The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Assessment of predictions of the response of the Hualien containment model during forced vibration tests

Blind predictions for the response of the 1/4-scale reinforced concrete Hualien (Taiwan) containment model during forced vibration tests are compared with the observed data. The predictions obtained by the CLASSI approach reflect the experimental conditions prior to and after backfill of the soil surrounding the embedded foundation. The experimental data show a strong and unexpected coupling between the response in the NS and EW directions which is not present in the results for the axisymmetric theoretical models. Also, significant differences can be seen between the experimental responses in the two orthogonal horizontal directions which minimize cross-axis coupling. Although these differences are not accounted for in the theoretical models, the discrepancies between predictions and observations are within the uncertainty of the structural and geotechnical data. The obtained differences between predictions and observations give an excellent measure of the prediction error that can be expected in this type of analysis from uncertainty in the data. A detailed assessment of the initial structural and geotechnical data based on extensive comparisons with the results of previous identification studies is also presented. Finally, comparisons between the observed response and calculations based on revised models for the structure and the soil show that current methods of analysis can account accurately for the observed response.     

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.     

Non-linear channel–shoal dynamics in long tidal embayments

The dynamics of finite-amplitude bed forms in a tidal channel is studied with the use of an idealized morphodynamic model. The latter is based on depth-averaged equations for the tidal flow over a sandy bottom. The model considers phenomena on spatial scales of the order of the tidal excursion length. Transport of sediment mainly takes place as suspended load. The reference state of this model is characterized by a spatially uniform M₂ tidal current over a fixed horizontal bed. The temporal evolution of deviations from this reference state is governed by amplitude equations: these are a set of non-linear equations that describe the temporal evolution of bed forms. These equations are used to obtain new morphodynamic equilibria which may be either static or time-periodic. Several of these bottom profiles show strong similarity with the tidal bars that are observed in natural estuaries. The dependence of the equilibrium solutions on the value of bottom friction and channel width is investigated systematically. For narrow channels (width small compared to the tidal excursion length) stable static equilibria exist if bottom friction is slightly larger than r_cr. For channel widths more comparable to the tidal excursion length, multiple stable steady states may exist for bottom friction parameter values below r_cr. Regardless of channel width, stable time-periodic equilibria seem to emerge as the bottom friction is increased.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

A model for grain-size sorting over tidal sand ridges

A model was developed and analyzed to quantify the effect of graded sediment on the formation of tidal sand ridges. Field data reveal coarse (fine) sediment at the crests (in the troughs), but often phase shifts between the mean grain-size distribution and the bottom topography occur. Following earlier work, this study is based on a linear stability analysis of a basic state with respect to small bottom perturbations. The basic state describes an alongshore tidal current on a coastal shelf. Sediment is transported as bed load and dynamic hiding effects are accounted for. A one-layer model for the bed evolution is used and two grain size classes (fine and coarse sand) are considered. Results indicate an increase in growth and migration rates of tidal sand ridges for a bimodal mixture, whilst the wavelength of the ridges remains unchanged. A symmetrical externally forced tidal current results in a grain-size distribution which is in phase with the ridges. Incorporation of an additional external M₄ tidal constituent or a steady current results in a phase shift between the grain-size distribution and ridge topography. These results show a general agreement with observations. The physical mechanism responsible for the observed grain-size distribution over the ridges is also discussed.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.