京津冀协同治理的回顾与前瞻

京津冀区域治理是伴随三地协作发展的进程,从政府层面的管制转向各利益主体协调治理,从自上而下的竞争合作转向上下结合的协同合作的一系列有效应对举措。经过30多年的努力,学界和政府部门已经形成了较为丰富的京津冀区域治理研究成果。通过梳理自1984年以来相关区域的研究,尝试从时空维度厘清京津冀区域治理的研究脉络及其变化,剖析目前京津冀区域治理所涉及的治理模式、协调体系、以及形成的发展策略,为改进和提高京津冀区域治理效果提供参考。京津冀协同治理过程是学术界与政府的互动融合过程,其中政府的作用居主导地位。未来将在治理主体、治理机制、治理效果评价和文化、医疗、养老等领域的协调发展方面得到深化和细化。     

基于POI数据的长沙市生活性服务业空间格局研究

生活性服务业是服务经济的重要组成部分,其合理布局对发展城市经济、满足居民消费需求具有重要作用。基于长沙市六区POI数据,运用核密度分析、熵指数、频数密度分析及空间聚类等方法研究长沙市生活性服务业的空间格局特征,发现长沙市生活性服务业的分布具有以下特点：1）主要受交通及城市规划指向性影响,沿交通主干道集聚分布,整体布局呈“一核四轴多极”且空间分布与人口集中度联系紧密,东西差异明显,东部多而密集、西部少而分散;2）不同类型的生活性服务业分布特征各异,在空间形态上主要表现为“单核心”、“双核心”和“多核心”等;3）其功能多样性布局呈现以五一广场为核心的“中心-外围”结构特征,功能多样且混合程度高的区域位于城市中心,城市边缘区生活性服务业集聚性较弱且多为单一功能或者双功能混合区。     

2010—2015年中东北非政局变动中的“政治性民意势力”及其影响

援引批判地缘政治学话语权和地缘政治想象分析方法,在对“民意”“政治性民意”“政治性民意势力”内涵界定的基础上,分析了2010—2015年中东北非地区相关国家政局变动中“政治性民意势力”的形成背景、过程及其影响。结果表明：中东北非国家“政治性民意势力”的形成有着深厚的国内背景和复杂的国际背景;“政治性民意势力”的形成经历了从民意事件客体的呈现,到民众聚集并上升为政治性议题,再到国内外势力借力博弈形成挑动抗议、推动政变的政治力量的过程;“政治性民意势力”形成以后,多行为体借力博弈下,在国别、区域上呈现不同的扩散轨迹和规律;“政治性民意势力”一方面造成了中东北非相关国家的政局变换,另一方面则推动区域地缘政治格局的变迁。这是对民意事件的地缘政治理论解读和分析,是一次较为有意义的尝试。     

基于自然区块的城市热环境空间分异性研究

通过有效解决建设用地子类划分,实现定量评价城市热环境的空间分异性,对改善城市生态环境、实现城市化的健康发展具有重要的意义和科学价值。论文以广州市为例,参考自然城市的概念,基于5类兴趣点(Point Of Interest,POI)开放数据,结合城市建设用地分类标准,构建5类自然区块;在Landsat 8遥感影像地表温度反演的基础上,计算分析自然区块下地表热场等级分布格局、热场平均值及热环境足迹范围,以对城市热环境空间分异性进行评价。研究表明：① 自然区块的构建,能准确地反映各类POI数据空间分布情况,能够实现对建设用地子类型的划分;② 5类自然区块内部地表热场等级均以高温像元为主,但等级分布具有显著差异。同时,自然区块的热场平均值由高到低的排序为：工业区块>商业服务业区块>交通与道路区块>居住区块>公共管理与服务区块;③ 自然区块形成的高温集聚区,存在热量扩散现象,实际影响范围大于其物理边界,5类自然区块的热环境足迹范围具有分异性。热环境足迹影响范围由大到小排序为：工业区块>商业服务业区块>居住区块>道路与交通区块>公共管理与服务区块。研究结果可为微观尺度上分析城市热环境、改善城市生态环境、实现城市化的健康发展提供科学依据。     

震区植被恢复初期土壤理化性质与土壤呼吸间的关系

为了解地震灾区不同恢复方式下土壤理化性质和土壤呼吸间的关系,选取2种典型气候区(干旱河谷气候区与亚热带季风气候区)为研究区,设置人工恢复、未受损、自然恢复3种恢复方式的固定样地,定期测定土壤呼吸与土壤理化性质(有机碳、全氮、全磷、速效氮、有效磷、容重、孔隙度、电导率和pH值),并分析各因子间的相关关系。结果表明:气候类型显著影响土壤全氮、容重、孔隙度、电导率以及土壤呼吸,表现为干旱河谷气候区显著优于亚热带季风气候区;恢复方式显著影响土壤呼吸速率、有机碳、全氮、全磷、速效氮、有效磷含量、C:P、N:P、容重、孔隙度和电导率,基本表现为未受损样地优于人工恢复样地优于自然恢复样地;二者交互作用显著影响土壤呼吸、土壤物理性质和除全磷、有效磷外主要土壤养分的流失。两种气候区土壤呼吸的影响因子不同,干旱河谷气候区主要为土壤有机质、全氮、全磷、速效氮、pH值、容重和孔隙度,亚热带季风气候区主要为土壤有机质、全氮、速效氮、容重和孔隙度。本研究为评价和优化西南地区灾后恢复治理措施提供一定科学依据,对其生态安全维护和生态屏障建设提供帮助。     

格尔木河水质现状及生态风险评估

为了解经济迅速发展背景下格尔木河流域水体中痕量元素分布、水环境质量现状和生态风险,对格尔木河9个采样点水样21种痕量元素的分布及相关性进行了分析,以Cu、Zn、Hg、Cd、Cr和Pb为目标重金属,评估了格尔木河水质现状及生态风险。结果表明:重金属Pb浓度在所有水样中均低于检出限,其它痕量元素浓度在0.001(Cd)～6297.013(Sr)μg·L~(-1)范围变化。根据相关性分析,推测格尔木河水体中Li、Sc、Ti、V、Cu、Ge、Rb、Sr、Mo、Cd来源可能相同。采样点水样6种重金属浓度均达到地表水环境质量I类的标准。采用5种方法评价了格尔木河水质现状,研究区水质处于无污染的理想状态。格尔木河重金属引发的潜在生态风险处于低风险水平(生态风险指数变化范围为0.35～0.68)。     

茅山竹矿断层气定点观测场地勘选

拟在茅山断裂带沿线布设若干个断层气连续观测点,建组断层气观测网。以茅山竹矿地区为例,通过断层气测量的初步结果,结合地质、人工地震、跨断层短水准等多种手段联合分析研究区断层的活动性,从而确定断层气定点观测的点位,为组建断层气观测网的选点提供借鉴和参考。     

Static Optimization of a Compliant Vertical Access Riser

The compliant vertical access riser(CVAR) is a new riser concept with good compliance; it can significantly reduce operating costs by eliminating the need for additional machines to operate wells directly on the platform. In this study, we determined the optimal riser parameters in terms of the stress and riser weight by optimizing the CVAR, and we compared the optimization results. A two-dimensional nonlinear static CVAR model was deduced according to the principles of virtual work and variation, and the model was verified using MATLAB. Design of experiments and Kriging method were used to reduce the number of sample calculations and improve the modeling accuracy. An appropriate selection of the multi-objective optimization problem(MOP) and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm helped to optimize the CVAR design. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II was used to solve the Pareto frontier of the optimization model in order to provide decision makers with more choices for the optimization results. After optimizing the riser parameters, the geometry of the riser was smoother, and the stress and stress differences were greatly reduced; the maximum equivalent stresses at the top and bottom were reduced by 36.6% and 44%, respectively. In addition, the stress difference in the buoyancy block area was reduced by 20.9%, and the weight of the riser was increased significantly by 28.1%.     

Reverse-Time Migration of Converted S-Waves of Varying Densities

Ocean-Bottom Node(OBN) acquisitions provide both non-converted and converted reflection energy. There is a clear advantage to independently imaging both P-and S-waves, as they provide more information collectively than either does alone. In many conventional converted-wave pre-stack migration algorithms, density is treated as a constant, which is not the real-life case on earth. S-wave velocity and density information is crucial for hydrocarbon detection because it helps in the identification of porefilling fluids. In this paper, we focused on the effect of density on imaging, and developed a method of reverse-time migration(RTM) on converted s-waves of varying densities(VD-RTMCS). Phase correction was required prior to pre-stack migration to avoid constructive interference between data from adjacent sources. Synthetic data examples showed that when density variations were included, image profiles showed advantages in signal-to-noise ratio, vertical resolution and imaging of complex structures.     

Impacts of SIS and CICE as Sea Ice Components in BCC_CSM on the Simulation of the Arctic Climate

Sea ice is a sensitive indicator of climate change and an important component of climate system models. The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model 5.0(CICE5.0) was introduced to the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) as a new alternative to the Sea Ice Simulator(SIS). The principal purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of these two sea ice components on simulations of basic Arctic sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean states. Two sets of experiments were conducted with the same configurations except for the sea ice component used, i.e., SIS and CICE. The distributions of sea ice concentration and thickness reproduced by the CICE simulations in both March and September were closer to actual observations than those reproduced by SIS simulations, which presented a very thin sea ice cover in September. Changes in sea ice conditions also brought about corresponding modifications to the atmosphere and ocean circulation. CICE simulations showed higher agreement with the reference datasets than did SIS simulations for surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature in most parts of the Arctic Ocean. More importantly, compared with simulations with SIS, BCC_CSM with CICE revealed stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC), which is more consistent with actual observations. Thus, CICE shows better performance than SIS in BCC_ CSM. However, both components demonstrate a number of common weaknesses, such as overestimation of the sea ice cover in winter, especially in the Nordic Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. Additional studies and improvements are necessary to develop these components further.