Calibration of regional pollen data to construct maps of former forest types in southern Sweden

A method was developed to construct maps of former forest types based on regional pollen data in southern Sweden. The considered species were Alnus, Betula, Carpinus, Corylus, Fagus, Fraxinus, Juniperus, Picea, Pinus, Populus, Quercus, Salix, Tilia and Ulmus. A network of 37 regional pollen sites with high data quality from lakes and peat deposits were selected from Sweden south of 60 ° N. Pollen percentage values were calculated and converted into estimates of tree composition. For controlling the reliability of the reconstruction, the estimates from the core-tops were compared with present day forest inventory data, and local pollen diagrams were compared with the regional pollen diagrams. An inverse distance weighted interpolation algorithm was used to generate maps for each tree species distribution at 2000 BP, 1500 BP, 1000 BP, 500 BP and 0 BP. A supervised classification routine was implemented to generate nine different forest types common to the five studied time intervals. The maps show that the amounts and patterns of distribution of the species and the forest types have varied in a significant but systematic manner through time. The changes are due to human activities, migrational patterns and changes in climate. These maps will be of value as a basis for future landscape planning, forestry and conservation of biodiversity.This is the 20th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.     

Palaeointensity In the Pelagic Realm: Marine Sediment Data Compared With Archaeomagnetic and Lake Sediment Records

Summary. Four box cores collected from the Ontong—Java plateau during the Eurydice expedition have been used to make relative geomagnetic palaeo-intensity measurements. Rock magnetic measurements on the sediments show that they are characterized by a uniform magnetic mineralogy, and that they are suitable for relative intensity estimates. These are obtained by normalizing the NRM by an ARM imparted in a low DC bias field. the palaeoceanographic event known as the preservation spike is used to establish a crude time-scale for the record so that it may be compared with other data from the same region, and also with global palaeointensity estimates. the marine sediment data are quite similar to Australian intensity data from lake sediments and archaeomagnetic sources, but as might be expected exhibit some obvious differences from the global record.     

Sediment deposition in the flood plain of Stemple Creek Watershed, northern California

Over the past 150 years, major land use changes have occurred in the Stemple Creek Watershed in northern California that have caused erosion to move soils from the upland to the flood plain, stream channels, and the bay. The purpose of this study is to document the recent (1954 to present) sediment deposition patterns in the flood plain area adjacent to Stemple Creek using the ¹³⁷Cesium technique. Sediment deposition ranged from 0.26 to 1.84 cm year⁻¹ for the period from 1964 to 2002 with an average of 0.85±0.41 cm year⁻¹. Sediment deposition rates were higher for the 1954 to 1964 period with a range of 0.31–3.50 cm year⁻¹ and an average of 1.29±1.04 cm year⁻¹. These data indicate that sediment deposition in the flood plain has decreased since the middle 1950s, probably related to reduction in row crop agriculture and an increase in pasturelands. This study shows that the flood plains in the Stemple Creek Watershed are a significant sink for the soils being eroded from the upland area. Given the significance of the flood plain for trapping eroded materials before they reach the stream channels or the bay, efforts need to be made to manage these flood plain areas to insure that they do not change and become a source rather than a sink for eroded materials as improved management practices on the upland areas reduce sediment input to the flood plain.     

Mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradation

The mass-front velocities of granular flows results from the joint action of particle size gradations and the underlying surfaces.However,because of the complexity of friction during flow movement,details such as the slope-toe impedance effects and momentum-transfer mechanisms have not been completely explained by theoretical analyses,numerical simulations,or field investigations.To study the mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradations we conducted model experiments that recorded the motion of rapid and long-runout rockslides or avalanches.Flume tests were conducted using slope angles of 25°,35°,45°,and 55° and three particle size gradations.The resulting mass-front motions consisted of three stages:acceleration,velocity maintenance,and deceleration.The existing methods of velocity prediction could not explain the slowing effect of the slope toe or the momentum-transfer steady velocity stage.When the slope angle increased from 25° to 55°,the mass-front velocities dropped significantly to between 44.4% and59.6% of the peak velocities and energy lossesincreased from 69.1% to 83.7% of the initial,respectively.The velocity maintenance stages occurred after the slope-toe and mass-front velocity fluctuations.During this stage,travel distances increased as the angles increased,but the average velocity was greatest at 45°.At a slope angle of 45°,as the median particle size increased,energy loss around the slope toe decreased,the efficiency of momentum transfer increased,and the distance of the velocity maintenance stage increased.We presented an improved average velocity formula for granular flow and a geometrical model of the energy along the flow line.     

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.     

An Analytical Model For Threshold Crossing Rates Of Concentration Fluctuations In Dispersing Plumes

A simple analytical model is developed for the meanupcrossing rate of plume concentration fluctuations assuming that thisprocess can be well approximated by a lognormal process. The resultingexpression requires only the specification of the in-plume fluctuationintensity and in-plume Taylor micro-time scale and, hence, does notexplicitly involve the joint probability density function of theconcentration and its derivative. The analytical model provides agood fit to some field measurements of the mean upcrossing rate ina dispersing plume.     

Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.     

Fire Severity,Water Repellency Characteristics and Hydrogeomorphological Changes Following the Christmas 2001 Sydney Forest Fires

Soil water repellency can enhance overland flow and erosion and may be altered by fire. The Christmas 2001 bushfires near Sydney allowed investigation of the relationship between fire severity, water repellency and hydrogeomorphological changes. For two sub-catchments with differences in fire severities in Nattai National Park, south-west of Sydney, this paper considers: (1) the links between fire severity based on SPOT image analysis and ground observation of fire severity and repellency; (2) the textural and organic/minerogenic characteristics of eroded sediment; and (3) erodibility, erosion and deposition of soils in both catchments. Ground surveys show that image analysis reflects well the degree of vegetation consumption by fire, but cannot adequately predict the degree of ground litter consumption, associated soil heating and repellency effects. Fire had varying effects on repellency, leaving it unchanged, destroying it or enhancing it, depending on the soil temperature reached. The main post-fire hydrogeomorphological changes have been widespread erosion and colluvial and alluvial deposition of topsoil in foot-slope locations and river systems, but only localised redistribution of the highly erodible, repellent sandy subsurface layer. The fire did not trigger major geomorphological change in the study area, but fires probably cause important topsoil and nutrient depletion and may also affect water quality.