Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.     

NanoSIMS analysis of organic carbon from the Tissint Martian meteorite: Evidence for the past existence of subsurface organic‐bearing fluids on Mars

Two petrographic settings of carbonaceous components, mainly filling open fractures and occasionally enclosed in shock‐melt veins, were found in the recently fallen Tissint Martian meteorite. The presence in shock‐melt veins and the deuterium enrichments (δD up to +1183‰) of these components clearly indicate a pristine Martian origin. The carbonaceous components are kerogen‐like, based on micro‐Raman spectra and multielemental ratios, and were probably deposited from fluids in shock‐induced fractures in the parent rock of Tissint. After precipitation of the organic matter, the rock experienced another severe shock event, producing the melt veins that encapsulated a part of the organic matter. The C isotopic compositions of the organic matter (δ¹³C = ?12.8 to ?33.1‰) are significantly lighter than Martian atmospheric CO₂ and carbonate, providing a tantalizing hint for a possible biotic process. Alternatively, the organic matter could be derived from carbonaceous chondrites, as insoluble organic matter from the latter has similar chemical and isotopic compositions. The presence of organic‐rich fluids that infiltrated rocks near the surface of Mars has significant implications for the study of Martian paleoenvironment and perhaps to search for possible ancient biological activities on Mars.     

雄安新区雾迷山组岩溶热储特征与有利区

为了深化对雄安新区中深层地热资源的规模化开发利用,以露头、岩心、薄片、钻井资料与地震测线解释成果为基础,分析雄安新区中元古界蓟县系雾迷山组热储岩石学和储集空间特征,研究了雾迷山组热储沉积相模式、岩相古地理和孔隙度、渗透率分布特征;结合构造演化和热储成岩作用类型,分析雾迷山组热储岩溶发育期次、岩溶作用、岩溶古地貌分布特征,针对岩溶主要发育层,厘清控制因素,明确雄安新区雾迷山组岩溶热储特征;综合上述特征,结合雄安新区地温梯度、断裂分布及水动力等因素,优选出该区雾迷山组岩溶热储有利勘探靶区。研究结果表明：雄安新区蓟县系雾迷山组热储有利岩性主要为叠层石白云岩、藻凝块白云岩、颗粒白云岩,藻云坪微相、滩微相易发育各类溶蚀作用,云坪易发育裂缝,储集空间类型为孔隙、溶洞和裂缝3大系统。岩溶作用类型可分为同生—准同生岩溶、表生岩溶和埋藏岩溶,自雾迷山组沉积后主要发育于芹峪期、印支期和燕山期的表生岩溶和晚喜山期的埋藏溶蚀,对雾迷山组储层有着建设性作用,燕山—早喜马拉雅期对岩溶热储的形成演化起决定作用;同期主要伴随3期高角度裂缝发育,这些高角度缝增加了储集空间与输导体系,促进期后的相关溶蚀作用;裂缝在白云岩中最发育, 灰质云岩次之,泥质云岩最不发育。孔隙度和渗透率区域上分布有3个高值区。岩溶古地貌在印支期前北低南高,在印支期及以后,地貌北高南低,北部岩溶作用强烈,南部次高地也发育岩溶带。溶蚀相为最有利的成岩相区,溶蚀—泥质充填相为较有利的成岩相区。研究区雾迷山组岩溶储集层分布主要受岩性（包括组分、结构、厚度）、成岩相带、构造（包括断裂、裂缝、不整合面）和古地貌等方面因素的控制,地热勘探最有利靶区位于大王镇西部及南部、容城—八于、雄县—赵北口镇西部、大营镇、高深1井—高阳等区带。     

准噶尔盆地四棵树凹陷侏罗系烃源岩特征及油源分析

侏罗系是四棵树凹陷油气勘探的重要目的层,进一步查明侏罗系油气来源,落实生烃中心,对今后勘探选区选带十分重要。本文在对侏罗系烃源岩有机质丰度、类型、成熟度以及埋藏史和生烃潜力分析的基础上,开展了原油分类、油源对比及油气运移分析研究。结果表明,下侏罗统八道湾组主要发育湖相泥岩和河沼—三角洲相煤系两类烃源岩,有机质类型较好,丰度较高,主体处于低成熟—成熟阶段,局部演化程度高,生气潜力大;八道湾组具晚期快速埋藏生烃特点,四棵树凹陷主体以生油为主;生物标志化合物特征及其指纹对比发现,中侏罗统头屯河组含A、B两类原油,A类原油主要源自八道湾组中段湖相泥岩,生油母质以低等水生生物为主,B类原油的生油母质主要为高等植物,应主要来自八道湾组上、下段煤系地层;据三环萜烷/五环三萜烷和重排甾烷/规则甾烷反映出的运移效应推断,卡因迪克构造带以南至西湖构造之间存在八道湾组烃源岩的生油中心,是卡6井区和西湖1井头屯河组原油的主要供烃区,该区域是今后侏罗系勘探的有利区带。     

良性对称性脂肪瘤病的影像诊断

目的 探讨Madelung`s病的CT及MR表现。 资料与方法 结合文献回顾分析16例良性对称性脂肪瘤病患者的临床资料。回顾性分析2003年5月~2005年12月间我院影像及临床科室证实的Madelung`s病16例。男性15例,女性1例。应用GE Process F-II型多层螺旋CT扫描机以及XGY OPER-0.35T永磁性磁共振扫描仪。行颈部及下颌部扫描。磁共振扫描常规应用脂肪抑制序列。 结果 16例病人中4人表现为颈后部、双侧肩部皮下脂肪过度堆积;9例患者表现为双侧颌下脂肪层增厚、双侧咽旁间隙、腮腺周围间隙脂肪过度堆积;3例病人表现为双侧颌下、颈前部、双侧锁骨上窝深浅筋膜间隙脂肪组织过度堆积。CT及MR增强扫描未见异常强化,其内血管分布与走行未见异常。磁共振压脂像显示为正常脂肪组织,未见其它异常信号显示。     

浙江近岸海域悬浮颗粒物中磷的赋存形态及分布特征研究

磷元素是海洋基础营养盐之一,其赋存形态及分布直接影响海区的初级生产力,是海洋生物地球化学循环的重要驱动力。但大河河口与近海等重要的水生关键带水动力循环过程复杂,导致悬浮颗粒物(SPM )中磷元素的赋存形态和分布特征变化多端,亟须深入研究。根据2016年春季(4−5月)、夏季(7月)和秋季(9−10月)对浙江近岸海域的调查结果,本研究分析了浙江近岸海域SPM中总磷(TPP)、无机磷(PIP)和有机磷(POP)的含量水平、空间分布特征和影响因素。结果表明,浙江近岸海域SPM中TPP含量范围为0.13～66.13 μmol/L,均值为3.35 μmol/L;PIP含量范围为0.03～34.19 μmol/L,均值为1.97 μmol/L;POP含量范围为0.06～31.94 μmol/L,均值为1.39 μmol/L。PIP是浙江近岸海域水体中TPP的主要存在形式,占52.3%。春季浙江近岸海域表层TPP含量占总磷(TP)含量的19.3%～97.7%。春、秋季的SPM中,TPP、PIP和POP含量空间分布相似,均呈现由内湾向外海逐渐降低的变化趋势。PIP、POP与SPM呈显著的正相关性,表现出高SPM含量的海区有着较高的颗粒态磷含量,说明其受陆源输入的影响。春季盐度大于28且SPM含量小于20 mg/L的外侧远海海域,POP与Chl a的相关系数和斜率均明显高于PIP与Chl a的相关系数和斜率,说明该区域浮游植物是POP的主要贡献来源。     

Electrical properties of dry polycrystalline olivine mixed with various chromite contents: Implications for the high conductivity anomalies in subduction zones

Chromite,a crucial high-conductivity mineral phase of peridotite in ophiolite suites,has a significant effect on the ele ctrical structure of subduction zones.The electrical conductivities of sintered polycrystalline olivine containing various volume percents of chromite(0,4,7,10,13,16,18,21,23,100 vol.%) were measured using a complex impedance spectroscopic technique in the frequency range of 10~(-1)-10~6 Hz under the conditions of1.0-3.0 GPa and 873-1223 K.The relationship between the conductivities of the chromite-bearing olivine aggregate s and temperatures conformed to the Arrhenius equation.The positive effect of pressure on the conductivities of the olivine-chromite systems was much weaker than that of temperature.The chromite content had an important effect on the conductivities of the olivine-chromite systems,and the bulk conductivities increased with increasing volume fraction of chromite to a certain extent.The inclusion of 16 vol.% chromite s dramatically enhanced the bulk conductivity,implying that the percolation thre shold of interconnectivity of chromite in the olivine-chromite systems is ～16 vol%.The fitted activation enthalpies for pure polycrystalline olivine,polycrystalline olivine with isolated chromite,polycrystalline olivine with interconnected chromites,and pure polycrystalline chromite were 1.2 5,0.78-0.8 7,0.48-0.54,and 0.47 eV, respectively.Based on the chemical compositions and activation enthalpies,small polaron conduction was proposed to be the dominant conduction mechanism for polycrystalline olivine with various chromite contents.Furthermore,the conductivities of polycrystalline olivine with interconnected chromite(10~(-1-5)-10~(0.5) S/m) provides a reasonable explanation for the high conductivity anomalies in subduction-related tectonic environments.     

1996年包头6.4级地震的地壳应变特征

根据GPS观测资料求出的水平地应变和由跨断层垂直形变计算出的速率强度累积率,研究了包头-大同地区1992～1995年、1995～1996年和1996～1999年的各时期的应变特征,并对包头6.4级(1996年5月3)地震前后的地应变进行对比,认为以压应变为主导的高值区可能是未来强震孕育的地区．面应变、主压应变、剪应变和趋势累积率同时较高的地区,强震危险性较大．一般低应变区和张应变为主导的地区,孕育强震的可能性小,属于比较稳定的地区．1992～1999年包头-大同地区的GPS水平应变的演变,反映了1996～1998年地震幕的孕育发展及结束的全过程．以压应变为主的高应变区和应变梯度带可作为未来强震危险区的判定标志之一．     

由GPS观测结果推导中国大陆现今水平应变场

以中国大陆及周边近400个GPS测站的水平运动速率为基础,给出了现今地壳水平应变场结果表明：①中国大陆水平应变为西强东弱,剪应变数值大于正应变数值(绝对值),应变量级一般为10-8/a,局部区域达到10-7/a,但应变分布不均匀;②南北向应变最突出的部位为中国西南部西段的喜马拉雅条带、西北部的36N~42N段及柴达木断块的北缘;③东西向应变西边缘变化最大．此外,由西向东还具有正负交替的变化特征;④REN(东-北向剪切应变)与Rmax(最大剪切应变)数值较大的区域分别是喜马拉雅条带、西北部的36N～42N段、柴达木断块的西部、川滇菱形块体,以及阿拉善、祁连及塔里木断块的交界区;⑤青藏块体周边以面收缩为主,内部则以面膨胀为主．其以北的地区以面收缩为主．西界数值最大,东部数值最小(除燕山构造带外);⑥西部西区主压应变为南北向,主张应变为东西向．西部东缘区主压应变为近东西向,主张应变为近南北向．川滇菱形块体主应变的方向发生了很大的变化,北部地区为东西压南北张,南部地区则恰好相反;⑦中国大陆的应变模式可能是断块模式与连续模式的组合．此外,小尺度优势应变可能是剪切应变．造成上述结果除与印度板块的碰撞及边界耦合有关外,还与深部物质的活动及地壳介质的物性有密切的关系．必须指出,由于GPS测站在空间上分布的不均匀性,那么,由此而来的应变场,其应变尺度也不一样．     

藏北安多—巴青地区侏罗纪含礁层系岩相及沉积环境

根据岩性及其组合特征,本文将西藏北部安多—巴青地区侏罗纪含礁地层划分为流水成因的颗粒岩岩相、流水成因的碎屑岩岩相、复成因的泥晶—泥质灰岩岩相、生物及生物化学成因的障积岩岩相、生物及生物化学成因的粘结—障积岩岩相和生物及生物化学成因的骨架岩岩相等6大类型,计16种岩相。它们构成了潮坪相组合、台地浅滩相组合、开阔台地相组合和台地生物礁相组合共4种岩相组合,并由下而上有规律地形成2种岩相序列,即陆源碎屑与碳酸盐混合台地相序列和碳酸盐台地相序列。