PRECIS模拟系统对中国地面气温变化的QUMP集成预估

利用英国Hadley中心QUMP模式(Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections)集合的5组敏感性试验产生的全球气候背景场驱动区域气候模拟系统PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)产生的降尺度数据,分析PRECIS对中国地面气温变化的模拟能力,同时对SRES A1B温室气体排放情景下21世纪中期(2021~2050年)中国区域的温度做出预估。模拟能力分析结果显示:PRECIS在5组背景场驱动下都可以较好地模拟出气候基准时段(1961~1900年)中国区域气温的年变化和时空分布特征,但存在暖偏差,高敏感度模拟实验的暖偏差幅度要大于中低敏感度。预估结果显示:5组敏感性试验降尺度模拟的温度均呈增加趋势,其中最低温度的变暖幅度高于平均温度和最高温度。高敏感度试验Q10模拟的升温幅度介于低敏感度模拟和中敏感度模拟之间,其他敏感性试验表现出高敏感度模拟的升温幅度高于中敏感度模拟,而中敏感度模拟高于低敏感度模拟。从模拟的升温空间分布上看,西北地区升温幅度最显著,可达2.08~2.61°C,华南地区升温幅度相对较小,为1.33~1.84°C,但不同敏感度模拟的升温幅度具有一定的区域差异。     

Comparison of Two Air Pollution Episodes over Northeast China in Winter 2016/17 Using Ground-Based Lidar

This study analyzes and compares aerosol properties and meteorological conditions during two air pollution episodes in 19–22 (E1) and 25–26 (E2) December 2016 in Northeast China. The visibility, particulate matter (PM) mass concentration, and surface meteorological observations were examined, together with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient and volume depolarization ratio that were measured by a ground-based lidar in Shenyang of Liaoning Province, China during December 2016–January 2017. Results suggest that the low PBL height led to poor pollution dilution in E1, while the high PBL accompanied by low visibility in E2 might have been due to cross-regional and vertical air transmission. The PM mass concentration decreased as the PBL height increased in E1 while these two variables were positively correlated in E2. The enhanced winds in E2 diffused the pollutants and contributed largely to the aerosol transport. Strong temperature inversion in E1 resulted in increased PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations, and the winds in E2 favoured the southwesterly transport of aerosols from the North China Plain into the region surrounding Shenyang. The large extinction coefficient was partially attributed to the local pollution under the low PBL with high ground-surface PM mass concentrations in E1, whereas the cross-regional transport of aerosols within a high PBL and the low PM mass concentration near the ground in E2 were associated with severe aerosol extinction at high altitudes. These results may facilitate better understanding of the vertical distribution of aerosol properties during winter pollution events in Northeast China.     

三峡库区丰都-忠县段消落带不同高程土壤镉及其形态的分布特征

镉(Cd)是目前三峡库区消落带主要的污染物之一,其迁移和形态转化直接威胁水环境安全.选择库区丰都-忠县段消落带,按照高程差异分别于不同土地利用类型(农田、林地、果园和村庄)下采集土壤样品,利用化学连续提取法测定Cd的形态组成,探讨影响消落带土壤中Cd及其形态空间分布的关键因素.结果表明,消落带土壤中Cd的平均含量为0.65 mg/kg,可交换态及碳酸盐结合态是土壤中Cd的主要形态,占比达到41.21%,残渣态和铁锰氧化物结合态次之,有机物及硫化物结合态占比最低.不同土地利用类型下消落带土壤Cd的含量整体上不存在显著性差异,表明当地人类活动对土壤Cd的直接贡献较弱.消落带土壤Cd及其形态的含量与高程呈显著负相关,且在160～165 m区域发生明显转变,水位变化导致的泥沙沉积可能是控制消落带Cd空间分布的主要因素.此外,土壤理化性质,尤其是细颗粒泥沙对Cd及其形态分布具有明显影响,将来需重点关注泥沙理化属性对Cd迁移及形态转化的影响.     

大学生气候变化意识的一次调查——以南京农业大学为例

 大学气候变化教育是国家应对气候变化能力建设的重要组成部分。通过一个自主设计的问卷,随机抽样调查了南京农业大学部分在校本科生,评价和分析了其对气候变化问题的认识水平、应对行动态度与行动的意愿性等。结果表明,被调查者在气候变化与农业的关系上有较高的认知,但在气候变化意识的不同方面和年级间及专业间都存在一定差异。农学类学生对于温室气体的产生途径及其与气候变化的关系了解不够,不过,高年级学生和农科类学生关于气候变化与农业关系方面的认知分别显著高于低年级和文科类学生。然而,学生个体间在应对气候变化的参与态度上有很大差异,而气候变化的总体意识和参与态度与年级关系相对较弱。看来,高等农业院校本科教育中急需加强气候变化教育。建议开设气候变化及其应对的公共选修课或专门气候变化管理课程,以适应应对气候变化的人才培养需求。     

莒县沭河下游地区水文地质条件及富水块段特征

基于在鲁东南低山丘陵区莒县地区开展的1∶5万水文地质调查工作,详细论述了沭河下游地区水文地质条件,将区内地下水类型划分为松散岩类孔隙水、碎屑岩类孔隙裂隙水、碳酸盐岩类裂隙岩溶水以及基岩裂隙水4类,并总结了其含水岩组富水性;分析了地下水补给、径流、排泄特征与地下水动态变化特征。圈定了有集中供水意义的第四系孔隙水富水地段3处,碎屑岩类孔隙裂隙水地下水富水地段1处,基岩裂隙水地下水富水地段1处。总结了地层阻水型蓄水构造和断层储水构造2种蓄水构造类型,分析了富水机理,从而提出了允许开采量。利用总结的区内富水块段,共施工具有供水意义的水文地质钻孔10眼,总涌水量7017.84m~3/d,可解决该地区近10万人的用水和393.33多公顷农田灌溉问题,对下一步找水定井工作具有指导意义。     

巢湖表层沉积物中多溴联苯醚的分布和污染源解析

在巢湖不同区域采集了16个表层沉积物样品,利用气相色谱-质谱仪测定沉积物中低溴代多溴联苯醚(LPBDEs)和BDE209的含量,并对其残留、组成、空间分布和污染来源进行分析.结果表明,巢湖沉积物中共计检测到9种多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)化合物.∑LPBDEs的含量为0.001~2.75 ng/g,平均值为1.15 ng/g,平均检测率为44.83%;BDE209的含量为1.16~5.49 ng/g,平均值为2.83 ng/g,检测率为100%.与国内其他区域相比,巢湖沉积物中PBDEs含量总体处于中等水平.巢湖沉积物中各类LPBDEs和BDE209同系物含量为:西半湖东半湖湖心.巢湖沉积物中PBDEs以BDE209为主要成分,不同采样点PBDEs同系物的组成不同.相关性分析表明BDE209与LPBDEs在环境中的迁移存在相关性.     

基于数据驱动的海洋重力专题图快速成图技术与应用

为解决海洋重力专题分幅制图重复性高以及成图工作量大的问题,同时为了更好地满足各类应急服务需求,本文结合数据统计特性分析及数据驱动技术,开展了海洋重力专题图快速成图技术研究,并优化了制图流程。本文以印度洋为研究区域开展了快速成图技术的应用,实现了海洋重力专题图件的批量快速制作,与常规制图方式对比,制图时间节省约60%,显著提升了图件制作工作效率。此技术为今后海洋专题快速制图奠定了基础,对推动海洋地球物理资料服务、数据交换共享及快速应急服务具有重要的意义。     

柴达木盆地西部SG-1钻孔中白云石成因探讨

由于无机环境下不能沉淀白云石,该矿物的成因一直是学术争论的焦点。柴达木盆地西部钻孔SG-1（长938 m）中出现了大量白云石和铁白云石,白云石主要分布在钻孔下部500 m,而铁白云石主要分布在下部418 m。结合湖泊从淡水湖、咸水湖、盐湖至干盐湖的演化过程,文章分析了白云石和铁白云石的成因。白云石是盐类矿物的一种、且无机环境下不能沉淀,蒸发作用和微生物介导是白云石矿物形成的两个重要影响因素。蒸发作用为白云石的形成提供了足够浓度的Mg2+,微生物的介导作用帮助Mg2+克服动力学障碍进入碳酸钙晶格形成白云石。白云石是湖泊演化早期析出的一种碳酸盐类矿物,主要在咸水湖环境中沉淀,盐湖环境中主要沉淀硫酸盐类和氯化物矿物,在盐湖这种高盐度环境下能够生存的微生物非常少,白云石含量明显降低。铁白云石是白云石矿物的一种,是Fe2+替代白云石中的Mg2+形成的次生矿物。Fe2+有两种来源：粘土矿物转换过程中的释放和深部热液来源。Fe2+进入白云石的过程主要是在无机、高温环境下完成的,但不排除微生物的介导作用。     

The characteristics of the structure,strain and kinematic vorticity of the Wulian detachment fault zone,Shandong Peninsula,China

As one of the vital tectonic units of the Wulian Metamorphic Core Complex(MCC), the Wulian detachment fault zone(WDFZ), which developed in the Jiaodong peninsula, separates the lower plate of the ultrahigh pressure(UHP) metamorphic rocks in the Sulu orogenic belt from the upper plate of the early Cretaceous Zhucheng basin and the basin basement. The fault zone generally strikes NNE with a dip in the west along the southern portion of the MCC and strikes NE with a dip in the WNWalong the northern portion. The fault zone displays a wavy-tile-shaped extension on the plane, principally composed of the fault breccias and mylonite and transits downward to the mylonitic gneiss. As a whole, the detachment fault zone shows a top-towest or a WNW extension. By calculating the harmonic mean, we obtain a Flynn index K of 0.98–2.0, and the mean value is approximately 1.35 in the fault zone. According to the polar Mohr construction, the extensional crenulation cleavage, the RS/θ,and the quartz C-axial fabric methods, we acquire mean kinematic vorticity values of 0.64–0.97, 0.76–0.93, 0.6–0.92, and 0.63–0.98 with mean values of 0.83, 0.80, 0.78 and 0.86, respectively, for mylonite and promylonite. The strain measurement results and the kinematic vorticity values indicate that the WDFZ is a normal ductile shear zone developed in the extensional setting.The kinematic track shows that the kinematic vorticity value decreases gradually from the NW to the SE as a whole. A simple shear dominates in the middle and upper parts of the shear zone, which is reflected by a higher vorticity value(0.75, up to 0.98),a low thinning rate and a lower K value. In contrast, toward the footwall, the pure shear is increased significantly, showing a lower vorticity value(0.70, low to 0.64), a relatively high thinning rate and a higher K value. Combined with the geotectonic background, the development and evolution of the WDFZ should respond to lithospheric thinning and the destruction of the North China Craton(NCC). As a result, the WDFZ can be defined as a thinning normal shear zone developed in the extension tectonic setting and the combined result of the simple shear caused by the crust extension and pure shear led by the rapid uplift of the footwall and magmatic upwelling.     

融合小波变换与神经网络的RSSI室内测距算法

提出一种融合小波变换与神经网络的基于WiFi的RSSI室内测距算法,该方法通过小波变换与神经网络对RSSI数据、路径损耗模型进行修正。利用小波分解与单支重构方法,只对低频的近似部分进行单支重构,舍弃高频细节部分,同时使用神经网络训练特定环境下的路径损耗模型。通过实例验证表明,该算法最大测距误差、最小测距误差、平均测距误差分别为1.206、0.037、0.692 m;平均测距误差比路径损耗模型、BP神经网络模型分别提高了1.846、0.469 m。