Copula‐based joint probability function for PGA and CAV: a case study from Taiwan

This study aims to develop a joint probability function of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) for the strong ground motion data from Taiwan. First, a total of 40,385 earthquake time histories are collected from the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program. Then, the copula approach is introduced and applied to model the joint probability distribution of PGA and CAV. Finally, the correlation results using the PGA‐CAV empirical data and the normalized residuals are compared. The results indicate that there exists a strong positive correlation between PGA and CAV. For both the PGA and CAV empirical data and the normalized residuals, the multivariate lognormal distribution composed of two lognormal marginal distributions and the Gaussian copula provides adequate characterization of the PGA‐CAV joint distribution observed in Taiwan. This finding demonstrates the validity of the conventional two‐step approach for developing empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) of multiple ground motion parameters from the copula viewpoint. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

重症新型冠状病毒肺炎患者的临床特征及预后风险因素分析

目的：探讨重型危重型新型冠状病毒感染者在门诊首诊时的临床特征和肺部CT表现。方法：回顾性分析发热门诊就诊的140例新型冠状病毒感染患者,其中中型组101例,重型危重型组39例。比较两组患者的一般人口学特征、临床表现、胸部薄层平扫CT（HRCT）检查及血常规+C反应蛋白（CRP）的差异性。结果：中型组和重型危重型组相比,①基线特征显示重型危重型组的年龄更高（66.05±14.38 vs. 77.90±13.12）,首诊时病程更短（5.40±3.81 vs. 3.97±3.12）,血氧饱和度（SPO₂）更低（97.88±1.73 vs. 92.92±4.01）,体温峰值（Tmax）更高（38.32±0.66 vs. 38.68±0.63）;②肺部 CT显示重型危重型组的肺炎容积半定量更大（18.85±13.51 vs. 34.41±19.34）;③血常规+CRP实验室检查显示重型危重型组的CRP更高（29.42±26.93 vs. 80.67±48.01）,淋巴细胞计数（LYM）更低（1.64±0.68 vs. 0.95±0.64）,粒细胞淋巴细胞比值更高（NLR）（3.48±2.46 vs. 9.36±10.42）。logistic回归分析显示年龄（OR=1.090,95％CI 1.006～1.181）、肺炎容积半定量（OR=1.086,95％CI 1.086～1.019）和SPO₂（OR=0.261,95％CI 0.089～0.762）与新冠病毒感染重症危重症的发生相关,差异具有统计学意义;CRP（OR=1.054,95％CI 1.023～1.087）和LYM（OR=0.039,95％CI 0.04～0.391）与新冠病毒感染重症危重症的发生相关,差异具有显著统计学意义。结论：高龄、首诊时病程更短、SPO₂更低、肺炎容积半定量更大、CRP升高、LYM下降与后期发展至新冠感染重型危重型相关,需要早期识别。     

黄土滑坡的基本类型与活动特征

高位黄土滑坡具有高势能、突发性、隐蔽性、滑动速度迅速、威胁范围广、破坏冲击能力强等特点,破坏形式多为摧毁和压埋为主,是黄土地区防灾减灾、工程治理棘手难题。不同的地形地貌类型、地层岩性、水文地质条件、地质构造等对滑坡形成都具有本质上的差异。结合平凉市静宁县仁大镇和天水市麦积区大沟高位黄土滑坡典型实例,通过工程地质测绘、工程地质勘查、无人机高精度航测等技术手段,从空间分布、滑坡特征、成因、运动机理、成灾特点等方面进行了系统研究。结果表明,根据地形地貌归属可分为坡面型和沟谷型高位黄土滑坡,其中平凉市静宁县仁大镇滑坡属于坡面型,以 “土浪” 的形式运动,在运动时间上与滑坡启动具有同周期性和连续性,运动速度迅速,运动顺序为滑体脱离母体→土体滑动→土体堆积;天水市麦积区大沟属于沟谷型,以泥流的形式进行运动,滑坡滑动与堆积体启动在时间上具有一定的滞后性,速度相对前者较缓慢,运动顺序为滑体脱离母体→土体堆积→土体滑动→淤积,其运动、堆积特点和黏性泥石流基本相似。     

四川2015速度模型在九寨沟M_S7.0地震震源深度测定中的应用

利用四川2015模型,选择Msdp嵌入的几种常用定位方法对九寨沟M_S7.0地震进行重新定位,比较震源深度结果,并用PTD方法验证合适的震源深度,从而得到较为可靠的震源深度。本文最终判定九寨沟M_S7.0地震震源深度为12±2km。     

Ordovician integrative stratigraphy and timescale of China

In this chapter, starting with a brief review of the research history and current status in the studies of the Ordovician chronostratigraphy in China, the subdivision of the Ordovician System, definition and recognition of its series and stage boundaries, and possible stratigraphic gaps are discussed in details in order to establish a multidisciplinary stratigraphic correlation through an integrated approach including lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, radiometric dating, chemostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy. Being internationally accepted, the Ordovician System is now subdivided into three series and seven stages, in ascending order, Lower(Tremadocian, Floian), Middle(Dapingian, Darriwilian) and Upper series(Sandbian, Katian,Hirnantian). Three of the seven "Golden Spikes" defining the bases of the Ordovician stages, which were established in 1997–2007, are located in China. As a regionally applied chronostratigraphy, the Ordovician System was subdivided in China into Lower(Xinchangian, Yiyangian), Middle(Dapingian, Darriwilian) and Upper series(Neichiashanian, Chientangkiangian,Hirnantian). This scheme agrees largely with the standard international classification, which can actually be directly applied to China, except for some special circumstances where the Neichiashanian and Chientangkiangian stages of the Upper Ordovician are used. Based on the new studies in recent years and distinctions and differences recognized in the development of the Ordovician System in the constituent terranes of China, a new framework for correlation among the major Chinese palaeoplates or terranes, e.g. South China, North China(including Tarim and Qaidam) and Xizang(Tibet)-western Yunnan, has been established. However, it has been recognized herein that uncertainties still remain on defining the base of the Tremadocian,Dapingian and Katian, and on the correlation between different mega-facies. More specifically, for the Tremadocian, the precise correlation of its base will depend on the better-defined conodont taxonomy, while for the Dapingian and Katian, on the correlation between different mega-facies. It is worthwhile to note that the chemostratigraphic studies of the Ordovician System in China produced the carbonate δ13 C curves for the Darriwilian(Middle Ordovician) and Katian(Upper Ordovician), which show significant differences from the composite global curve. Record of the Ordovician isotopic dating is relatively rare in China, with only three reliable ages from zircons that are all from the upper Katian to Hirnantian of the Upper Ordovician.Abundant bentonite beds in the Upper Ordovician of South China will also provide unique opportunities to advance the isotopic dating and related researches. Studies on the Ordovician magnetostratigraphy need to be significantly enhanced in China, as currently all the available results are restricted to the Lower Ordovician of North China, although they can be correlated with those known from other parts of the world. The analysis of the durational unevenness of the seven stages in the Ordovician supports the possibility to further subdivide the long-durational Tremadocian, Darriwilian and Katian stages, each into two substages.     

5•12汶川地震中山区公路桥梁震害及启示

桥梁结构的振动特性受场地条件及土—结相互作用影响显著,为提高桥梁结构的抗震性能,减少因结构破坏而产生的经济损失,进一步开展考虑场地土体非线性以及土—结相互作用对桥梁结构地震反应影响的研究工作十分必要。本文以一典型桥梁结构为例,着重介绍了美国太平洋地震工程研究中心基于性能的桥梁有限元模拟平台BridgePBEE应用中所涉及的地震动选取、桥梁结构建模、土体本构选择以及基于构件的桩—土—桥梁结构体系损伤评估方法,为研究震后桥梁结构经济损失分析方法提供可行性方案。     

肝脏外伤的CT评价

ＣＴ扫描为闭合性腹部外伤而血液动力学稳定患者的首选检查方法，对发现外伤及其程度高度敏感，专门和准确，使得许多外伤患者，特别是肝外伤得以做手术治疗，ＣＴ成像能有效地显示肝外伤保守治疗过程。     

杭州西湖总磷动态变化预测

建立了西湖污染物分析和浓度变化的水质对流扩散模型,并利用该模型对西湖水体引水后７ｄ内总磷浓度的变化进行了预测,然后对预测结果作了较为详细的分析。