The groundwater interbasin flow, Qy, from the north of Yucca Flat into Yucca Flat simulated using the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model greatly exceeds assessments obtained using other approaches. This study aimed to understand the reasons for the overestimation and to examine whether the Qy estimate can be reduced. The two problems were tackled from the angle of model uncertainty by considering six models revised from the DVRFS model with different recharge components and hydrogeological frameworks. The two problems were also tackled from the angle of parametric uncertainty for each model by first conducting Morris sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and then conducting Monte Carlo simulations for the important parameters. The uncertainty analysis is general and suitable for tackling similar problems; the Morris sensitivity analysis has been utilized to date in only a limited number of regional groundwater modeling. The simulated Qy values were evaluated by using three kinds of calibration data (i.e., hydraulic head observations, discharge estimates, and constant‐head boundary flow estimates). The evaluation results indicate that, within the current DVRFS modeling framework, the Qy estimate can only be reduced to about half of the original estimate without severely deteriorating the goodness‐of‐fit to the calibration data. The evaluation results also indicate that it is necessary to develop a new hydrogeological framework to produce new flow patterns in the DVRFS model. The issues of hydrogeology and boundary flow are being addressed in a new version of the DVRFS model planned for release by the U.S. Geological Survey. 相似文献
Storm surges are cataclysmic natural disasters that occur along the coasts and are usually accompanied by large waves. The effects of coupled storm surges and waves can pose a significant threat to coastal security. Previous laboratory studies on the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal structures have typically utilized steady water levels and constant wave elements. An indoor simulation of the coupled processes of tides and waves is developed by adding a tide generation system to an existing laboratory wave basin to model continuous dynamic tide levels so that tide generation and wave-making occur synchronously in the pool. Specific experimental methods are given, which are applied to further study waves overtopping on artificial sea dikes and coastal flooding evolution under the coupled actions of tides and waves. The results of the overtopping discharge obtained by the test with a dynamic water level are compared with those obtained from steady water level tests and the existing empirical formula. In addition, the impacts of ecological coastal shelterbelts and structures on coastal flood processes and distributions are also investigated. The proposed simulation methods provide a new approach for studying the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal areas. The study also aims to provide a reference for coastal protective engineering.
Natural Hazards - The U.S. 2020 hurricane season was extraordinary because of a record number of named storms coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study draws lessons on how individual... 相似文献