Understanding Agriculture Production and Food Security in Ethiopia from the Perspective of China

Food security and sustainable agricultural development are the hot issues of scientific research, especially after the population affected by hunger surprisingly increased in 2016. Long-lasting and recurrent famines caused by natural disasters and wars have afflicted Ethiopia. Unlike Ethiopia, which is still struggling to achieve food self-sufficiency, China managed to quickly become food self-sufficient at a rapid speed, despite the fact that it also faced the same challenges of famine over the last century. In the backdrop of differing environmental and socio-political challenges the two countries face, comparing the similarities and differences between the two countries will yield important lessons and insights for Ethiopia to follow to achieve food self-sufficiency. Here, the progress towards food security in Ethiopia and China is presented to quantitatively compare the gap of agricultural production between both countries. We found that food production in Ethiopia is heavily constrained by drought, soil degradation, climate change, out-dated agricultural production technologies, and poverty. According to these challenges, we examined corresponding responses in China to propose solutions for achieving food self-sufficiency in Ethiopia, given the realities of its unique national situation.     

Statistics-based Optimization of the Polarimetric Radar Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm and Its Application for a Squall Line in South China

A modified hydrometeor classification algorithm(HCA) is developed in this study for Chinese polarimetric radars. This algorithm is based on the U.S. operational HCA. Meanwhile, the methodology of statistics-based optimization is proposed including calibration checking, datasets selection, membership functions modification, computation thresholds modification,and effect verification. Zhuhai radar, the first operational polarimetric radar in South China, applies these procedures. The systematic bias of calibration is corrected, the reliability of radar measurements deteriorates when the signal-to-noise ratio is low, and correlation coefficient within the melting layer is usually lower than that of the U.S. WSR-88D radar. Through modification based on statistical analysis of polarimetric variables, the localized HCA especially for Zhuhai is obtained,and it performs well over a one-month test through comparison with sounding and surface observations. The algorithm is then utilized for analysis of a squall line process on 11 May 2014 and is found to provide reasonable details with respect to horizontal and vertical structures, and the HCA results—especially in the mixed rain–hail region—can reflect the life cycle of the squall line. In addition, the kinematic and microphysical processes of cloud evolution and the differences between radardetected hail and surface observations are also analyzed. The results of this study provide evidence for the improvement of this HCA developed specifically for China.     

基于卫星资料梯度信息的新型变分同化方法对于台风数值模拟的研究

卫星资料凭着卫星遥感的全球性、连续性和高频次观测等优势,成为一种重要的非常规资料源,但卫星观测仍然存在各种各样的观测误差,其中包含由于观测偶然性所造成的统计学上的随机误差及仪器本身和辐射传输模式等造成的系统性偏差,这些误差在很大程度上影响了卫星资料的质量。文中提出了一种能有效订正卫星观测资料系统性偏差的梯度信息同化算法,该方法用一个梯度算子进行模式变量与观测变量的梯度变换,从而达到订正系统性偏差的目的。本文利用WRF（Weather Research Forecast）模式及其同化模式WRFDA（WRF Data Assimilation system）,以及AIRS（Atmospheric Infrared Sounder）资料,对台风“圆规”进行了实际的数值模拟和同化试验,数值结果表明,梯度信息同化方法能明显改善台风路径的模拟,在处理可信度较低的资料时仍然适用。另外,通过同化诊断分析,发现卫星资料的系统性偏差对于台风数值模拟有较大影响,而文中提出的梯度信息同化方法能较好的解决此类问题。     

定量测量降水量的回波结构自适应算法研究

为提高临近预报中对流性降水估测的准确性,分析了统计法估算降水的局限性。依据降水物理机制和降水回波结构,研究雷达反射率因子定量测量降水量(QPE-Qualitative Precipitation Estimate)的自适应算法,旨在减少由于雨滴谱变化导致的Z-I关系不稳定所引起的降水量测量误差。同时考虑组合反射率因子RC和垂直液态水含量VIL两个参量对降水的影响,建立适于城市区域的动态自适应的Z-I关系,改进对强降水严重低估的问题。     

An Abrupt Rainfall Decrease over the Asian Inland Plateau Region around 1999 and the Possible Underlying Mechanism

A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau(AIP) region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatological average amount,leading to prolonged drought in the Asian inland plateau region. Both the surface air temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the AIP show a significant increase, while the soil moisture exhibits a decrease, after the late 1990s. Furthermore,the normalized difference vegetation index shows an apparent decreasing trend during 1999–2007. Three different drought indices—the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index—present pronounced climate anomalies during 1999–2007, indicating dramatic drought exacerbation in the region after the late 1990s. This decadal change in the summer rainfall may be attributable to a wave-like teleconnection pattern from Western Europe to Asia. A set of model sensitivity experiments suggests that the summer warming sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic could induce this teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, resulting in recent drought in the AIP region.     

基于动态聚类法的安顺降雪环流分型研究

该文以500 hPa环流作为关键影响因子,采用K-means动态聚类分型,将近10 a安顺降雪划分为平直气流型（Ⅰ）、南支槽型（Ⅱ）、多波动型（Ⅲ）3种主要形势。个例分析和合成分析表明:3种形势下降雪过程中相态变化、区域、持续时间等特点有所不同。合成分析还表明：3种形势在500 hPa环流上有明显的区别,Ⅰ型在高原东侧到贵州的气流基本平直,Ⅱ型从高原东侧到贵州有1个明显的南支槽,Ⅲ型在高原东侧到贵州有多个波动槽影响,在高原北侧沿河套地区和孟湾以东均有槽影响,形成阶梯槽。此外滇黔准静止锋的强度、影响区域、物理量以及垂直方向湿度配置、逆温等方面均有所区别：Ⅰ型湿层和上升区浅薄,有1℃左右逆温;Ⅱ型湿层较薄,Ⅱ型在贵州中部有3℃逆温范围较窄;Ⅲ型中低层有宽广的湿层,水汽和抬升条件配合较好,几乎没有逆温。     

南秦岭胭脂坝花岗岩成因:锆石U-Pb年龄、地球化学和Sr-Nd-Pb同位素的制约

秦岭造山带广泛发育新元古代、古生代、早中生代和晚中生代岩浆作用,是长期复杂造山作用的结果。胭脂坝花岗岩岩体出露于南秦岭宁陕地区五龙岩体群的最东部,是南秦岭早中生代花岗岩的重要组成部分。5个花岗岩样品的锆石U-Pb定年结果分别为(202.9±3.5)、(201.0±3.0)、(202.1±2.6)、(200.4±5.4)、(~(205).5±3.3)Ma,平均年龄为(201.9±1.5)Ma,属于早中生代五龙岩体群岩浆作用中晚期的产物。岩石地球化学成分显示该岩体的主体为黑云母花岗岩,具有高硅、富碱的地球化学特征,富集大离子亲石元素,亏损高场强元素,属于弱过铝质、高钾钙碱性岩石系列。初始Sr同位素组成为0.704 31~0.706 78,ε_(Nd)_(t)值为-5.2~-2.0,初始Pb同位素组成相对高,(N(~(206) Pb)/N(~(204) Pb))_(t)=17.737~18.191,(N(~(207) Pb)/N(~(204) Pb))_(t)=15.511~15.574,(N(~(208)Pb)/N(~(204)Pb))_(t)=37.439~38.071。较高的放射性成因Pb同位素组成说明胭脂坝岩浆源区具有扬子地块的属性;初始Sr同位素组成和ε_(Nd)_(t)值随着SiO2含量的升高呈现出线性变化趋势,说明胭脂坝花岗质岩浆在上升侵位过程中存在围岩物质的同化作用;结合与新元古代火山沉积岩(如耀岭河群、武当群、碧口群)相似的初始Sr-Nd同位素组成,推测胭脂坝岩体的岩浆源区主要是具有扬子地块属性的新元古代地壳物质。     

多因素耦合下三峡库区土地利用未来情景模拟

模型模拟和情景变化分析是未来土地利用变化研究的核心内容,本文以2000年三峡库区土地利用现状为基期数据,利用Binary Logistic模型回归分析驱动因子与土地利用间的关系,利用CLUE-S模型对2010年土地利用进行模拟,校验并确定影响库区土地利用驱动因素的主要参数后,基于自然增长、粮食安全、移民建设和生态保护对2020年、2030年库区土地利用情景予以模拟。结果表明：① 通过Binary Logistic模型分析和检验,水田、旱地、林地、草地、建设用地和水域的ROC曲线下面积值均大于0.8,表明所选驱动因子对土地利用的解释能力较强,可用来估算土地利用概率分布;② 2010年各地类模拟结果经验证得Kappa系数分别为水田0.9、旱地0.92、林地0.97、草地0.84、建设用地0.85和水域0.77,总体上能满足模拟与预测需求;③ 多情景模拟显示库区不同土地利用类型在空间上的竞争关系,以及所带来的对库区粮食安全、移民建设、生态保护的影响,包括水田大量转换为旱地（“水改旱”）、耕地与林草地被建设占用、林草地开垦为耕地、陡坡耕地退为林草地等行为,需要在土地利用优化中平衡各方面的需求;④ 多因素、多情景模拟能为库区土地利用提供更为清晰的、可供抉择的政策调控思路。     

国内设施种植气象灾害研究进展

设施种植的主要气象灾害有低温（冷冻害）、寡照、风灾、雪灾及其复合灾害等,从国内设施种植气象灾害指标、灾害监测预警、灾害风险及灾害影响等方面对前人研究成果和进展进行归纳总结。灾害指标的研究所采用的方法主要是人工控制试验或对历年实际发生的灾害样本进行分析总结;灾害监测预警方法一般是用设施内小气候或设施外气象条件作为灾害指标,将灾害指标植入计算机系统,对灾害进行监测预警;风险评估多是从灾害的危险性角度去研究,确定灾害的风险概率、风险指数等;灾害影响的研究多集中在对作物生理生态反应等方面。同时从设施种植气象灾害研究存在的薄弱环节出发,提出设施种植气象灾害指标、灾害监测预警评估方法及灾害的影响等方面仍是今后一段时间研究的重点和热点。     

现代变形监测技术的发展现状与展望

本文对现代变形监测技术从空间、地面、地下三个方面的最新发展入手,综述了各技术目前的应用现状,客观分析了测量机器人、GPS、三维激光扫描、光纤传感器、D-InSAR等技术在变形监测领域应用的特点、优势与不足。提出了随着现代通讯网络技术和G IS技术的发展,变形监测将逐步实现数据获取的自动化,监测设备多层次的集优化,变形数据分析与预警的信息化。