An Attempt to Predict the Failure Time of Abandoned Mine Pillars

Summary  Left in place pillars of abandoned mines are subject to weathering (e.g action of water, bacteria) that degrades their mechanical strength and eventually leads to collapse. A simple weathering model is proposed, that is governed by two parameters: the rate of progression of weathered front and the rate of degradation of the compressive strength with time. Both plane strain and axisymmetric analyses are performed and closed form solutions of the variation with time of the bearing capacity of the pillar are given. Experimental data of the tests conducted on gypsum and anhydrite specimens attacked by water are presented. It is shown that in order to fit the experimental data a third parameter must be introduced. New closed form solutions are given and the data are used for estimating the time to failure of abandoned gypsum mines in Northern Italy. Authors’ address: Dr. Riccardo Castellanza, Research Assistant, Department of Structural Engineering, Milan University of Technology (Politecnico), Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, Italy     

Growing up green on serpentine soils: Biogeochemistry of serpentine vegetation in the Central Coast Range of California

Serpentine soils derived from the weathering of ultramafic rocks and their metamorphic derivatives (serpentinites) are chemically prohibitive for vegetative growth. Evaluating how serpentine vegetation is able to persist under these chemical conditions is difficult to ascertain due to the numerous factors (climate, relief, time, water availability, etc.) controlling and affecting plant growth. Here, the uptake, incorporation, and distribution of a wide variety of elements into the biomass of serpentine vegetation has been investigated relative to vegetation growing on an adjacent chert-derived soil. Soil pH, electrical conductivity, organic C, total N, soil extractable elements, total soil elemental compositions and plant digestions in conjunction with spider diagrams are utilized to determine the chemical relationships of these soil and plant systems. Plant available Mg and Ca in serpentine soils exceed values assessed in chert soils. Magnesium is nearly 3 times more abundant than Ca in the serpentine soils; however, the serpentine soils are not Ca deficient with Ca concentrations as high as 2235 mg kg⁻¹. Calcium to Mg ratios (Ca:Mg) in both serpentine and chert vegetation are greater than one in both below and above ground tissues. Soil and plant chemistry analyses support that Ca is not a limiting factor for plant growth and that serpentine vegetation is actively moderating Mg uptake as well as tolerating elevated concentrations of bioavailable Mg. Additionally, results demonstrate that serpentine vegetation suppresses the uptake of Fe, Cr, Ni, Mn and Co into its biomass. The suppressed uptake of these metals mainly occurs in the plants’ roots as evident by the comparatively lower metal concentrations present in above ground tissues (twigs, leaves and shoots). This research supports earlier studies that have suggested that ion uptake discrimination and ion suppression in the roots are major mechanisms for serpentine vegetation to tolerate the chemistry of serpentine soils.     

Paleogeographic regionalization of Triassic seas based on conodontophorids

Geographic differentiation of conodontophorids between northern and southern latitudes commenced in the Triassic since the early Induan. Cosmopolitan long-lived genera of predominantly smooth morphotypes without sculpturing were characteristic of high-latitude basins of the Panboreal Superrealm. Since the early Olenekian until the Carnian inclusive, this superrealm consisted of the Siberian Realm that extended over Northeast Asia and the Canada-Svalbard Realm that included the Svalbard Archipelago and northern regions of Canada. Throughout the Triassic period, conodontophorids characteristic of the Tethys-Panthalassa Superrealm spanning the Tethys and low-latitude zones of the Pacific were highly endemic, very diverse in taxonomic aspect, having well-developed sculpturing and tempos of morphological transformations. Distinctions between the Early-Middle Triassic conodontophorids from northern and southern zones were not as great as afterward, and their impoverished assemblages from southern Tethyan basins were close in some respects to the Boreal ones. Their habitat basins of that time can be grouped into the Mediterranean-Pacific and India-Pakistan realms. Hence, the extent of geographic differentiation of conodontophorids was not constant and gradually grew, as their taxonomic diversity was reducing in northern basins but relatively increasing in southern ones. The Panboreal e Tethys-Panthalassa superrealms of conodontophorids, which are most clearly recognizable, are close to first-rank paleobiochores (superrealms) established earlier for ammonoids and bivalve mollusks. Main factor that controlled geographic differentiation of Triassic conodontophorids was climatic zoning. Initially lower diversity of southern Tethyan assemblages points probably to relatively cooler water regime in the peri-Gondwanan part of the Tethys. The established patterns in geographic distribution of conodontophorids characterize most likely the real trend of their differentiation and evolution, i.e., the distribution area contraction prior to complete extinction at the end of the Triassic     

The hydrochemistry of a semi-arid pan basin case study: Sua Pan,Makgadikgadi, Botswana

This study presents results on the fluid and salt chemistry for the Makgadikgadi, a substantial continental basin in the semi-arid Kalahari. The aims of the study are to improve understanding of the hydrology of such a system and to identify the sources of the solutes and the controls on their cycling within pans. Sampling took place against the backdrop of unusually severe flooding as well as significant anthropogenic extraction of subsurface brines. This paper examines in particular the relationship between the chemistry of soil leachates, fresh stream water, salty lake water, surface salts and subsurface brines at Sua Pan, Botswana with the aim of improving the understanding of the system’s hydrology. Occasionally during the short wet season (December–March) surface water enters the saline environment and precipitates mostly calcite and halite, as well as dolomite and traces of other salts associated with the desiccation of the lake. The hypersaline subsurface brine (up to TDS 190,000 mg/L) is homogenous with minor variations due to pumping by BotAsh mine (Botswana Ash (Pty) Ltd.), which extracts 2400 m³ of brine/h from a depth of 38 m. Notable is the decrease in TDS as the pumping rate increases which may be indicative of subsurface recharge by less saline water. Isotope chemistry for Sr (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr average 0.722087) and S (δ³⁴S average 34.35) suggests subsurface brines have been subject to a lithological contribution of undetermined origin. Recharge of the subsurface brine from surface water including the Nata River appears to be negligible.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.     

Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills,Central Chile

Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of the Chilean capital city of Santiago. There, the risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the range into the city increases with time due to the city growth. A multivariate statistical study based on the logistic regression method is presented. The model provides equations that allow the computation of combined meteorological triggering factors associated with a probability of rain-induced flow occurrence. Daily rainfall, accumulated rainfall and the snowfall level, traditionally considered as the relevant factors, are analysed for a 25-year period. The results show a strong relevance of the rainfall on the day of the flow event over the other factors. However, the relatively low probabilities returned for some real flow events suggest that the model does not capture all the significant variables and the problem is more complex than as it has been traditionally assumed, and further investigations are needed to develop predictive models of flow triggering.     

Room-temperature equation of state of Li<Subscript>2</Subscript>VOSiO<Subscript>4</Subscript> up to 8.5 GPa

High-pressure single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements of lattice parameters of the compound Li₂VOSiO₄, which crystallises with a natisite-type structure, has been carried out to a pressure of 8.54(5) GPa at room temperature. Unit-cell volume data were fitted with a second-order Birch-Murnaghan EoS (BM-EoS), simultaneously refining V ₀ and K ₀ using the data weighted by the uncertainties in V. The bulk modulus is K ₀ = 99(1) GPa, with K′ fixed to 4. Refinements of third order equations-of-state yielded values of K′ that did not differ significantly from 4. The compressibility of the unit-cell is strongly anisotropic with the c axis (K ₀(c) = 49.7 ± 0.5 GPa) approximately four times more compressible than the a axis (K ₀(a) = 195 ± 3 GPa).