Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Engineering problems associated with expansive clays from Romania

Engineering problems associated with expansive clay formations, which have a large swelling and shrinking potential, exist in different regions of Romania.In the general framework of the study of the behaviour of expansive clays, the present paper describes some particular aspects connected with the swelling and shrinkage processes and their engineering effects in Romania.The differences between swelling potential relationships, obtained by two different methods are presented and discussed. Swelling pressure tests were accomplished using the available standard techniques, as well as a specially developed cell pressure equipment.Attention is drawn to the stages of the shrinkage process as related to soil structure. It was found that, in a general case, there are three distinct?tages: initial, normal and residual shrinkage.Laboratory investigations have shown that in soils with an anisotropic structure, the directional variation of shrinkage strains is elliptical in shape, with the maximum shrinkage normal to particle orientation.The engineering aspects of the results are discussed.     

Oceanic versus island arc origin of ophiolites

The silica content of basaltic rocks is an unreliable variable with which to distinguish ultramafic-mafic complexes developed at ocean ridges from those potentially formed beneath volcanic island arcs. Data from Appalachian ophiolites supports the view that silica metasomatism is responsible for the high silica content of supposed calc-alkaline basaltic rocks found in ophiolites such as Troodos, and that the high-silica (70 wt.%) leucocratic rocks associated with ophiolites are of tholeiitic rather than calc-alkaline parentage. The use of titanium as a discriminant of tectonic environment is also suspect because the titanium content of basalts associated with Appalachian ophiolites as well as those recently recovered from the Atlantic ocean floor ranges from values even lower than those typical of island arc tholeiites to values typical of abyssal tholeiites. However, the internal stratigraphy of ophiolites in both the Appalachian and Tethyan systems can only be explained on the basis of the postulate that ophiolites originate at oceanic spreading centres rather than beneath island arcs.