Study of tide prediction method influenced by nonperiodic factors based on support vector machines

Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the amount of data. According to the movement of celestial bodies, and considering the insufficient tidal characteristics of historical data which are impacted by the nonperiodic weather, a tidal prediction method is designed based on support vector machine (SVM) to carry out the simulation experiment by using tidal data from Xiamen Tide Gauge, Luchaogang Tide Gauge and Weifang Tide Gauge individually. And the results show that the model satisfactorily carries out the tide prediction which is influenced by noncyclical factors. At the same time, it also proves that the proposed prediction method, which when compared with harmonic analysis method and the BP neural network method, has faster modeling speed, higher prediction precision and stronger generalization ability.     

黑河山区流域平均坡长的计算与径流模拟

 流域平均坡长是侧向流和汇流时间计算的重要参数,其会影响地表径流的计算。应用SWAT 2005和ArcView GIS 3.2集成的AVSWAT模型,对黑河干流上游山区流域莺落峡出山口径流进行模拟,发现其计算的流域平均坡长存在较大误差,进而影响到模拟结果。利用子流域内已知的平均坡度和平均坡长建立回归方程,计算各子流域的平均坡长,替换AVSWAT计算的不合理值,在保持其他参数不变的情况下,模拟的月径流纳什系数从0.60提高到0.75,模拟结果得到显著提高。敏感性分析结果和径流曲线数(CN2)的分析也间接验证了流域平均坡长修正方法的可行性。在修正流域平均坡长后,对AVSWAT模型的其他参数CN2等进行优化,模拟的月径流的纳什系数达到0.81,表明本文建议的流域平均坡长计算方法是可以应用到实际的干旱区黑河流域并取得较好模拟效果。     

山东省平邑左庄石膏矿区非采空致塌机理与治理方法

平邑左庄石膏矿区曾发生过3次地面塌陷,但井下实地调查发现,该矿区地面塌陷并非地下采空塌陷波及地表后而引发的地面塌陷。根据矿区地质环境条件、采矿方法及井巷工程布置等因素,分析认为地面塌陷原因是矿山布置的第一开采中段未预留出足够的顶柱厚度,致使井下回采时揭穿矿房顶柱接触到上覆第四纪松散盖层,第四纪孔隙水携带泥砂泄入矿坑发生潜蚀作用,在矿房顶柱与第四纪松散盖层之间形成"天窗式"砂漏,第四纪松散盖层中逐渐形成土洞,土洞扩大并塌陷后引发地面塌陷。     

全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)经济评估概念框架:以中国稻鱼共生系统为例（英文）

全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)项目是2002年由联合国粮农组织(FAO)发起,旨在建立全球重要农业文化遗产及其有关的景观、生物多样性、知识和文化保护体系,并在世界范围内得到认可与保护,使之成为可持续管理的基础。农业文化遗产地往往被认为比非遗产地更具经济价值,但目前还没有经济学分析来证明这一点,也没有任何针对农业文化遗产地的复杂的经济性能标准来长期监测其经济功能。本研究的目的在于建立一个经济评价方法,可用于遗产地与非遗产地之间比较。为此,本文选择了成本效益分析(CBA)方法。鉴于数据可得性的限制,经济分析的框架应该包括分析的方向、假设和数据要求,由此指导未来对GIAHS的经济评价。本研究选择中国青田稻鱼共生系统作为案例,根据数据可得性并针对不同活动(旅游,国内和国际市场的销售产品)以及相似系统间比较进行计算。     

无人机航空伽马能谱数据处理中大气氡的修正

介绍了无人机航空伽马能谱数据处理中大气氡修正的一种方法——能谱比法的原理与方法、数据处理过程及其在无人机航空伽马能谱数据处理中的应用。使用该方法对喀什地区的无人机航空伽马能谱进行修正,修正后的航放U较好地反映了该区的地质情况,可以应用到生产实践中去。     

LA-ICP-MS Analysis of Magnetite and Application in Genesis of Mineral Deposit

Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is well characterized by the in-situ, real time, lower limit of detection and high space resolution, etc. Therefore, it is more excellent in the analysis of trace element for varied minerals in comparison to other micro-zone analysis technologies. Magnetite as a common mineral from different deposits and rocks has been focused on chemical compositions by researchers worldwide. In fact, as the insignificant matrix effect for most elements in magnetite, analysis results could be calculated effectively against Fe-rich silicate glass as the reference material. Therefore, researches on trace element distribution of magnetite have been developed rapidly in recent years, and it has a wide application prospect in reflecting the condition of ore-forming, discriminating different deposit types and indicating prospecting exploration. Comparing varied previous discrimination diagrams about magnetite via collecting trace element data from available literatures based on 25 deposits, we found that there was an urgent need for further detailing and reexamining the boundary of fields representing different genetic types, and it was vital for interpreting the data through carefully petrographical observation before analysis. In addition, we discussed several complex physicochemical factors, which would influence the element concentration of magmatite in igneous and hydrothermal processes, such as melt/fluid composition, temperature, cooling rate, pressure, oxygen fugacity, sulfur fugacity and silica activity. In magma stage, Magnetite’s components are closely related to melts composition and differentiation, while fluid features would also significantly change magnetie's components. Furthermore, there is serious interference for discriminating the genesis of magnetite because of late stage fluids and equilibrium again in subsolidus condition. This paper reviewed the developments of trace elements analysis by LA-ICP-MS and important applications about magnetite in mineral deposit so that unique thoughts for the research on mineralization and ore-forming processes could be obtained.     

巴尔喀什成矿带阿克沙套云英岩型钨钼矿床地质特征与铼-锇同位素测年分析

哈萨克斯坦阿克沙套大型钨钼矿床处于中亚成矿域巴尔喀什成矿带内。该矿床为云英岩型浸染状矿床, 具有云英岩型矿床的典型矿物组合、围岩蚀变、矿体形态和结构构造。矿区产出有伟晶岩、石英长石脉, 含有钨钼矿、石英和黄玉云英岩矿体等。本文对阿克沙套钨钼矿床辉钼矿样品进行了铼-锇同位素分析, 得到辉钼矿模式年龄(平均值)为289.3 Ma, 处在早二叠世。分析认为, 阿克沙套云英岩型钨钼成矿作用是晚石炭世中亚成矿域大规模斑岩型铜钼成矿作用延续的结果, 属中亚造山带海西晚期构造-岩浆活动的产物。      

Optimization of conditions for tetraspore release and assessment of photosynthetic activities for different generation branches of Gracilaria lemaneiformis Bory

Gracilaria lemaneiformis Bory is an economically important alga that is primarily used for agar production. Although tetraspores are ideal seeds for the cultivation of G. lemaneiformis, the most popular culture method is currently based on vegetative fragments, which is labor-intensive and time-consuming. In this study, we optimized the conditions for tetraspore release and evaluated the photosynthetic activities of different colonies formed from the branches of G. lemaneiformis using a PAM (pulse-amplitude-modulated) measuring system. The results showed that variations in temperature and salinityhad significant effects on tetraspore yield. However, variations in the photon flux density (from 15 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ to 480 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) had no apparent effect on tetraspore yield. Moreover, the PAM-parameters Y(I), Y(II), ETR(I), ETR(II) and F _v/F _m of colonies formed from different branches showed the same trend: parameter values of first generation branches>second generation branches>third generation branches. These results suggest that the photosynthetic activities of different colonies of branches changed with the same trend. Furthermore, photosynthesis in G. lemaneiformis was found to be involved in vegetative reproduction and tetraspore formation. Finally, the first generation branches grew slowly, but accumulated organic compounds to form large numbers of tetraspores. Taken together, these results showed that the first generation branches are ideal materials for the release of tetraspores.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地地表辐射与能量平衡

利用2013年塔克拉玛干沙漠塔中流动沙面地表辐射、土壤热通量、土壤温湿度和湍流通量观测资料,分析了沙漠腹地地表辐射和能量收支特征及闭合状况。结果表明：除潜热通量外,其余地表辐射各分量和能量平衡分量的月平均日变化结果整体均表现为标准的单峰型日循环形态,其中R_s↓与R_s↑变化同步,R_l↑、R_l↓滞后R_s↓0.5 ~ 1 h。各分量均表现出夏季高、春秋季次之、冬季低的季节波动性。干旱和极低的植被覆盖造成沙漠腹地全年潜热通量始终较为微弱,约占净辐射的2.8%,感热通量成为能量的主要消耗形式,约占净辐射的49%。偶尔的降水会刺激潜热通量突然增加。地表反照率相对较高且稳定,日变化呈早晚大、正午小的“U”型趋势,并具有明显的冬季高、夏季低的季节波动性,年均值0.28,月均值0.25~0.32。能量残差各月的日变化也均呈单峰曲线,日出后和日落前能量闭合程度最佳,并出现过闭合现象,全年夏季小,春秋季次之,冬季较大,月平均日峰值5.1~99.9 W·m^-2。土壤表层热储存是影响该地区能量平衡的重要因子之一,考虑表层土壤热存储后,地表能量闭合率达75.3%,能量闭合率夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季,白天相比夜间有大幅提升。     

基于数值模拟和统计拟合分析华北冬季一次大范围重污染过程的形成机理

基于WRF/Chem（Weather Research Forecasting/Chemistry）模式对2015年11月25日至12月2日我国北方一次大范围PM2.5（空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5 μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物）重污染过程进行了模拟。与观测资料对比表明,模式能够较好地模拟出PM2.5浓度及气象因素的变化趋势,结果适用于此次污染事件的机理分析。动力、热力条件及化学转化等因素对此次强污染事件形成的机理分析表明,动力因子主要通过表面风和垂直风切变的减弱对此次污染事件造成影响,边界层逆温等热力因子促进了大气稳定性的增强,不利于污染物扩散。依据PM2.5组成成分变化分析可知,硝酸盐、硫酸盐和有机碳在此次事件中含量增加,说明机动车汽车尾气和燃煤排放所致的二次气溶胶生成对PM2.5污染加剧起重要贡献。多元线性回归分析和多因子相对贡献率量化解析结果表明,热力因子在此次污染过程中起主要作用,方差贡献率为52%,动力因子次之,方差贡献率为34%,而化学转化方差贡献率约为14%,说明气象条件,尤其是热力条件是引起此次污染事件的主要原因。