Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统

依据台站“十五”数字化地磁工作需求,结合地磁学科组运行管理的相关技术要求,研发辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统.该软件采用IDL作为开发语言,Oracle 10g数据库管理数据,主要包含用户管理模块、日志管理模块和数据管理模块3部分,具备数据实时处理、快速成像、操作简便、安全稳定等特点,可以有效解决目前台站地磁数据...     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

内蒙古地区场地响应区域特征分析

本文以内蒙古地区台站分布、地质构造和地震活动性为基础,将内蒙古的大部地区划分为三个研究区域分别进行了场地响应研究。对近几年积累的大量ML≥3.0级以上地震,共计39个台站记录到的124次地震事件的785条波形,根据S波的观测振幅谱,采用遗传算法分别反演了三个区域的介质非弹性衰减系数和台站场地响应,并对其进行了讨论。本文得到的介质衰减模型和台站场地响应,将对台网测定ML震级需要考虑的量规函数、台站校正值等提供重要参考。研究结果表明:除个别台站存在场地放大或缩小的响应外,绝大多数台站的场地响应表现出一定的区域性特征;西部区域(除极个别台站外)对高频存在明显衰减;中东部区域对整个频段的反映都比较稳定;东部区域对整个频段存在明显放大,这与该区域覆盖层厚度大相吻合。     

A 16 ka climate record deduced from δ^13C and C/N ratio in Qinghai Lake sediments, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

1 INTRODUCTION δ13C in organic matters from lacustrine sedi- ments varies with several factors including aquatic plants, vegetation type in the catchment, atmos- pheric CO2 concentration, climate (temperature and precipitation), and properties of water, …     

GIS工作流系统的长事务处理研究

分析了Sagas事务模型及空间数据版本树技术,设计了一种灵活的长事务补偿控制方案,为集成GIS,MIS及OA的工作流系统提供了有力的事务处理技术支持。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MESOSCALE STRUCTURES OF TYPHOON AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS USING MM5*

The track,landfall,dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical mesoscale structures and their evolution of typhoon HERB 1996 in 36 h from 0000 UTC 31 July to 1200 UTC 1 August 1996 were simulated by using the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5.This period covered the process of typhoon HERB landfall at Taiwan and Fujian Provinces.Results show that the model successfully simulated the landfall process of typhoon HERB,revealed the most important characteristics of the mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical structure during its landfall.The simulated typhoon track was close to the observation.The center of cyclonic circulation simulated at 0000 UTC on 1 August 1996 (24 h integration) was located in shore near Fuqing,Fujian Province at which the typhoon was reported to landfall two hours later.It shows that strong upward motion formed by low level convergence existed in the eye-wall and subsidence at the eye.The wind field shows clear asymmetrical structure near the typhoon center.The cloud and rainband was screw-typed distributed around typhoon center,and consisted of meso-β scale rain cores.During the period of typhoon HERB staying near and passing over Taiwan,the lower cloud was developed in the eye region so that the previous clear typhoon eye on the satellite pictures became fuzzy.Observation shows that the typhoon center was "warm",but the model simulations with higher space resolution show that in the mid-troposphere the region of eye-wall with stronger upward motion and more cloud-and rain-water was warmer than the eye.During the period of typhoon passing over Taiwan and its following landfall at Fujian,the track of model typhoon deviated about 30 km northward (i.e.,rightward) because of the orographic effects of Taiwan Island,but the strength of the typhoon was not affected remarkably.The amount of rainfall on Taiwan in the 36 h simulations was enhanced more than six times by the orographic lifting of Taiwan Mountain.     

Test method for single interior right angle in a corner cube prism

1　ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｃｏｒｎｅｒｃｕｂｅｐｒｉｓｍｏｒｒｅｔｒｏｒｅｆｌｅｃｔｏｒｉｓｅｘｔｅｎ ｓｉｖｅｌｙｕｓｅｄｉｎｐｌａｃｅｏｆｔｈｅｍｏｖａｂｌｅｍｉｒｒｏｒｉｎａｎｉｎ ｔｅｒｆｅｒｏｍｅｔｅｒ,ｏｒａｓａｃｏｏｐｅｒａｔｉｖｅｔａｒｇｅｔｉｎｒａｎｇｅｆｉｎｄｅｒ.Ｉｔｈａｓｔｈｒｅｅｓｕｒｆａｃｅｓ,ｗｈｉｃｈａｒｅｐｅｒｐｅｎｄｉｃ ｕｌａｒｔｏｅａｃｈｏｔｈｅｒａｎｄｃａｌｌｅｄｔｈｅｒｉｇｈｔａｎｇｕｌａｒｓｕｒ ｆａｃｅｓ.Ａｎｉｎｃｌｉｎｅｄｉｓｏｓｃｅｌｅｓｔｒ…     

Genetic mechanism and failure process of the Mogangling seismic landslide

This paper presents a case study on the Mogangling landslide and its characteristics and geological mechanism. The Mogangling landslide is a giant rock landslide located at the intersection of Dadu river and Moxi river. It is a landslide triggered by an earthquake with large magnitude that occurred in 18th century. Based on detailed site investigation, it shows the Mogangling landslide developed in the Kangding complex strata, composed of completely decomposed aggregates of massive-block stone, debris and soil with some gravels, pebbles and sand layer found distributed in front of the landslide. The control factor of the deformation of this landslide is the combined effect of Detuo fault which is located under the slope, and the regional stress formed along structural planes as well as the free surfaces formed by river cutting. Therefore, when the Kangding-Moxi earthquake (Ms =7.7) occurred on 1st June, 1786, due to seismic shaking, topographic amplification effects and back slope effects, the Mogangling landslide occurred. The Dadu River is the most important river for hydropower development in China; large-scale seismic landslides along the Dadu River are the most important geological issue during the construction of hydropower stations. Therefore, this research is important from the point of view of economic and social benefits.