K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

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陕西岚皋地区Oktavites spiralis(螺旋奥式笔石)发育过程的初步研究

Oktavites spiralis是志留纪兰多维列统特列奇阶的笔石带化石之一,具有重要的地层意义。为更精确地描述这一属种,对产自陕西岚皋地区的Cyrtograptus lapworthi笔石带的O.spiralis不同发育阶段的标本进行了详细研究,从而对其始部发育情况有了更深入的认识。同时,对O.spiralis发育过程的研究也可以成为对该属进行精确厘定的手段之一。     

Variation in Coronal Activity from Solar Cycle 24 Minimum to Maximum Using Three-Dimensional Reconstructions of the Coronal Electron Density from STEREO/COR1

Three-dimensional electron density distributions in the solar corona are reconstructed for 100 Carrington rotations (CR 2054?–?2153) during 2007/03?–?2014/08 using the spherically symmetric method from polarized white-light observations with the inner coronagraph (COR1) onboard the twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). These three-dimensional electron density distributions are validated by comparison with similar density models derived using other methods such as tomography and a magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model as well as using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)-C2. Uncertainties in the estimated total mass of the global corona are analyzed based on differences between the density distributions for COR1-A and -B. Long-term variations of coronal activity in terms of the global and hemispheric average electron densities (equivalent to the total coronal mass) reveal a hemispheric asymmetry during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24, with the northern hemisphere leading the southern hemisphere by a phase shift of 7?–?9 months. Using 14 CR (\(\approx13\)-month) running averages, the amplitudes of the variation in average electron density between Cycle 24 maximum and Cycle 23/24 minimum (called the modulation factors) are found to be in the range of 1.6?–?4.3. These modulation factors are latitudinally dependent, being largest in polar regions and smallest in the equatorial region. These modulation factors also show a hemispheric asymmetry: they are somewhat larger in the southern hemisphere. The wavelet analysis shows that the short-term quasi-periodic oscillations during the rising and maximum phases of Cycle 24 have a dominant period of 7?–?8 months. In addition, it is found that the radial distribution of the mean electron density for streamers at Cycle 24 maximum is only slightly larger (by \(\approx30\%\)) than at cycle minimum.     

裂隙岩石介质中核素迁移的模型及其算子分裂、迎风、均衡格式

建立了放射性核素在裂隙岩石介质中迁移的双重介质模型,对模型的求解提出了一种新的数值方法—Galerkin有限元法与算子分裂、迎风、均衡格式相结合的新方法,给出了水质模型算子分裂、迎风、均衡格式的稳定性条件,且所得到的计算格式是非负的。最后通过对核素90Sr 100年、99Tc 1000年的预测计算,验证了本文所提方法的有效性和稳定性,并得出了一些有重要意义的结论。     

Three-dimensional analysis of ozone and PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> distributions obtained by observations of tethered balloon and unmanned aerial vehicle in Shanghai,China

A lightweight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a tethered balloon platform were jointly used to investigate three-dimensional distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations within the lower troposphere (1000 m) at a localized coastal area in Shanghai, China. Eight tethered balloon soundings and three UAV flights were conducted on May 25, 2016. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to quantitatively describe the relationships between air pollutants and other obtained parameters. Field observations showed that large variations were captured both in the vertical and horizontal distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations. Significant stratified layers of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations as well as wind directions were observed throughout the day. Estimated bulk Richardson numbers indicate that the vertical mixing of air masses within the lower troposphere were heavily suppressed throughout the day, leading to much higher concentrations of ozone and PM_2.5 in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The NO and NO₂ concentrations in the experimental field were much lower than that in the urban area of Shanghai and demonstrated totally different vertical distribution patterns from that of ozone and PM_2.5. This indicates that aged air masses of different sources were transported to the experimental field at different heights. Results derived from the GAMs showed that the aggregate impact of the selected variables for the vertical variations can explain 94.3% of the variance in ozone and 94.5% in PM_2.5. Air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure had the strongest effects on the variations of ozone and PM_2.5. As for the horizontal variations, the GAMs can explain 56.3% of the variance in ozone and 57.6% in PM_2.5. The strongest effect on ozone was related to air temperature, while PM_2.5 was related to relative humidity. The output of GAMs also implied that fine aerosol particles were in the stage of growth in the experimental field, which is different from ozone (aged air parcels of ozone). Geographical parameters influenced the horizontal variations of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations by changing underlying surface types. The differences of thermodynamic properties between land and sea resulted in quick changes of PBL height, air temperature and dew point over the coastal area, which was linked to the extent of vertical mixing at different locations. The results of GAMs can be used to analyze the sources and formation mechanisms of ozone and PM_2.5 pollutions at a localized area.     

浅议新形势下的国土资源队伍形象塑造

树立良好的国土资源管理队伍形象,是当前国土资源管理体制改革的迫切需要,是充分发挥国土资源管理各项职能的客观要求。塑造新形势下的国土资源队伍形象是一项长期的、需要全体“国土卫士”持之以恒艰苦努力的工程。可总结为：塑“魂”、创“新”、建“制”、促“廉”、立“本”、树“形”6个方面。     

The first Surijokocixiidae (Insecta: Hemiptera: Fulgoromorpha) from the Triassic of China

A planthopper originally assigned to the genus Boreocixius in Surijokocixiidae (Surijokocixioidea, Fulgoromorpha) from the Ladinian (Middle Triassic) of Tongchuan in Shaanxi, northwestern China is described as Boreocixius tongchuanensis Zhang et al. sp. nov. As the third species ascribed to the genus, it differs from its congeners in having the much larger tegmen with postnodal veinlets and pigmented bands, providing new morphological information for Boreocixius. The establishment of the new species further increases the diversity of Boreocixius and Surijokocixiidae as well.     

Comparison of the LEW88516 and ALHA77005 martian meteorites: Similar but distinct

Abstract By mineral and bulk compositions, the Lewis Cliff (LEW) 88516 meteorite is quite similar to the ALHA77005 martian meteorite. These two meteorites are not paired because their mineral compositions are distinct, they were found 500 km apart in ice fields with different sources for meteorites, and their terrestrial residence ages are different. Minerals in LEW88516 include: olivine, pyroxenes (low- and high-Ca), and maskelynite (after plagioclase); and the minor minerals chromite, whitlockite, ilmenite, and pyrrhotite. Mineral grains in LEW88516 range up to a few mm. Texturally, the meteorite is complex, with regions of olivine and chromite poikilitically enclosed in pyroxene, regions of interstitial basaltic texture, and glass-rich (shock) veinlets. Olivine compositions range from Fo₆₄ to Fo₇₀, (avg. Fo₆₇), more ferroan and with more variation than in ALHA77005 (Fo₆₉ to Fo₇₃). Pyroxene compositions fall between En₇₇Wo₄ and En₆₅Wo₁₅ and in clusters near En₆₃Wo₉ and En₅₃Wo₃₃, on average more magnesian and with more variation than in ALHA77005. Shock features in LEW88516 range from weak deformation through complete melting. Bulk chemical analyses by modal recombination of electron microprobe analyses, instrumental neutron activation, and radiochemical neutron activation confirm that LEW88516 is more closely related to ALHA77005 than to other known martian meteorites. Key element abundance ratios are typical of martian meteorites, as is its non-chondritic rare earth pattern. Differences between the chemical compositions of LEW88516 and ALHA77005 are consistent with slight differences in the proportions of their constituent minerals and not from fundamental petrogenetic differences. Noble gas abundances in LEW88516, like those in ALHA77005, show modest excesses of ⁴⁰Ar and ¹²⁹Xe from trapped (shock-implanted) gas. As with other ALHA77005 and the shergottite martian meteorites (except EETA79001), noble gas isotope abundances in LEW88516 are consistent with exposure to cosmic rays for 2.5–3 Ma. The absence of substantial effects of shielding from cosmic rays suggest LEW88516 spent this time as an object no larger than a few cm in diameter.