南京过去100年极端日降水量模拟研究

在南京过去100年日降水资料的基础上,利用极值理论中的区组模型和阈值模型分析了极端日降水分布特征.首先通过广义极值(GEV)模型模拟了日降水的年极值序列(AMDR),用极大似然估计(MLE)方法计算了模型的参数,并借助轮廓似然函数估计出参数的精确误差区间,同时采用4种较直观的诊断图形对模型的合理性进行全面评估,结果表明Frechet是区组模型中最适合描述极端日降水分布特征的函数.其次,将日降水序列分3种情景构建极值分布的阈值模型(GPD),考察了观测数据的规模对应用该模型的限制,重点讨论了如何针对给定观测样本选择合适的阈值收集极值信息.分析结果认为,长度不小于50年的气候序列,采用24 mm的日降水量作为临界阈值均能进行GPD分析.该阈值处于年降水序列第91个百分位附近,即对目前长度为50年左右的日观测资料,第91个百分位点以上的数据基本能满足GPD研究的需要.另外,根据GEV和GPD对未来极端降水重现水平的推断情况,GPD预测值的置信区间要比GEV的窄,极值推断的不确定性相对也较小,更适合用于研究中国目前规模不大的气候资料.最后,对GPD模型的形状参数和尺度参数进行变换,分别引入描述线性变化的动态变量,分析降水序列中潜在的变异行为对极值理论应用的影响.这种变异包括降水序列中长期的均值变化及百分位变化,从模拟结果看,暂未发现资料变异行为对极值分析产生显著于扰.     

A geologic study of the Juan del Grijalva landslide,the most important mass movement during the last century in Mexico

On November 4th 2007, along the Grijalva River in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, has occurred one of the largest landslides ever known. This landslide, known as Juan del Grijalva, destroyed the town of the same name, killing 20 people, and moved 55 million cubic meters of rock and debris down slope to completely block the Grijalva River. In order to understand the characteristics and factors that triggered the Juan del Grijalva landslide, geologic studies were conducted at the site. The results indicate that the landslide was composed of a lithologic sequence of thin-bedded shales and thin to medium-thick-bedded sandstones. This was faulted into several blocks dipping in the same sense as the mass movement. The main triggering factor was the increment of the pore pressure into the lithologic unit due to water saturation after 5 days of heavy rain before the incident. According to records from the last century, the Juan del Grijalva mass movement represents one of the largest mass movements recorded all over the world. The risk conditions of the area after the landslide lead to the rapid construction of an artificial channel to drain the accumulating mass of water upstream and therefore prevent a future catastrophic inundation down stream.     

塔里木盆地吐木休克构造带断裂构造分析

吐木休克断裂位于塔里木盆地西部,是一条大型基底卷入型断裂构造带,构成塔里木盆地次级构造单元阿瓦提凹陷和巴楚断隆的分界。根据系统的地震资料解释,可以将吐木休克断裂分为西段、中段和东段3部分,各段构造特征有所差异。西段,为单一的基底卷入型高角度逆冲断层,倾向巴楚断隆; 中段,除倾向巴楚断隆的主冲断层外,倾向相反的反冲断层越来越清晰,楔状冲断构造的轮廓逐渐显现出来。同时,在断层上盘还发育第四纪正断层; 东段,倾向巴楚断隆的主冲断层,向上断至中寒武统,未断开中寒武统以上的地层,其冲断位移量完全为倾向阿瓦提凹陷的反冲断层所吸收,形成典型的楔状冲断构造。根据地震资料解释,认为吐木休克断裂带主要存在两期断裂构造:深部高角度基底卷入型逆冲断裂带和其上叠加的浅部正断层。前者形成于库车组沉积前,在库车组沉积期间持续活动,并在新近纪晚期定型; 后者是本次研究首次发现的,形成于第四纪早中期,仅发育在吐木休克断裂带的中部。     

Adsorption and Desorption of Phosphate on Calcite and Aragonite in Seawater

The adsorption and desorption of phosphate on calcite and aragonite were investigated as a function of temperature (5–45 °C)and salinity (0–40) in seawater pre-equilibrated with CaCO₃. An increase in temperature increased the equilibrium adsorption; whereas an increase in salinity decreased the adsorption. Adsorption measurements made in NaCl were lower than the results in seawater. The higher values in seawater were due to the presence of Mg²⁺ and Ca²⁺ ions. The increase was 5 times greater for Ca²⁺ than Mg²⁺. The effects ofCa²⁺ and Mg²⁺ are diminished with the addition of SO₄ ^2- apparently due to the formation of MgSO₄ and CaSO₄ complexes in solution and/or SO₄ ^2- adsorption on the surface of CaCO₃. The adsorbed Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ on CaCO₃ (at carbonate sites) may act as bridges to PO₄ ^3- ions. The bridging effect of Ca²⁺is greater than Mg²⁺ apparently due to the stronger interactions of Ca²⁺ with PO₄ ^3-.The apparent effect of salinity on the adsorption of PO₄ was largely due to changes in the concentration of HCO₃ ^- in the solutions. An increase in the concentration of HCO₃ ^- caused the adsorption of phosphate to decrease, especially at low salinities. The adsorption at the same level of HCO₃ ^- (2 mM) was nearly independent of salinity. All of the adsorption measurements were modeled empirically using a Langmuir-type adsorption isotherm[ [PO₄]_ad = K_mC_m[PO₄]_T/(1 +K_m [PO₄]_T) , ]where [PO₄]_ad and [PO₄]_T are the adsorbed and total dissolved phosphate concentrations, respectively. The values of C_m (the maximum monolayer adsorption capacity, (mol/g) and K_m (the adsorption equilibrium constant, g/(mol) over the entire temperature (t, °C) and salinity (S) range were fitted to[ C_m = 17.067 + 0.1707t - 0.4693S + 0.0082S² ( = 0.7) ][ ln K_m = - 2.412 + 0.0165t - 0.0004St - 0.0008S² ( = 0.1) ]These empirical equations reproduce all of our measurements of[PO₄]_ad up to 14 mol/g and within ±0.7 mol/g.The kinetic data showed that the phosphate uptake on carbonate minerals appears to be a multi-step process. Both the adsorption and desorption were quite fast in the first stage (less than 30 min) followed by a much slower process (lasting more than 1 week). Our results indicate that within 24 hours aragonite has a higher sorption capacity than calcite. The differences between calcite and aragonite become smaller with time. Consequently, the mineral composition of the sediments may affect the short-term phosphate adsorption and desorption on calcium carbonate. Up to 80 % of the adsorbed phosphate is released from calcium carbonate over one day. The amount of PO₄ left on the CaCO₃ is close to the equilibrium adsorption. The release of PO₄ from calcite is faster than from aragonite. Measurements with Florida Bay sediments produced results between those for calcite and aragonite. Our results indicate that the calcium carbonate can be both a sink and source of phosphate in natural waters.     

A geospatial framework to estimate depth of scour under buildings due to storm surge in coastal areas

Hurricanes and tropical storms represent one of the major hazards in coastal communities. Storm surge generated by strong winds and low pressure from these systems have the potential to bring extensive flooding in coastal areas. In many cases, the damage caused by the storm surge may exceed the damage from the wind resulting in the total collapse of buildings. Therefore, in coastal areas, one of the sources for major structural damage could be due to scour, where the soil below the building that serves as the foundation is swept away by the movement of the water. The existing methodologies to forecast hurricane flood damage do not differentiate between the different damage mechanisms (e.g., inundation vs. scour). Currently, there are no tools available that predominantly focus on forecasting scour-related damage for buildings. Such a tool could provide significant advantages for planning and/or preparing emergency responses. Therefore, the focus of this study was to develop a methodology to predict possible scour depth due to hurricane storm surges using an automated ArcGIS tool that incorporates the expected hurricane conditions (flow depth, velocity, and flood duration), site-specific building information, and the associated soil types for the foundation. A case study from Monmouth County (NJ), where the scour damages from 2012 Hurricane Sandy were recorded after the storm, was used to evaluate the accuracy of the developed forecasting tool and to relate the scour depth to potential scour damage. The results indicate that the developed tool provides relatively consistent results with the field observations.     

Extending the double-difference location technique to mining applications part I: Numerical study

The location of the seismic event hypocenter is the very first task undertaken when studying any seismological problem. The accuracy of the solution can significantly influence consecutive stages of analysis, so there is a continuous demand for new, more efficient and accurate location algorithms. It is important to recognize that there is no single universal location algorithm which will perform equally well in any situation. The type of seismicity, the geometry of the recording seismic network, the size of the controlled area, tectonic complexity, are the most important factors influencing the performance of location algorithms. In this paper we propose a new location algorithm called the extended double difference (EDD) which combines the insensitivity of the double-difference (DD) algorithm to the velocity structure with the special demands imposed by mining: continuous change of network geometry and a very local recording capability of the network for dominating small induced events. The proposed method provides significantly better estimation of hypocenter depths and origin times compared to the classical and double-difference approaches, the price being greater sensitivity to the velocity structure than the DD approach. The efficiency of both algorithms for the epicentral coordinates is similar.     

基于生态系统的海洋管理理论与实践

海洋孕育了丰富的生态系统服务功能,包括为人类提供多种海产食物、净化海洋环境和提供宜人景观及发展空间等。随着工程科技水平的提高,人类对海洋资源和空间的开发利用越来越多、越来越快,对海洋生态系统的影响也越来越大,这一问题在我国尤为突出。近20年来一些发达国家通过推行基于生态系统的海洋管理(MEBM),在海洋生态系统的框架下规范和管理开发活动,特别是在解决区域性海洋管理问题方面取得了一定成效,值得我们借鉴。概述了海洋生态系统及其服务功能,回顾了海洋开发中存在的问题以及MEBM的发展历程,系统阐述了MEBM的原则和措施,剖析了国内外MEBM的成功案例,探讨了在中国实施MEBM的必要性和前提条件。近年来,我国依据海洋功能区划来管理海洋开发已取得一定的成果。建议以此为基础,强化相关生态科学研究及相应技术和法规支撑,从而为我国海洋经济可持续发展提供保障。     

Nonlinear coupled analysis of a single point mooring system

Coupled effects on a single point mooring(SPM) system subjected to the combined action of wind,waves and current are studied in this paper. Due to the complicatedness of the sea state and the huge size of the vessel,physical experimental study is both time consuming and uneconomical,whereas the numerical study is cost-effective and DNV software provides powerful SESAM software in solving the issues. This paper focuses on the modeling process of the SPM system,catenary equilibrium calculation,static analysis of the vessel in three different scenarios,and dynamic response simulation of the SPM system under environmental excitations. The three scenarios in study are as follows:the SPM is under the combined function of(a) wind,waves and current,(b) wind and waves,(c) current and waves. They are so set that one can compare the contributions of different types of loads in both static and dynamic studies. Numerical study shows that wind and current are the two major factors contributing to the mooring line tension,and surge and sway are the two dominant motions of the moored vessel subjected to environmental excitations.     

Observations and Estimations of Directional Spectrum of Sea Waves

The directional spectrum is one of the basic characteristics of sea waves. The observations of directional spectrum of sea waves were successfully conducted at platform Bohai 8 during 1991 and 1992 using a wave gage array for the first time in China. Based on the field data, the directional spectrum which depends on the wave growth is given in this paper. Before observations, the effects of the type of gage array, the distance between the gages and the platform itself on the measured results and the precision of some methods for estimating the directional spectrum were investigated and compared with the methods of numerical simulations and model tests of multi-direcitonal irregular waves. This ensures the quality of the observations and estimations of the directional spectrum.     

New Investigation on the Space Group of Chevkinite

Chevkinite specimen from a rare-earth mineral deposit in Sichuan,southwest ofChina have been studied in detail by means of transmission electron microscope(TEM).The selected area electron diffraction(SAED)and convergent beam electron diffraction(CBED)patterns,obtained from different crystal zone axis direction,proved coineidently that the space group of chevkinite is C2/m.Fringe lattice image obser-vation showed the mineral crystal is structurally uniform in microscale,and it is anideal specimen for electron diffraction analysis.The mineral studied here is similar to theone from Bayan Obo,Inner Mongolia,China,in chemical composition and REE distri-bution.The chemical formula of the crystal is(Ce,La,…,Ca)_4 Fe~2-(Fe,Ti,Nb)_2O_8 (Si_2O_7)_2 .From our study,we come to the conclusion that the space group of the natu-ral chevkinite is C2/m,instead of P2_1/a as synthetic one.Up to now,chevkinitecompositionally similar to the synthetic one,in which the complete replacements of Ce,La by Nd and Fe by Mg or Co o