A value chain approach to crisis response system: the case of Qingdao

In this paper, we introduce a value chain approach, on the view of the value chain analytic in business management, to be the framework of a crisis response system serving for crisis management strategy in identifying risk sources, responding to unexpected events, and recovering from a shock. This system is not only a computer system but also a system of governmental emergency response mechanism and it is tremendous and complex. The system integrates and coordinates the correlative resources of emergency response units of the city. We consider the efficiency of the system. In addition, the run cost of the system also is taken into account. Based on this framework, the Qingdao’s practical situation is analyzed. As a result, a design proposal of the Qingdao’s crisis response system is put forward.     

非均布列车荷载作用下软土路基的振动分析

基于实测资料,假设列车轮载经钢轨传递下来的荷载由5根枕木承担。根据分担比,获得了道渣层表面非均布荷载的表达式。将道渣层视为单相弹性介质,软土地基被看成是考虑水土耦合作用的饱和多孔介质。借助势函数,利用Helmholtz矢量分解法及Fourier变换技术分别对弹性土体和饱和半空间土体进行求解,得到非均布移动荷载作用下软土地基位移、应力及孔压响应在变换域内的精确解答。利用FFT算法得到了数值结果,详细分析了荷载分布形式、观察点位置、道渣性质以及软土地基渗透系数对动力响应的影响。研究结果表明：高速情况下动力响应与低速情况有很大不同;对于软土路基,应特别注意列车高速运行时路基浅层范围内产生的孔压响应。     

热带西太平洋海域上层海洋热含量的CSEOF分析

基于月平均Argo温、盐度剖面、纬向风和Ni o3.4指数等资料,利用循环平稳经验正交函数(CSEOF)分解法、最大熵谱分析和相关分析等方法,研究了热带西太平洋海域上层(0—700m)海洋热含量的时空变化特征,并探讨了其年际变化的可能原因。结果表明,热带西太平洋海域上层海洋热含量距平场具有显著的东-西向反位相振荡,且这种振荡除了具有较明显的季节变化外,还存在着较强的准2a振荡。此外,热含量距平场还存在着负-正-负的三极式经向模态,该模态除了具有明显的季节变化外,还存在着显著的准4a振荡。进一步分析表明,热含量的准2a振荡与ENSO事件的发生有着非常密切的联系,并对赤道西太平洋纬向风异常有1—2月的滞后响应。     

我国东部第四纪的海陆过渡相地层

第四纪期间我国海区的海面升降,以及东部沿海第四纪海侵的研究,近年来已经引起地质工作者的广泛注意。有孔虫、介形虫、孢粉等微体化石的运用,在海侵研究中起着十分重要的作用。然而,在寻找海侵地层的过程中也出现了一种值得注意的倾向,那就是把凡是找到一点海相化石(如有孔虫)的地层,统统叫做海相层,一概划在海岸线之外。     

古气候模拟

古气候模式与现代气候模式控制因子不完全相同,有的因子在现代气候模拟中可以不考虑,但是在古气候模拟中则是必不可少的,例如轨道参数、大气中温室气体的浓度、大陆冰盖、大洋热盐环流等。而且,随着模拟的时间尺度不同,这些因子的作用也不同。评价古气候模拟,可以从3处着眼:气候变化的方向、幅度和速度。但是,长期以来古气候模拟仅仅涉及到前两个问题,也就是研究气候对外强迫的平衡响应。集其大成者是古气候模式比较计划(Paleaoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project,     

Levels, seasonal variations, and health risks assessment of ambient air pollutants in the residential areas

People living in the urban area and the surrounding suburban area have disparities in exposure and health risks due to different levels of ambient air pollutants. The main objective of this study is to investigate the concentrations, seasonal variations, and related health risks of ambient air pollutants (PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂) in urban and suburban areas of Ningbo, China. The results showed that the average PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂ concentrations in the urban area were 85.2, 49.3, and 37.4 μg/m³, which were 1.13, 1.25, and 1.41 times the values of the suburban area during the period of March 2009 to February 2010. For the potential health risk analysis, the residents have been divided into four age categories namely, infants, children (1 year), children (8–10 years), and adults. The analysis took into account age-specific breathing rates, body weights for different age categories. The results showed that the potential health risks to respiratory disease for all age categories living in urban area were higher than those in suburban area.     

基于均衡伪多道匹配滤波的海底电缆多次波压制方法研究（英文）

由于自由表面、海底等强反射界面的影响,海底电缆采集资料中鸣震等干扰往往非常严重且与有效波耦合在一起,降低了资料品质。海底电缆双检合成技术利用速度检波器和压电检波器对于下行波场的不同极性响应可以有效压制检波点端多次波,突出有效反射,提高地震资料的分辨率。本文在深入研究双检合成理论及匹配滤波技术的基础上,提出了基于均衡伪多道自适应匹配滤波方法的双检匹配合成方法压制检波点端多次波,不依赖于传统的求取反射系数的匹配合成方法,完全数据驱动,并在合成记录和实际资料的处理过程中均取得了良好的效果,证明了方法的有效性。     

Vulnerability of timber in ground contact to fungal decay under climate change

Attack of decay fungi on wood-based material depends primarily on the natural durability of wood, the local climatic conditions, and the likely climatic change. This study investigates the vulnerability of wood and structural timber in ground contact to decay fungi under high and medium emissions scenarios specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a future scenario in which the global emissions have been limited to 550?ppm through a range of successful intervention schemes. Nine general circulation models are applied to project the local climates of Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne in Australia. It was found that, under the three emissions scenarios, the median decay rate of wood by 2080, relative to that in 2010, could increase up to 10?% in Brisbane and Sydney, but could decrease by 12?% in Melbourne. For timber of less durable wood species 50?years after installation, the residual strength under climate change could be almost 25?% less than that without climate change. The coefficients of variation (COVs) of decay rate of wood are in the vicinity of 1.0 regardless of wood species. For residual strength of timber pole after 50?years of installation, the COVs range from 0.2 to 1.1, depending on the natural durability of timber and the site location. The high COVs due to the variability of natural durability of wood and of climate change, in combination with the likely changes in median residual strength of structural elements, will cause significant structural reliability issues of wood construction and need to be addressed in engineering design codes.