地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例

城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。     

生态城市的内涵及建设策略

生态城市是通过倡导生态理念，采用生态技术，建立生态化产业体系，从而达到社会、经济、环境的可持续发展，实现自然生态平衡、人文生态和谐的城乡统一体。从可持续发展的角度出发，利用生态学和社会学的观点，论述生态城市的内涵，提出科学的城市规划、合理的城市评价指标体系、完善的城市管理制度是实现生态城市的前提，强调只有自然生态、人文生态两手抓才能真正实现经济、社会、环境全面发展。     

新房地产政策与福州房地产市场发展走向

本文通过对国家有关部门为抑制房价涨幅过快等而出台的一系列宏观调控政策的深入研究,探讨其对福州市房地产市场发展的影响,进而对2005年及今后一段时间福州市房地产市场发展走向作出科学的预测.希望能给政府相关部门制定科学的、符合客观实际的房地产政策提供有益参考,也为业界人士进行相关探讨起抛砖引玉的作用.     

基于YOLO算法的海洋中尺度涡三维结构构建

海洋中尺度涡是一种常见的中尺度海洋现象,研究海洋中尺度涡的分布及运动特性对航运、气候、军事等具有重要作用,海洋中尺度涡的识别是海洋学和计算机科学领域的一个热门研究课题。运用深度学习的方法和框架,对中尺度涡的二维识别和三维结构构建展开研究分析。首先,获取全球海洋再分析数据并进行流线可视化,构建涡旋流线数据集;其次,利用YOLO v5s卷积神经网络对涡旋流线数据集进行训练,并对南海区域中尺度涡进行有效检测。实验结果表明,YOLO v5s训练后得到最优模型经过测试,平均检测精度均值达到了86.10%;最后,根据涡旋检测结果,对检测出的同时刻不同深度的涡旋判断是否属于同一涡旋,确定后进行该涡旋的三维结构构建。     

A Lagrangian study of the near-surface intrusion of Pacific water into the South China Sea

Satellite-tracked Lagrangian drifters are used to investigate the transport pathways of near-surface water around the Luzon Strait. Particular attention is paid to the intrusion of Pacific water into the South China Sea(SCS).Results from drifter observations suggest that except for the Kuroshio water, other Pacific water that carried by zonal jets, Ekman currents or eddies, can also intrude into the SCS. Motivated by this origin problem of the intrusion water, numerous simulated trajectories are constructed by altimeter-based velocities. Quantitative estimates from simulated trajectories suggest that the contribution of other Pacific water to the total intrusion flux in the Luzon Strait is approximately 13% on average, much smaller than that of Kuroshio water. Even so, over multiple years and many individual intrusion events, the contribution from other Pacific water is quite considerable. The interannual signal in the intrusion flux of these Pacific water might be closely related to variations in a wintertime westward current and eddy activities east of the Luzon Strait. We also found that Ekman drift could significantly contribute to the intrusion of Pacific water and could affect the spreading of intrusion water in the SCS. A case study of an eddy-related intrusion is presented to show the detailed processes of the intrusion of Pacific water and the eddy-Kuroshio interaction.     

Identification of Suitable Hydrologic Response Unit Thresholds for Soil and Water Assessment Tool Streamflow Modelling

Use of a non-zero hydrologic response unit(HRU) threshold is an effective way of reducing unmanageable HRU numbers and simplifying computational cost in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) hydrologic modelling. However, being less representative of watershed heterogeneity and increasing the level of model output uncertainty are inevitable when minor HRU combinations are disproportionately eliminated. This study examined 20 scenarios by running the model with various HRU threshold settings to understand the mechanism of HRU threshold effects on watershed representation as well as streamflow predictions and identify the appropriate HRU thresholds. Findings show that HRU numbers decrease sharply with increasing HRU thresholds. Among different HRU threshold scenarios, the composition of land-use, soil, and slope all contribute to notable variations which are directly related to the model input parameters and consequently affect the streamflow predictions. Results indicate that saturated hydraulic conductivity, average slope of the HRU, and curve number are the three key factors affecting stream discharge when changing the HRU thresholds. It is also found that HRU thresholds have little effect on monthly model performance, while evaluation statistics for daily discharges are more sensitive than monthly results. For daily streamflow predictions, thresholds of 5%/5%/5%(land-use/soil/slope) are the optimum HRU threshold level for the watershed to allow full consideration of model accuracy and efficiency in the present work. Besides, the results provide strategies for selecting appropriate HRU thresholds based on the modelling goal.     

安哥拉东北部地区Inkisi组碎屑锆石U- Pb年龄、地球化学特征及其地质意义

Inkisi组是刚果盆地西南缘最古老的沉积地层之一,岩性主要为一套紫红色、红褐色细粒、细中粒长石砂岩、杂砂岩。通过对安哥拉东北部Inkisi组长石砂岩开展碎屑锆石测年、岩石地球化学研究,探讨其沉积时代、物质来源、沉积环境和大地构造背景,为研究刚果盆地演化提供科学依据。结果表明,碎屑锆石206Pb/238U年龄主要集中于3个年龄峰值区间2350~1900 Ma、1150~850 Ma、850~500 Ma,最年轻的锆石峰值年龄为531±9 Ma,据此,笔者等认为Inkisi组的沉积时代上限应厘定为早寒武世。Inkisi组砂岩地球化学特征显示,物源具有长英质物源近源搬运特征,沉积时期的水体为陆相开阔的淡水环境。通过碎屑锆石年龄谱特征、主微量元素物源判别及构造判别图解,本文认为,West Congo构造带为安哥拉东北部地区Inkisi组主要物源区,Lufilian构造带、Angola 地盾等是其次要物质来源,物源区构造环境主要为活动大陆边缘和被动大陆边缘构造环境背景。     

基于ROSE2.0的普洱地区CINRAD/CC雷达冰雹探测算法评估及参数本地化

为提高冰雹探测算法（Hail Detection Algorithm,HDA）产品的可用性,针对2015—2020年普洱地区监测到的22次冰雹个例,利用新一代雷达业务应用软件ROSE2.0对相关雷达基数据进行回放及产品分析,以命中率、虚警率、临界成功指数为指标对HDA算法在普洱地区的识别效果进行评估并给出本地化参数配置方案。结果表明:HDA算法在普洱地区命中率接近100%,但虚警现象非常普遍,使用强冰雹概率（Probability of Severe Hail,POSH）的预警效果优于任意大小冰雹概率（Probability of Hail,POH）,且冰雹尺寸越大POSH虚警的概率越低。进一步使用模拟测评法对POSH算法的适配参数进行分析,发现正确输入降雹日当天的0 ℃层和-20 ℃层高度能有效减少POSH的虚警率及提高临界成功指数;同时使算法预测的最大冰雹直径普遍偏大的情况得到控制,其中,中小冰雹直径偏离百分比减小76.07%,改善效果显著高于大冰雹。此外,增大反射率因子及POSH阈值能有效控制虚警,但也导致漏报次数快速增加,当阈值太大时命中率明显降低,为了保证较高的命中率和临界成功指数,选择Z=50 dBz或POSH=70%为阈值能明显改善HDA算法的识别效果。