Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统

依据台站“十五”数字化地磁工作需求,结合地磁学科组运行管理的相关技术要求,研发辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统.该软件采用IDL作为开发语言,Oracle 10g数据库管理数据,主要包含用户管理模块、日志管理模块和数据管理模块3部分,具备数据实时处理、快速成像、操作简便、安全稳定等特点,可以有效解决目前台站地磁数据...     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

内蒙古地区场地响应区域特征分析

本文以内蒙古地区台站分布、地质构造和地震活动性为基础,将内蒙古的大部地区划分为三个研究区域分别进行了场地响应研究。对近几年积累的大量ML≥3.0级以上地震,共计39个台站记录到的124次地震事件的785条波形,根据S波的观测振幅谱,采用遗传算法分别反演了三个区域的介质非弹性衰减系数和台站场地响应,并对其进行了讨论。本文得到的介质衰减模型和台站场地响应,将对台网测定ML震级需要考虑的量规函数、台站校正值等提供重要参考。研究结果表明:除个别台站存在场地放大或缩小的响应外,绝大多数台站的场地响应表现出一定的区域性特征;西部区域(除极个别台站外)对高频存在明显衰减;中东部区域对整个频段的反映都比较稳定;东部区域对整个频段存在明显放大,这与该区域覆盖层厚度大相吻合。     

GIS工作流系统的长事务处理研究

分析了Sagas事务模型及空间数据版本树技术,设计了一种灵活的长事务补偿控制方案,为集成GIS,MIS及OA的工作流系统提供了有力的事务处理技术支持。     

Genetic mechanism and failure process of the Mogangling seismic landslide

This paper presents a case study on the Mogangling landslide and its characteristics and geological mechanism. The Mogangling landslide is a giant rock landslide located at the intersection of Dadu river and Moxi river. It is a landslide triggered by an earthquake with large magnitude that occurred in 18th century. Based on detailed site investigation, it shows the Mogangling landslide developed in the Kangding complex strata, composed of completely decomposed aggregates of massive-block stone, debris and soil with some gravels, pebbles and sand layer found distributed in front of the landslide. The control factor of the deformation of this landslide is the combined effect of Detuo fault which is located under the slope, and the regional stress formed along structural planes as well as the free surfaces formed by river cutting. Therefore, when the Kangding-Moxi earthquake (Ms =7.7) occurred on 1st June, 1786, due to seismic shaking, topographic amplification effects and back slope effects, the Mogangling landslide occurred. The Dadu River is the most important river for hydropower development in China; large-scale seismic landslides along the Dadu River are the most important geological issue during the construction of hydropower stations. Therefore, this research is important from the point of view of economic and social benefits.     

柯坪6.5级地震的部分前兆异常及预报

1991年2月25日柯坪6.5级地震前,震中附近地区的土层地应力、金属摆倾斜仪等多项前兆观测出现异常变化,说明强震发生前近场灵敏度较低的简陋仪器也能观测到明显的前兆反应。分析、认识这些异常对地震短临预报的决策是有益的。     

Inverse Analysis of Deep Excavation Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

This paper presents the applications of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm in back analysis of soil parameters for deep excavation problems. A computer code, named Python‐based DE, is developed and incorporated into the commercial finite element software ABAQUS, with a parallel computing technique to run an FE analysis for all trail vectors of one generation in DE in multiple cores of a cluster, which dramatically reduces the computational time. A synthetic case and a well‐instrumented real case, that is, the Taipei National Enterprise Center (TNEC) project, are used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed back‐analysis procedure. Results show that multiple soil parameters are well identified by back analysis using a DE optimization algorithm for highly nonlinear problems. For the synthetic excavation case, the back‐analyzed parameters are basically identical to the input parameters that are used to generate synthetic response of wall deflection. For the TNEC case with a total of nine parameters to be back analyzed, the relative errors of wall deflection for the last three stages are 2.2, 1.1, and 1.0%, respectively. Robustness of the back‐estimated parameters is further illustrated by a forward prediction. The wall deflection in the subsequent stages can be satisfactorily predicted using the back‐analyzed soil parameters at early stages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新型载体与档案保护

随着新材料、新技术逐渐地应用于档案载体,以及计算机技术被应用于档案管理,这些新型载体与档案的保护问题也日益显露出它的重要性和紧迫性,文章阐述对档案库房科学管理以及如何所采取相应的措施进行保护。