2016年中国沿海海平面上升显著成因分析及影响

使用中国沿海及西北太平洋区域的水位、海温、气温、气压和风等水文气象资料,详细分析了2016年中国沿海海平面显著升高的成因及影响。分析结果表明:（1）2012-2016年,中国沿海海平面处于准2 a、4 a、准9 a和准19 a周期振荡的高位,几个周期振荡高位叠加,对该时段海平面上升起了一定的作用;（2）2016年,中国沿海气温和海温较1993-2011年的平均值分别高0.7℃与0.5℃,均处于1980年以来高位;气压较1993-2011年的平均值低0.2 hPa;（3）2016年4月、9月、10月和11月,中国沿海海平面均达到1980年以来同期高位,这4个月的风场距平值在东海以南均明显偏大,且以偏南向和向岸风为主,风生流使得海水向岸堆积,沿海长时间以增水为主,对当月局部海平面上升的贡献率达到40%~80%;（4）2016年,中国沿海降水总体偏多,局部区域降水量达到历史同期最高,加上沿海径流量的增加,对沿海局部海平面升高有一定贡献;（5）2016年9-10月,有5个台风相继影响我国南部沿海,持续的风暴潮增水导致台风影响期间的海平面高于当月平均海平面70~360 mm,风暴潮和洪涝灾害给当地造成直接经济损失超过30亿元。     

基于空间自相关的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE标准化研究

CPUE的观测往往不是独立的,而是存在空间相关性的。但是,大多数的CPUE标准化方法通常都假设名义CPUE在空间上是相互独立的。为此,本研究以西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼为例,采用2000-2014年1-5月中国大陆鱿钓生产统计数据以及对应的海表温度和叶绿素浓度数据,选择广义线性模型（general linear model,GLM）为基础模型,将空间自相关加入到GLM中,比较标准GLM和4种加入空间自相关的空间GLM的CPUE标准化。根据最小信息准则（Akaike Information Criterion,AIC）及贝叶斯信息准则（Bayesian Information Criterion,BIC）,空间自相关的GLM的CPUE标准化结果优于标准GLM,其中指数模型的CPUE标准化结果最佳。同时,标准GLM与空间自相关的GLM相比,存在精确度过高估计的问题。因此,在CPUE标准化中,应充分考虑空间自相关这一因素。     

基于多源遥感数据的日本海内波特征研究

日本海特殊的地理位置和复杂的地形使得该海域内波表征极为复杂,遥感是大范围观测内波的有效手段,已被广泛应用于内波的探测研究。本文利用MODIS、GF-1和ENVISAT ASAR遥感影像,开展了日本海内波特征研究。通过提取内波波峰线,生成了日本海内波空间分布图;获取了内波的波峰线长度和传播速度,并基于非线性薛定谔方程反演了内波振幅。研究结果表明,日本海内波分布范围宽广,不仅大陆架沿海区内波分布密集,深海盆地也探测到了大量内波;日本海北部45°N附近海域有少量内波出现,利用高分影像探测到朝鲜陆架浅海区有大量小尺度内波,大和海盆、大和隆起的西南部海域没有发现内波。日本海内波波峰线长达100多千米,深海区的传播速度大于1 m/s;浅海区内波振幅约10 m左右,深海区可达60 m以上。     

台湾海峡冬、夏季氮通量的数值模拟研究

本文建立了一个气候态驱动的台湾海峡物理-生态耦合模型（ROMS-NPZD）。与遥感观测数据的比较表明,模型能够较好地模拟出冬、夏季台湾海峡主要的温度和叶绿素分布特征。模型揭示了夏季台湾海峡营养盐输运的东、西通道,与南海次表层水的入侵通道一致;冬季,海峡中的营养盐来源于闽浙沿岸水和通过澎湖水道入侵的南海次表层水。模拟结果表明:夏季,通过海峡流入东海的氮主要为有机氮;冬季,闽浙沿岸流为海峡和南海北部陆架提供了丰富的营养盐,不仅如此,南海次表层水进入海峡的营养盐通量与夏季相当。     

Principal stress rotation and cyclic shear strength for an elliptical rotation stress path

Based on the analytical solutions for wave-induced soil response in an unsaturated anisotropic seabed of finite thickness, an elliptical, i.e., noncircular rotation stress path is proven to be a more common state in a soil element with the cyclic shear stresses due to the traveling linear wave. The influence of an elliptical stress path on the characterization of failure strength is analyzed using three new parameters representing the shape, size, and the orientation of the ellipse. A series of cyclic rotational shear tests on the reconstituted specimens of Chinese Fujian Standard Sand have been performed to investigate the effect of elliptical stress path. A strength function in term of failure cycles is derived to quantify the failure strength of a given sand within a seabed subjected to regular wave loading. The results provide a basis for the evaluation of liquefaction potential of seabed but also point to a unique backbone cycle shear strength curve for soil under principal stress rotation.     

崂山隆起寒武系油气勘探前景预测——对比四川盆地和苏北盆地

南黄海盆地是下扬子克拉通板块的主体,也是我国唯一尚未获得油气突破的海区。尤其是崂山隆起,目前只有1口钻井,勘探程度极低,制约了油气勘探的进程。然而,南黄海盆地的烃源岩、储层、盖层和成藏条件与四川盆地和苏北盆地存在着相似的地方。对比分析四川盆地和苏北盆地寒武系可以发现：2个盆地的烃源岩丰度高,厚度大,TOC平均含量分别达4%和3.32%,都是较好的烃源岩;储层以震旦系和寒武系白云岩为主,裂隙发育使储层具有较高的孔隙度和渗透率;成藏模式包括新生古储、古生新储和自生自储。在缺少资料的情况下,通过类比四川盆地和苏北盆地来推测南黄海崂山隆起寒武系的油气地质特征和油气勘探前景。对比分析认为,崂山隆起寒武系具有较大的油气勘探前景,应加快勘探进程。     

The influence of increased iron concentration on survival and growth of seedlings and young plants of eelgrass Zostera marina

Iron (Fe) is an essential nutrient for plants but toxic at high concentrations. We subjected seedlings and young plants of eelgrass Zostera marina to different seawater iron concentrations (500, 600, 700, 800, 1,000 and 1,500 μg/L) for 30 days under controlled laboratory conditions. Natural seawater without added iron (500 μg/L) was used as reference seawater. No sediments were provided to avoid iron scavenging by particle surfaces in the sediment. We measured plant response in terms of survivorship, morphology, growth rate and productivity. Survival analysis combined with morphological, dynamic and productive assessment suggested that the optimum seawater iron concentration for the establishment of Z. marina seedlings and young plants is 700 μg/L. The no observed effect concentration, lowest observed effect concentration, lethal concentration that caused an increase in mortality to 10% of that of the control, and the effect concentration that caused a decrease in growth to 10% of that of the control values of young plants were significantly lower than those of seedlings, implying an increased sensitivity to high Fe concentrations (>1,000 μg/L). This study further develops our understanding of the physiological ecology of the early life stages of Z. marina and provides data that could prove helpful in the development of successful eelgrass restoration and conservation.     

Heterogeneous Gravity Data Fusion and Gravimetric Quasigeoid Computation in the Coastal Area of China

ABSTRACT

Different types of gravity observations are available over coastal areas. The main challenge for coastal geoid determination is the proper fusion of heterogeneous gravity data including land, shipborne, airborne, and altimetry-derived gravity data. This paper describes the gravity data fusion and the computation of the gravimetric quasigeoid in the coastal area of mainland China. An iterative procedure of the weighted least-squares prediction based on rectangular harmonic functions is used for merging the land, altimetric, shipborne, and airborne gravity data. Applying the analytical continuation method in Molodensky's theoretic frame, the merged gravity data are then used to determine the gravimetric quasigeoid model by using the generalized Stokes' integral in a remove-compute-restore fashion. The gravimetric quasigeoid model is compared with the height anomalies determined at 662 GPS leveling points over the coastal region of mainland China, where both the geodetic height and the normal height are known. The standard deviations of the differences in the coastal provinces range from 1.8 to 4.4 cm. For the entire computation area, the mean and standard deviation of the differences are 27.9 and 3.9 cm, respectively.     

Laboratory study on cement admixed marine silt bricks

For the purpose of efficient utilization of sediments dredged from harbor, a new method was proposed in this study. Marine silt bricks were made by mixing sediments with cement and gypsum, placing it in a cubic mold with 240 mm in length, 115 mm in width, and 53 mm in height, and curing for certain days. To investigate the effects of cement and initial water content of soil on the mechanical behavior of marine silt bricks, unconfined compressive and flexural strength tests were carried out. Given the same curing time and cement content, the higher the initial water content, the lower the compressive and flexural strength. After 60 days of curing, the compressive strength of marine silt bricks with cement content = 20% and water content = LL (liquid limit) reached approximately 5 MPa. The flexural strength was relatively low. The flexural strength of marine silt bricks with 20% cement and water content = LL was around 1.5 MPa. The compressive and flexural strength decreased with the increase of water/cement ratio. As for the curing time, longer curing time had a positive impact on the compressive strength. The ratio of flexural to compressive strength varied slightly in the range of 0.4–0.5.     

The prediction of traveling jet trenching in stiff clay based on the erosion failure mechanism

The performance of traveling jet trenching in stiff clay was tested. All the key parameters varied in the experiment, including the jet velocity, the shear strength of clay, the diameter of the nozzle, and the translational velocity of the nozzle. The jet–soil interface was found to be an arc. An equation was given to describe the interface. On the basis of the erosion failure mechanism, a new method is presented for predicting jet trenching depth. We first calculated the trajectory of the jet–soil interface and then predicted the distribution of the boundary layer shear stress along the jet–soil interface. The point where the wall shear stress was equal to the critical shear strength of clay was the ultimate trenching depth. The predictive results were found to fit the experimental results well.