The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections

The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data.     

A snapshot of environmental iodine and selenium in La Pampa and San Juan provinces of Argentina

Soil and water samples were collected from farmsteads and provincial towns across the provinces of La Pampa and San Juan in Argentina. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry was used for the determination of iodine in water following addition of TMAH to 1% v/v and soils extracted with 5% TMAH. Iodine in agricultural soils was in the range of 1.3–20.9 mg/kg in La Pampa located in central Argentina and 0.1–10.5 mg/kg in San Juan located in the northwest Andean region of Argentina, compared to a worldwide mean of 2.6 mg/kg. Mean selenium concentrations for soils from both provinces were 0.3 mg/kg, compared to a worldwide mean of 0.4 mg/kg. The majority of soils were slightly alkaline at pH 6.7 to 8.8. The organic content of soils in La Pampa was 2.5–5.9% and in San Juan 0.1–2.3%, whilst, mobile water extractable soil-iodine was 1–18% for La Pampa and 2–42% for San Juan. No simple relationship observed for pH and organic content, but mobile iodine (%) was highest when organic content was low, higher for lower total iodine concentrations and generally highest at pH > 7.5. Water drawn for drinking or irrigation of a variety of crops and pasture was found to range from 52 to 395 µg/L iodine and 0.8 to 21.3 µg/L selenium in La Pampa and 16–95 µg/L iodine and 0.6 to 8.2 µg/L selenium in San Juan. The water samples were all slightly alkaline between pH 8 and 10. Water–iodine concentrations were highest at pH 7.8 to 8.8 and in groundwaters positively correlated with conductivity. Raw water entering water treatment works in La Pampa was reduced in iodine content from approximately 50 µg/L in raw water to 1 µg/L in treated drinking water, similar to levels observed in regions experiencing iodine deficiency.     

Ignition latitude and the shape of Type I X-ray bursts

The shape of the light curve during the rising phase of Type I X-ray bursts is determined by many factors including the ignition latitude, the accretion rate, and the rotation rate of the star. We develop a phenomenological model of the burst rise process and show that simple measures of the burst morphology can be robust diagnostics of ignition latitude and burning regime. We apply our results to the large sample of bursts from the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636−536, and find evidence for off-equatorial ignition for many of the bursts. We argue that such behaviour may be associated with the transition from hydrogen to helium ignition at accretion rates a few per cent of Eddington. We show that this model can also explain variations in the detectability of burst oscillations, and discuss the implications for other burst sources.     

Evidence of biogeomorphic patterning in a low‐relief karst landscape

Patterned landscapes are often evidence of biotic control on geomorphic processes, emerging in response to coupled ecosystem processes acting at different spatial scales. Self‐reinforcing processes at local scales expand patches, while self‐inhibiting processes, operating at a distance, impose limits to expansion. In Big Cypress National Preserve (BICY) in southwest Florida, isolated forested wetland depressions (cypress domes) appear to be evenly distributed within a mosaic of short‐hydroperiod marshes and pine uplands. To test the hypothesis that the apparent patterning is regular, we characterized frequency distributions and spatial patterns of vegetation communities, surface and bedrock elevation, and soil properties (thickness and phosphorus content). Nearest neighbor distances indicate strongly significant wetland spatial overdispersion, and bedrock elevations exhibited periodic spatial autocorrelation; both observations are consistent with regular patterning. Bedrock elevations and soil P were clearly bimodal, suggesting strong positive feedbacks on wetland patch development. Soil‐surface elevations exhibited weaker bimodality, indicating smoothing of surface morphology by some combination of sediment transport, mineral reprecipitation, and organic matter production. Significant negative autocorrelation of bedrock elevations at scales similar to wetland spacing suggest the presence of distal negative feedbacks on patch expansion. These findings support the inference of regular patterning, and are consistent with the presence of local positive feedbacks among hydroperiod, vegetation productivity and bedrock dissolution. These processes are ultimately constrained by distal negative feedbacks, potentially induced by landscape scale limitations on the water volume required to enable this biogeomorphic mechanism. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy dependence of Ti/Fe ratio in the Galactic cosmic rays measured by the ATIC-2 experiment

Titanium is a rare, secondary nucleus among Galactic cosmic rays. Using the Silicon matrix in the ATIC experiment, Titanium has been separated. The energy dependence of the Ti to Fe flux ratio in the energy region from 5 GeV per nucleon to about 500 GeV per nucleon is presented. The article was translated by the authors.     

Intercomparison of height assignment methods for opaque clouds over the tropics

Several methods of determining the height of opaque clouds over the tropics were compared using geostationary satellite measurements. The possible use of ozone channel measurements around the 9.7-μm ozone absorption band was examined in conjunction with the infrared window (IRW; 10.8 μm), H₂O (6.3 μm), and CO₂ (13.4 μm) channels, which are generally used for the assignment of cloud heights. Cloud top heights were retrieved from Meteosat-8 measurements with the aid of radiative transfer calculations using reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) as inputs. By using cloud top heights from collocated CloudSat observations as a reference, cloud top heights were determined from the one-channel radiance, two-channel brightness temperature difference (BTD), and two-channel radiance ratio methods, and the respective results were then compared for clouds with geometrical thicknesses of > 4 km. Overall, the retrievals from the CO₂-IRW ratio and O₃-CO₂ ratio methods are in substantial agreement with CloudSat observations, while the other methods either underestimate cloud top heights or demonstrate a lower ratio of successful height assignment. The O₃-CO₂ ratio method appears to be less practical than the CO₂-IRW ratio method because it requires two absorption channels. Our comparison also shows that the BTD between the ozone and IRW channels yields information that is similar to that of the IRW channel alone. It further shows that the O₃-IRW combination is not appropriate for the two-channel radiance ratio method. These results suggest that the inclusion of the ozone channel in BTD and ratio methods may not offer any significant improvement in convective cloud height retrieval over the tropics. In conclusion, the CO₂-IRW ratio method appears to provide the most accurate retrievals for opaque clouds.