近岸溢油漂移扩散预测方法研究——以胶州湾溢油事件为例

近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。     

海岛旅游效率空间格局演变及影响因素研究 ——以中国12个海岛县(区)为例

旅游产业是海岛地区的重要产业之一，借助 DEA 模型测度 12 个海岛县 （区） 的旅游效率，采用组合方法对海岛旅游效率的空间特征演变进行刻画，并通过 EVIEWS 软件分析海岛旅游效率的影响因素。 （1） 海岛旅游综合效率总体不高，技术效率是海岛旅游效率发展的主要驱动力，规模效率水平较低，海岛旅游发展能力未得到全面发挥。 （2） 海岛县 （区） 之间旅游效率总体差异不大，相对差异明显。海岛旅游效率空间状态演变由不稳定趋向于稳定，可能存在“贫困陷阱”和“俱乐部趋同”现象。 （3） 经济发展水平、生态环境、科技信息对海岛旅游效率的发展起到积极的推动作用，产业结构、交通条件、城镇化是海岛旅游效率发展的约束性因素。     

基于网络药理学探究补阳还五汤治疗颈椎病的作用机制

目的：基于网络药理学与分子对接技术分析补阳还五汤治疗颈椎病的作用机制。方法：使用TCMSP、化学专业数据库获取补阳还五汤的活性成分,并对潜在靶点进行预测及规范。分别从PharmGKB、DisGeNET、OMIM、GeneCards数据库中得到颈椎病疾病靶点,利用韦恩图获取补阳还五汤与颈椎病的交集靶点。通过CytoScape软件构建中药-活性成分-疾病靶点和蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用（PPI）网络,获得核心有效成分与关键靶点,利用David数据库对潜在靶点进行富集分析。最后运用AutoDock Vina软件对补阳还五汤核心有效成分与关键靶点进行分子对接验证。结果：共获得补阳还五汤治疗颈椎病的有效活性成分97个,包括槲皮素、山柰酚、黄芩素、木犀草素等;交集靶点64个,关键靶点有白细胞介素-6（IL-6）、肿瘤坏死因子（TNF）、丝氨酸/苏氨酸蛋白激酶1（AKT1）、白细胞介素-1B（IL-1B）等;主要涉及肿瘤坏死因子（TNF）、白细胞介素-17（IL-17）、磷脂酰肌醇3-激酶（PI3K）/蛋白激酶B（Akt）等信号通路,分子对接结果显示核心有效成分与关键靶点之间结合紧密,为补阳还五汤治疗颈椎病提供相应条件。结论：该研究在总体上预测了补阳还五汤治疗颈椎病的活性成分、靶点和信号通路,作用途径广泛,为下一步的临床应用提供参考及思路。     

Variational iteration solving method for El Nio phenomenon atmospheric physics of nonlinear model

1 IntroductionThe El Ni’o atmospheric physics oscillation is anabnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacificocean- atmosphere interactions. Studies on the El Ni(ophenomenon are very attractive (Lin et al., 2000; Linet al., 2001, 2002; Wang, 2001; Feng et al., 2001;Feng et al., 2002; Liu et al., 2002; Wei and Chen,2003; Xie et al., 2002; Zhu et al., 2002; Pu et al.,2003; Gu et al., 2004; Yu and Liu, 2004). Lin and Mo(2004), Mo and Lin (2004) and Mo et al. (2004) alsostudied a s…     

DISTRIBUTION, ECOLOGY AND RESOURCE CONSERVATION OF THE SPOTTED SEAL IN THE HUANGHAI AND BOHAI SEAS

The Phoca largha is found in the coastal waters of China from the Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea to the northern part of East China Sea. Its breeding ground is situated in ice packs in the Liaodong Gulf., from about 40°10′ to 40°45′ N, from 121 °15′ to 122°E. At the breeding season, male and female seals in pairs form many family groups. The pup is born with white lanugo fur on ice packs in Liaodong Gulf during a period from January to the middle of February, and usually carried by its mother on her back to run away. However, from February to March, it could be caught around some islands in Bohai Strait. In recent years, these species resources have been reduced rapidly. It must be strengthened to protect the seals from extinction.     

ELASTIC CLASSIFICATION OF MODIFIED WATER MASS IN SHALLOW SEA

In this paper, the principle and steps for differentiating water masses by fuzzy cluster method are introduced, and a scalar formula based on Euclidean distance and a method for determining objectively the number of water masses by F-test are proposed. Consequently, a method and specific steps for differentiating modified water masses in shallow sea according to fuzzy elastic classification are given. Computation of the membership degree in which each sample belongs to every water mass determines conveniently and quantitatively the cores, boundaries of water masses and mixed zones. An example for the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea is shown and compared with previous results.     

EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC SST AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH

The variations of sea surface temperature (SST) on the east Pacific asd their relation to general atmospheric circulation are examined according to the data of the monthly mean SST and the 500mb level height for the period from January 1951 to December 1980.     

南海北部含油气构造上方化探异常研究

在南海北部利用地球化学方法作为油气勘探的一种辅助手段。在6个航次中采集了沉积物、底层海水及海面大气样品，测定了近50种化探指标，并采用稳健统计方法进行了数据处理和异常圈定。化探结果在油气藏上方发现了清晰的、具不同指标组合的综合化探异常，与邻近空构造形成鲜明的对照。圈闭顶部的块状异常和圈闭周绿的环状、半环状异常是下伏油气藏的良好指示，而剖面上呈锯齿状、平面上呈线状的异常则与断裂带有关。实践表明，建立已知油气藏上方的化探异常模式及解剖已知空构造上方的地球化学特征对于指导本区或邻区的化探异常评价是十分必要的。     

关于多项式特征值的条件数

Tisseur(2000)研究了非齐次多项式特征值问题的条件数，所得结果的不足是对无穷特征值必须另外处理；Declieu和Tisseur(2003)运用微分几何方法研究了齐次多项式特征值问题的条件数，所得结果的不足之处是与系数矩阵的尺度化(scaling)有关。这两种条件数都有各自的应用范围。本文基于投影尺度引入齐次多项式特征值问题的条件数，其优点是与系数矩阵的尺度化无关，因而也许会有较广泛的应用。     

Sediment Transport in Rivers and Coastal Waters

Following Bagnold's approach, a relationship between sediment transport and energy dissipation is developed. The major assumption made in the study is that the near bed velocity plays a dominant role in the process of sediment transport. A general relationship between energy dissipation and sediment transport is first proposed. Then the equations for total sediment transport are derived by introducing the appropriate expression of energy dissipation rate under different conditions, such as open channel flows, combination of wave and current, as well as longshore sediment transport. Within the flows investigated, the derived relationships are fairly consistent with the available data over a wide range of conditions.