ABSTRACTThere is an implicit assumption in most work that the parameters calibrated based on observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. However, this might not be true due to parameter instability. This paper investigates the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in a hydrological model under climate change. Parameter transferability is investigated with three parameter sets identified for different climatic conditions, which are: wet, intermediate and dry. A parameter set based on the baseline period (1961–1990) is also investigated for comparison. For uncertainty analysis, a k-simulation set approach is proposed instead of employing the traditional optimization method which uses a single best-fit parameter set. The results show that the parameter set from the wet sub-period performs the best when transferred into wet climate condition, while the parameter set from the baseline period is the most appropriate when transferred into dry climate condition. The largest uncertainty of simulated daily high flows for 2011–2040 is from the parameter set trained in the dry sub-period, while that of simulated daily medium and low flows lies in the parameter set from the intermediate calibration sub-period. For annual changes in the future period, the uncertainty with the parameter set from the intermediate sub-period is the largest, followed by the wet sub-period and dry sub-period. Compared with high and medium flows/runoffs, the uncertainty of low flows/runoffs is much smaller for both simulated daily flows and annual runoffs. For seasonal runoffs, the largest uncertainty is from the intermediate sub-period, while the smallest is from the dry sub-period. Apart from that, the largest uncertainty can be observed for spring runoffs and the lowest one for autumn runoffs. Compared with the traditional optimization method, the k-simulation set approach shows many more advantages, particularly being able to provide uncertainty information to decision support for watershed management under climate change.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
Laizhou Bay, located in the northwest of Shandong Peninsula, has complex transitional environments between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. In the present study, a total of 122, 131, and 139 species were collected in spring, summer, and autumn 2011, respectively. Species constitutions of macrobenthos were grouped into four phyla, of which annelida were the most abundant phylum, the average biomass proportion of echinodermata was the lowest, and the proportion of important species for mollusca was the highest. The structure of the macrobenthic community showed significant differences between sites, and greater divergence was observed between the third site (S03) and other stations. The ABC plots showed that the biomass curve lay below the abundance curve, and the W‐statistic value was negative. The result of the BOPA index showed that two stations had moderate ecological status in spring and that there were two heavily polluted sites and one moderately polluted site in summer. The BIO‐ENV analyses indicated that the grain‐size fractions together with trace metals (Hg, Pb, Zn, Cu, and Cr) could be considered as the major environmental variables influencing the macrobenthic patterns. The results together demonstrated that the macrobenthic communities in Laizhou Bay were negatively affected, perhaps by the tremendous impact of heavy metals in the sediments. 相似文献
In the age of Big Data, the widespread use of location‐awareness technologies has made it possible to collect spatio‐temporal interaction data for analyzing flow patterns in both physical space and cyberspace. This research attempts to explore and interpret patterns embedded in the network of phone‐call interaction and the network of phone‐users’ movements, by considering the geographical context of mobile phone cells. We adopt an agglomerative clustering algorithm based on a Newman‐Girvan modularity metric and propose an alternative modularity function incorporating a gravity model to discover the clustering structures of spatial‐interaction communities using a mobile phone dataset from one week in a city in China. The results verify the distance decay effect and spatial continuity that control the process of partitioning phone‐call interaction, which indicates that people tend to communicate within a spatial‐proximity community. Furthermore, we discover that a high correlation exists between phone‐users’ movements in physical space and phone‐call interaction in cyberspace. Our approach presents a combined qualitative‐quantitative framework to identify clusters and interaction patterns, and explains how geographical context influences communities of callers and receivers. The findings of this empirical study are valuable for urban structure studies as well as for the detection of communities in spatial networks. 相似文献
Agent-based simulation has become an important modeling approach in activity-travel analysis. Social activities account for a large amount of travel and have an important effect on activity-travel scheduling. Participants in joint activities usually have various options regarding location, participants, and timing and take different approaches to make their decisions. In this context, joint activity participation requires negotiation among agents involved, so that conflicts among the agents can be addressed. Existing mechanisms do not fully provide a solution when utility functions of agents are nonlinear and non-monotonic. Considering activity-travel scheduling in time and space as an application, we propose a novel negotiation approach, which takes into account these properties, such as continuous and discrete issues, and nonlinear and non-monotonic utility functions, by defining a concession strategy and a search mechanism. The results of experiments show that agents having these properties can negotiate efficiently. Furthermore, the negotiation procedure affects individuals’ choices of location, timing, duration, and participants. 相似文献
Of great importance for guiding numerical weather and climate predictions, understanding predictability of the atmosphere in the ocean − atmosphere coupled system is the first and critical step to understand predictability of the Earth system. However, previous predictability studies based on prefect model assumption usually depend on a certain model. Here we apply the predictability study with the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent and Attractor Radius to the products of multiple re-analyses and forecast models in several operational centers to realize general predictability of the atmosphere in the Earth system. We first investigated the predictability characteristics of the atmosphere in NCEP, ECMWF and UKMO coupled systems and some of their uncoupled counterparts and other uncoupled systems. Although the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System shows higher skills in geopotential height over the tropics, there is no certain model providing the most precise forecast for all variables on all levels and the multi-model ensemble not always outperforms a single model. Improved low-frequency signals from the air − sea and stratosphere − troposphere interactions that extend predictability of the atmosphere in coupled system suggests the significance of air − sea coupling and stratosphere simulation in practical forecast development, although uncertainties exist in the model representation for physical processes in air − sea interactions and upper troposphere. These inspire further exploration on predictability of ocean and stratosphere as well as sea − ice and land processes to advance our understanding of interactions of Earth system components, thus enhancing weather − climate prediction skills.