Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Gravity change and land uplift in Fennoscandia 1966–1984

An analysis is made of the results from all repeated gravity measurements of the Fennoscandian land uplift gravity line 63°. The line is, thereby, divided into two separate parts: one part west of the land uplift maximum, and the other part east of the land uplift maximum. A statistically significant change of gravity is found both for the western part and the eastern one. Both parts give a relation between gravity change and land uplift of about ?0.22μgal/mm.     

Solar rotation, 1966–1978

Photospheric and chromospheric spectroscopic Doppler rotation rates for the full solar disk are analyzed for the period July, 1966 to July, 1978. An approximately linear secular increase of the equatorial rate of 3.7% for these 12 years is found (in confirmation of Howard, 1976). The high latitude rates above 65 ° appear to vary with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 8%, or more, phased to the sunspot cycle such that the most rapid rotation occurs at, or following, solar maximum. The chromosphere, as indicated by H, has continued to rotate on the average 3% faster than the photosphere agreeing with past observations. Sources of error are discussed and evaluated.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

Dunes on Titan observed by Cassini Radar

Thousands of longitudinal dunes have recently been discovered by the Titan Radar Mapper on the surface of Titan. These are found mainly within ±30° of the equator in optically-, near-infrared-, and radar-dark regions, indicating a strong proportion of organics, and cover well over 5% of Titan's surface. Their longitudinal duneform, interactions with topography, and correlation with other aeolian forms indicate a single, dominant wind direction aligned with the dune axis plus lesser, off-axis or seasonally alternating winds. Global compilations of dune orientations reveal the mean wind direction is dominantly eastwards, with regional and local variations where winds are diverted around topographically high features, such as mountain blocks or broad landforms. Global winds may carry sediments from high latitude regions to equatorial regions, where relatively drier conditions prevail, and the particles are reworked into dunes, perhaps on timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years. On Titan, adequate sediment supply, sufficient wind, and the absence of sediment carriage and trapping by fluids are the dominant factors in the presence of dunes.     

Oceanic versus island arc origin of ophiolites

The silica content of basaltic rocks is an unreliable variable with which to distinguish ultramafic-mafic complexes developed at ocean ridges from those potentially formed beneath volcanic island arcs. Data from Appalachian ophiolites supports the view that silica metasomatism is responsible for the high silica content of supposed calc-alkaline basaltic rocks found in ophiolites such as Troodos, and that the high-silica (70 wt.%) leucocratic rocks associated with ophiolites are of tholeiitic rather than calc-alkaline parentage. The use of titanium as a discriminant of tectonic environment is also suspect because the titanium content of basalts associated with Appalachian ophiolites as well as those recently recovered from the Atlantic ocean floor ranges from values even lower than those typical of island arc tholeiites to values typical of abyssal tholeiites. However, the internal stratigraphy of ophiolites in both the Appalachian and Tethyan systems can only be explained on the basis of the postulate that ophiolites originate at oceanic spreading centres rather than beneath island arcs.     

京津冀及周边一般性降水与短时强降水特征对比

京津冀及周边地区为我国北方强降水的多发区域。基于1966—2021年87个国家级气象站逐小时降水资料对比分析暖季5—9月一般性降水和短时强降水的空间分布及年际变化,并基于1980—2021年298个气象站分析日变化等特征。结果表明：京津冀及周边地区的渤海西侧平原区域存在短时强降水强度极端性显著区域。渤海西侧平原以外区域两类降水平均小时降水量、强度和降水时次百分比均呈增长趋势,但短时强降水的增幅更高,而渤海西侧平原区域趋势则均不明显。渤海西侧平原区域和渤海西侧平原以外区域的一般性降水平均小时降水量和降水时次百分比日变化幅度显著弱于短时强降水;7—9月渤海西侧平原区域降水夜发性更明显,且相比另一区域半峰持续时间多出约2 h。2005年后渤海西侧平原区域和渤海西侧平原以外区域短时强降水平均小时降水量和降水时次百分比下午时段均明显减弱,但午夜后至清晨明显增加。     

On the Principle of Least Interaction Action and the Laplacean satellites of Jupiter and Uranus

The Principle of Least Interaction Action, which explains the observed preference in the Solar System for two-satellite resonant configurations, is shown to apply also to the Laplacean satellites of Jupiter and Uranus, in the sense that these triplet resonant structures lie close to configurations for which the time-mean of the action associated with the mutual interaction of the satellites is an overall minimum. Far from the minimum configuration, significant changes take place in the major semi-axes on time-scales ～10⁶-10⁷y. Both systems require times ～10⁸ y to come close to the minimum configuration; to approach resonance to the observed precision of the Laplace relationship (3×10^?4 for the Uranian case, 2×10^?7 for the Jovian case) requires, for both systems, a time closely comparable with the age of the solar system.