Changes in Wind Speed and Extremes in Beijing during 1960--2008 Based on Homogenized Observations

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960–2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were-0.26,-0.39,-0.30,-0.12 and-0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 , respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about-0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960–2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966–1975 and 1992–2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.     

近50年环贝加尔湖区变暖对中国华北夏季降水的影响机理

利用1951-2007年中国722站逐月降水观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及1958-2002年逐月欧洲中心的ERA-40再分析资料,分析了近57年中国华北夏季降水的年代际变化特征,重点讨论了全球变暖背景下环贝加尔湖地表气温升高对中国华北夏季降水长期变化的影响机理.结果表明,华北夏季降水长期减少趋势与全球变暖存...     

气候变化背景下海河流域温度和湿度空间特征及其与水资源的关系

采用旋转主成分分析(REOF)方法,根据海河流域温度和相对湿度这两个主要气侯要素,将流域进行分区.海河流域的温度空间分布可分为4块区域:东北部、南部、西部和中部.流域的湿度空间分布可分为3块区域:东北部、南部与中西部.结合流域水资源空间分布特征的分析,发现流域温度和相对湿度分布与水资源分布具有显著的一致性.     

2009年秋末山西大暴雪天气过程分析

利用高空、地面和卫星云图资料,对2009年11月9-12日山西出现的有气象记录以来最强的一场大暴雪天气过程进行综合分析.结果表明:高空强盛的西南气流和低层东北气流以及地面回流为暴雪过程提供了有利的流场配置,500hPa阶梯槽和700hPa切变线是主要影响系统,低空急流的持续及水汽的辐合为这次暴雪提供了充足的水汽,卫星云...     

Development of updateable model output statistics (UMOS) system for air temperature over South Korea

In this study, a Updateable Model Output Statistics (UMOS) system has been developed for the forecast of 3-h temperature over South Korea using two significantly different models’ (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (KWRF)) outputs based on the Canadian UMOS system (Wilson and Vallee, 2002; 2003). The UMOS system is designed to consider the local climatology and the model’s forecasting skills. The 20 most frequently selected potential predictors for each season, station, and forecast projection time from the 67 potential predictors of the Model Output Statistics (MOS) system, were used as potential predictors of the UMOS system. The UMOS equations are developed by a weighted blending of the new and old model data, with weights chosen to emphasize the new model data while including enough old model data in the development to ensure stable equations and a smooth transition to dependency on the new model. The UMOS equations were updated regularly at a predefined time interval to consider the changes of covariance structure between the new model output and observations as the new model data increase. The validation results showed that seasonal mean bias, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients for the total forecast projection times are ?0.379～0.055°C, 1.951～2.078°C, and 0.741～0.965, respectively. Although, the forecasting skills of UMOS system are very consistent without regard to the season and geographic location, the performance is slightly better in autumn and winter than in spring and summer, and better in coastal regions than in inland region. When we take into account the significant differences of the RDAPS and KWRF, the UMOS system can be used as a supplementary forecasting tool of the MOS system for 3-h temperature over South Korea. However, the UMOS system is very sensitive to the selected number and/or types of predictors. Therefore, more work is needed to enable the use of the UMOS system in operation, including tuning of the number and types of potential predictors and automation of the updating processes of the UMOS equations.     

规则桥梁抗震性能水准的定义及其量化描述

基于性能的结构抗震设计是各国结构抗震设计规范未来的主要发展方向,虽然其理论框架已基本形成,然而其中至关重要的结构抗震性能水准的定义及其量化描述问题,目前仍处于研究探讨阶段.本文从公路梁式桥震害现象出发,采用极限状态设计概念,对规则桥梁在地震作用下的性能水准予以明确的定义;并以墩顶漂移率作为设计参数,通过对大量试验数据的...     

基于ArcGIS的1:80万吉林省地震构造图绘制技术

利用ArcGIS平台完成1:80万吉林省地震构造图绘制工作,由此表述专业图件的一般绘制过程与主要技术手段.对其项目的一般绘制过程,包括组织实施方式、原始资料规范化、图件的专业分层做简要说明.对绘制过程中的技术难点、技术手段,如:地理信息数据库的建立、数据导人、图像矢量化、空间归并、符号化等关键技术,做深人探讨.文中介绍...     

安徽省数字化地电场特征初步研究

本文基于安徽省现有的蒙城和嘉山数字化地电场数据,辅以其他地区一些典型地电场台站的数据,通过日变形态、变幅、相关性和频谱分析等方法对数字化地电场的基本特征进行研究,发现多台地电场变化既具有普遍的相似性又各有差异,体现了地电场的全球性和区域性。     

Contourlet变换在局部角度属性提取中的应用

为了直观展示地质的构造走向、暗示细小裂缝信息,便于地震资料解释,应用Contourlet变换和无抽样Contourlet变换提取地震剖面的局部角度属性,提出了基于Contourlet变换的局部角度属性提取方法.首先用Contourlet变换或无抽样Contourlet变换将地震剖面分解成为不同尺度下的方向子带,然后将不...     

盈江5.8级地震震害特点分析及讨论

2011年3月10日12点58分,云南省盈江县发生了5.8级地震,造成25人死亡,314人受伤(其中重伤134人),直接经济损失23.8亿元。本文根据地震现场调查资料,阐述了地震受灾区的环境及其地质构造背景,分析了场地效应及断层效应,对震害特点进行了较为全面的分析总结。