昆仑山口西MＳ＝8．1级地震的形变应变场研究

根据昆仑山口西8．1级地震前后GPS测点的位移速率，用弹性模型公式计算了地壳应变参数．应变参量的变化表明，震前在地震区附近以压应变为主，应变速率较大．位移速率矢量显示出震前的震中地区相对周围为活动性较弱的“稳定”地区．地壳的形变和应变揭示出孕震体在挤压状态下积累了较高的应变势能．8．1级地震的同时期由于地壳释放了巨大的应变能而应变速率变化显著．计算结果表明，地震所产生的应变达到4．5×10-6以上．发震断裂带的平均左旋走滑量是3．31m（89°E～96°E）．     

任意圆弧形凸起地形中隧洞对入射平面SH波的影响

借助辅助函数的思想， 采用波函数展开法给出了圆弧形凸起地形中隧洞对入射平面SH波影响问题的一个解析解．数值结果表明，凸起地形中隧洞的存在以及隧洞大小，对凸起地形表面运动，以及凸起地形中的隧洞的动应力集中均具有显著影响．      

A Simple Parameterisation for Flux Footprint Predictions

Flux footprint functions estimate the location and relative importance of passive scalar sources influencing flux measurements at a given receptor height. These footprint estimates strongly vary in size, depending on receptor height, atmospheric stability, and surface roughness. Reliable footprint calculations from, e.g., Lagrangian stochastic models or large-eddy simulations are computationally expensive and cannot readily be computed for long-term observational programs. To facilitate more accessible footprint estimates, a scaling procedure is introduced for flux footprint functions over a range of stratifications from convective to stable, and receptor heights ranging from near the surface to the middle of the boundary layer. It is shown that, when applying this scaling procedure, footprint estimates collapse to an ensemble of similar curves. A simple parameterisation for the scaled footprint estimates is presented. This parameterisation accounts for the influence of the roughness length on the footprint and allows for a quick but precise algebraic footprint estimation.     

Estimated N2O and CO2 Emissions as Influenced by Agricultural Practices in Canada

The Denitrification-Decompostion (DNDC) model was used to estimate the impact of change in management practices on N₂O emissions in seven major soil regions in Canada, for the period 1970 to 2029. Conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland would result in the greatest reduction in N₂O emissions, particularly in eastern Canada wherethe model estimated about 60% less N₂O emissions for thisconversion. About 33% less N₂O emissions were predicted for a changefrom conventional tillage to no-tillage in western Canada, however, a slight increase in N₂O emissions was predicted for eastern Canada. GreaterN₂O emissions in eastern Canada associated with the adoption of no-tillage were attributed to higher soil moisture causing denitrification, whereas the lower emissions in western Canada were attributed to less decomposition of soil organic matter in no-till versus conventional tilled soil. Elimination of summer fallow in a crop rotation resulted in a 9% decrease in N₂O emissions, with substantial emissions occurringduring the wetter fallow years when N had accumulated. Increasing N-fertilizer application rates by 50% increased average emissions by 32%,while a 50% decrease of N-fertilizer application decreased emissions by16%. In general, a small increase in N₂O emissions was predicted when N-fertilizer was applied in the fall rather than in the spring. Previous research on CO₂ emissions with the CENTURY model (Smith et al.,2001) allowed the quantification of the combined change in N₂O andCO₂ emissions in CO₂ equivalents for a wide range of managementpractices in the seven major soil regions in Canada. The management practices that have the greatest potential to reduce the combined N₂O andCO₂ emissions are conversion from conventional tillage to permanent grassland, reduced tillage, and reduction of summer fallow. The estimated net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction when changing from cultivated land to permanent grassland ranged from 0.97 (Brown Chernozem) to 4.24 MgCO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (BlackChernozem) for the seven soil regions examined. When changing from conventional tillage to no-tillage the net GHG emission reduction ranged from 0.33 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark GrayLuvisol). Elimination of fallow in the crop rotation lead to an estimated net GHG emission reduction of 0.43 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv.ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark Brown Chernozem). The addition of 50% more or 50% less N-fertilizer both resulted in slight increases in combined CO₂ and N₂O emissions. There was a tradeoff in GHG flux with greaterN₂O emissions and a comparable increase in carbon storage when 50% more N-fertilizer was added. The results from this work indicate that conversion of cultivated land to grassland, the conversion from conventional tillage to no-tillage, and the reduction of summerallow in crop rotations could substantially increase C sequestration and decrease net GHG emissions. Based on these results a simple scaling-up scenario to derive the possible impacts on Canada's Kyoto commitment has been calculated.     

The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

主键约束在数字化前兆数据服务软件中的关键运用

数字化前兆数据库是一个分布式网络数据库SQLServer,数据库的建成运用为预报人员的日常数据分析提供了一个准确的、完整的资源平台。为考虑数据库设计完整性规则 ,本文着重讲述建立两套前兆数据库的过程中 ,主键约束在数字化前兆数据服务软件EPDS的建库及入库中起的重要作用。     

谈现代企业制度下的内部审计

现代企业必须建立严密的、完善的控制系统，严格的、科学的管理制度，有效的、畅通的运行机制，才能保证经营目标的实现。内部审计可以及时发现经营管理中的薄弱环节和存在的漏洞，及时、准确提醒企业决策者采取措施加以改进，有利于企业不断发展壮大。     

组合桩在加固厚层填土中的应用

本工程场地为欠固结厚层填土现状，为保证承台底不脱空，采用粉喷桩加固承台底欠固结填土，并在粉喷桩内施工静压桩的技术对策，这样既加固了填土，又提高了静压桩单桩承载力，获得了良好的效果。     

建筑密集区高倾角三维地震勘探效果

高倾角地区(地层倾角40～70°)一直是三维地震勘探的难题,特别是在地表建筑物极复杂区(占工区的95%)实施三维地震勘探,显得难度更大。本文从观测系统设计、炮点、检波器的特殊布设及特观设计上,论证了其可行性。对高倾角且建筑物密集区的三维地震勘探进行了探索,并取得了可喜的成果。