地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例

城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。     

Dynamic response of a pile considering the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding layered soil

Assuming that the pile variable cross section interacts with the surrounding soil in the same way as the pile toe does with the bearing stratus, the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding soil is represented by a Voigt model, which consists of a spring and a damper connected in parallel, and the spring constant and damper coefficient are derived. Thus, a more rigid pile–soil interaction model is proposed. The surrounding soil layers are modeled as axisymmetric continuum in which its vertical displacements are taken into account and the pile is assumed to be a Rayleigh–Love rod with material damping. Allowing for soil properties and pile defects, the pile–soil system is divided into several layers. By means of Laplace transform, the governing equations of soil layers are solved in frequency domain, and a new relationship linking the impedance functions at the variable‐section interface between the adjacent pile segments is derived using a Heaviside step function, which is called amended impedance function transfer method. On this basis, the impedance function at pile top is derived by amended impedance function transfer method proposed in this paper. Then, the velocity response at pile top can be obtained by means of inverse Fourier transform and convolution theorem. The effects of pile–soil system parameters are studied, and some conclusions are proposed. Then, an engineering example is given to confirm the rationality of the solution proposed in this paper. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water mining from the deep critical zone by apple trees growing on loess

There have been significant recent advances in understanding the ecohydrology of deep soil. However, the links between root development and water usage in the deep critical zone remains poorly understood. To clarify the interaction between water use and root development in deep soil, we investigated soil water and root profiles beyond maximum rooting depth in five apple orchards planted on farmland with stand ages of 8, 11, 15, 18, and 22 years in a subhumid region on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Apple trees rooted progressively deeper for water with increasing stand age and reached 23.2 ± 0.8 m for the 22‐year‐old trees. Soil water deficit in deep soil increased with tree age and was 1,530 ± 43 mm for a stand age of 22 years. Measured root deepening rate was far great than the reported pore water velocity, which demonstrated that trees are mining resident old water. The deficits are not replenished during the life‐span of the orchard, showing a one‐way mining of the critical zone water. The one‐way root water mining may have changed the fine root profile from an exponential pattern in the 8‐year‐old orchard to a relative uniform distribution in older orchards. Our findings enhance our understanding of water‐root interaction in deep soil and reveal the unintended consequences of critical zone dewatering during the lifespan of apple trees.     

Generation of continuous surface soil moisture dataset using combined optical and thermal infrared images

Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a critical variable for understanding water and energy flux between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. An easy to apply algorithm for deriving SSM time series that primarily uses temporal parameters derived from simulated and in situ datasets has recently been reported. This algorithm must be assessed for different biophysical and atmospheric conditions by using actual geostationary satellite images. In this study, two currently available coarse‐scale SSM datasets (microwave and reanalysis product) and aggregated in situ SSM measurements were implemented to calibrate the time‐invariable coefficients of the SSM retrieval algorithm for conditions in which conventional observations are rare. These coefficients were subsequently used to obtain SSM time series directly from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images over the study area of a well‐organized soil moisture network named REMEDHUS in Spain. The results show a high degree of consistency between the estimated and actual SSM time series values when using the three SSM dataset‐calibrated time‐invariable coefficients to retrieve SSM, with coefficients of determination (R²) varying from 0.304 to 0.534 and root mean square errors ranging from 0.020 m³/m³ to 0.029 m³/m³. Further evaluation with different land use types results in acceptable debiased root mean square errors between 0.021 m³/m³ and 0.048 m³/m³ when comparing the estimated MSG pixel‐scale SSM with in situ measurements. These results indicate that the investigated method is practical for deriving time‐invariable coefficients when using publicly accessed coarse‐scale SSM datasets, which is beneficial for generating continuous SSM dataset at the MSG pixel scale.     

基于网络分析法的武汉市景观生态网络格局特征分析

从网络分析法的角度对武汉市水系网络、道路网络、绿地网络及其复合网络构成的景观生态网络格局进行分析。根据总体景观生态网络格局特征、分区统计景观生态网络格局特征、分等级统计景观生态网络格局特征分析结果显示,道路网络和绿地网络的α指数、β指数、γ指数都明显好于水系网络,相比较而言,三网复合网络都有比独立网络更好的连接度,分区统计结果显示,主城区复合网络的三项指标均处于最高,网络连通度最好,分等级统计结果显示,等级道路网络的α指数、β指数、γ指数均高于全部道路网络,等级水系和等级绿地网络的α指数、β指数、γ指数均低于全部水系和全部绿地网络。     

高光谱影像概率分类向量机分类方法研究

从分析基于支持向量机和相关向量机的高光谱影像分类方法的优势和不足出发,将基于概率分类向量机的方法用于高光谱影像分类试验。在贝叶斯理论框架下,概率分类向量机为基函数权值引入截断Gauss先验概率分布,使得不同类别的基函数权值具有不同符号的先验分布,并利用EM算法进行参数推断,得到足够稀疏的概率模型,弥补了相关向量机选取错误类别的样本作为相关向量的不足,从而有效地提高了模型的分类精度和稳定性。OMIS和PHI影像分类试验表明,概率分类向量机能够很好地应用在高光谱影像分类。     

广西油麻坡钨钼矿床成岩成矿年代学研究及其地质意义

广西博白_岑溪断裂带位于钦杭成矿带南段,既是一条长期活动的地体边界断裂带,也是一条岩浆活动频繁的W_Mo_Sn_Pb_Zn_Sb_Au_Ag多金属成矿带。文章以该带中的广西博白县油麻坡矽卡岩型钨钼矿床为研究对象,在详细的岩性鉴别和划分的基础上,对矿区内花岗岩类进行了单颗粒锆石LA_ICP_MS锆石U_Pb测年,获得深灰色花岗斑岩的等时线年龄为(479.7±3.9)Ma,灰色黑云母花岗闪长岩为(109.7±1.1)Ma,浅灰色细粒白云母花岗岩为(103.3±1.2)Ma。辉钼矿Re_Os测年获得加权平均年龄为(97.4±1.9)Ma。由此可见,油麻坡岩体为一个复式岩体,由早奥陶世(加里东期)的花岗斑岩和早白垩世(燕山晚期)的黑云母花岗闪长岩和细粒白云母花岗岩组成,其中,黑云母花岗闪长岩构成油麻坡岩体的主体。钨钼矿形成于早白垩世晚期(即燕山晚期),与黑云母花岗闪长岩和白云母花岗岩密切相关。这些高精度测年数据的获得,进一步表明博白断裂带是一条长期活动的断裂,其在加里东期已经活动,并伴有岩浆岩的侵位。燕山晚期,该断裂重新复活,并导致大量的岩浆活动和一定强度的W_Mo_Sn_Pb_Zn_Sb_Au_Ag成矿作用,形成由多个大_中型矿床组成的多金属成矿带。博白_岑溪成矿带属于华南100~80 Ma大规模成矿的一部分,成矿背景与华南地区白垩纪的地壳伸展、钦杭成矿带的再次裂陷有关。     

西藏班公湖-怒江缝合带西段特提斯洋晚二叠世(Ca.252Ma)洋内俯冲的地球化学和年代学证据

多龙蛇绿混杂岩是班公湖-怒江蛇绿岩带的重要组成部分,位于西藏阿里地区改则县北西约120 km的多龙矿集区内,大地构造位置处于班公湖-怒江缝合带中西段,南羌塘板块南缘。多龙蛇绿混杂岩主要分布在多龙矿区中部及东北部。矿区中部蛇绿岩主要由辉长岩、辉绿(玢)岩、枕状玄武岩、气孔杏仁状玄武岩、玄武质岩屑凝灰岩及硅质岩等组成,东西向延伸约35 km,南北宽3~7 km,出露面积约180 km2;该蛇绿岩残片的组成单元(包括基性岩单元以及硅质岩单元等)多被构造肢解,整体表现为不规则透镜体,以构造岩片的形式断续分布于侏罗系次深海陆棚-盆地斜坡复陆碎屑岩-类复理石建造内的断层带中,构成典型的网结状构造。矿区东北部蛇绿岩主要由含铁斜方辉石橄榄蛇纹岩、玻基玄武岩、碳酸盐化角闪辉长岩、微纹层状硅质岩等组成,该蛇绿混杂岩带沿北西-南东向断裂展布,延伸约12 km,宽1~3 km,出露面积约30 km2;该蛇绿岩残片组成单元(包括超基性岩单元、基性岩单元以及硅质岩单元等)均呈构造岩片的形式产出在三叠系灰岩地层内的断层带中。     

江苏盐城地区一次持续雾-霾天气过程的综合分析

2013年12月上旬江苏盐城地区出现了一次历史罕见的持续重度雾-霾天气,利用盐城市常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料(1°×1°)及环境监测中心站的污染物浓度资料等,对此次过程的环流背景、气象要素、大气层结特征以及动力条件、污染情况等进行了综合性分析。结果发现:12月上旬中高层冷空气势力弱,以纬向环流为主;低层弱的水平风场为雾-霾的发生发展提供了有利的环流背景;稳定的层结特征,近地面高强度的贴地逆温和持续较低的混合层高度是此次雾-霾天气长时间维持的重要因素;边界层内弱正散度及负涡度是此次雾-霾天气得以维持发展的动力因子;通过后向轨迹分型和火点监测资料分析发现:污染物的长距离输送在此次重污染天气的形成过程中起到了一定作用。最后,文中建立了能见度和PM_(2.5)浓度、相对湿度的非线性回归方程,对能见度的预报效果较好,为实际业务应用中雾-霾的预报提供了有利的依据。     

一次东北冷涡暴雨过程成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6h的再分析资料和FY-2E红外云图、TBB等资料,对2014年7月7—8日由东北冷涡引发内蒙古东北部的暴雨过程形成原因进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:1低空急流是主要水汽来源,不同地区出现暴雨的机制不同,兴安盟东部、呼伦贝尔市东南部由于槽前、切变南缘地面暖锋附近,中低空急流汇合处,强辐合抬升触发不稳定能量释放导致强天气的发生,而呼伦贝尔市西南部暴雨跟中上层冷涡的生成发展与对应的地面低压逐步耦合的动力作用相关;2湿位涡的分布对暴雨的发生、落区有较强的指示性作用,700hPa正负值区过度带的配置是暴雨发生发展的有利潜势,暴雨发生在700hPa等值线密集带和850hPa MPV2大于等于0的叠加区域内,700hPa正负过渡带附近,偏向于正值一侧;3最大降水量的雨强落后于云团TBB最低值1~2h,并不是强TBB与最强降水同步出现。