Estimating the uncertainty in simulating the impacts of small farm dams on streamflow regimes in South Africa

Abstract

Small dams represent an important local-scale resource designed to increase water supply reliability in many parts of the world where hydrological variability is high. There is evidence that the number of farm dams has increased substantially over the last few decades. These developments can have a substantial impact on downstream flow volumes and patterns, water use and ecological functioning. The study reports on the application of a hydrological modelling approach to investigate the uncertainty associated with simulating the impacts of farm dams in several South African catchments. The focus of the study is on sensitivity analysis and the limitations of the data that would be typically available for water resources assessments. The uncertainty mainly arises from the methods and information that are available to estimate the dam properties and the water use from the dams. The impacts are not only related to the number and size of dams, but also the extent to which they are used for water supply as well as the nature of the climate and the natural hydrological regimes. The biggest source of uncertainty in South Africa appears to be associated with a lack of reliable information on volumes and patterns of water abstraction from the dams.

Citation Hughes, D. A. & Mantel, S. K. (2010) Estimating the uncertainty in simulating the impacts of small farm dams on streamflow regimes in South Africa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 578–592.     

Planetary-Scale Wave Structures of the Earth’s Atmosphere Revealed from the COSMIC Observations

GPS radio occultation（GPS RO） method,an active satellite-to-satellite remote sensing technique,is capable of producing accurate,all-weather,round the clock,global refractive index,density,pressure,and temperature profiles of the troposphere and stratosphere.This study presents planetary-scale equatorially trapped Kelvin waves in temperature profiles retrieved using COSMIC（Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere,and Climate） satellites during 2006-2009 and their interactions with background atmospheric conditions.It is found that the Kelvin waves are not only associated with wave periods of higher than 10 days（slow Kelvin waves） with higher zonal wave numbers（either 1 or 2）,but also possessing downward phase progression,giving evidence that the source regions of them are located at lower altitudes.A thorough verification of outgoing longwave radiation（OLR） reveals that deep convection activity has developed regularly over the Indonesian region,suggesting that the Kelvin waves are driven by the convective activity.The derived Kelvin waves show enhanced（diminished） tendencies during westward（eastward） phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation（QBO） in zonal winds,implying a mutual relation between both of them.The El Nino and Southern Oscillation（ENSO） below 18 km and the QBO features between 18 and 27km in temperature profiles are observed during May 2006-May 2010 with the help of an adaptive data analysis technique known as Hilbert Huang Transform（HHT）.Further,temperature anomalies computed using COSMIC retrieved temperatures are critically evaluated during different phases of ENSO,which has revealed interesting results and are discussed in light of available literature.     

Absolute spectrophotometry of Neptune: 3390 to 7800 Å

Absolute spectrophotometry of Neptune from 3390 to 7800 Å, with spectral resolution of 10 Å in the interval 3390–6055 and 20 Å in the interval 6055–7800 Å, is reported. The results are compared with filter photometry (Appleby, 1973; Wamsteker, 1973; Savage et al., 1980) and with synthetic spectra computed on the basis of a parameterization proposed by Podolak and Danielson (1977) for aerosol scattering and absorption. A CH₄/H₂ ratio of is derived for the convectively mixed part of Neptune's atmosphere, and constrains optical properties of hypothetical aerosol layers.     

Geochemistry and potential use of groundwater in the Rocca Busambra area (Sicily, Italy)

In the Rocca Busambra area (mid-west Sicily, Italy), from November 1999 to July 2002, 23 water points including wells and springs were sampled and studied for their chemical and isotopic compositions. Two rain gauges were also installed at different altitudes, and rainwater was collected monthly to determine the isotopic composition. The obtained results revealed the Rocca Busambra carbonate complex as being the main recharge area on account of its high permeability value. From a chemical view point, two main groups of water can be distinguished: calcium–magnesium–bicarbonate-type and calcium–magnesium–chloride–sulphate-type waters. The first group reflects the dissolution of the carbonate rocks; the second group probably originates from circulation within flyschoid sediments. Three water wells differ from the other samples due to their relatively high Na and K content, which probably is to be referred to a marked interaction with the “Calcareniti di Corleone” formation, which is rich in glauconite [(K, Na)(Fe³⁺, Al, Mg)₂(Si, Al)₄O₁₀(OH)₂]. In accordance with WHO guidelines for drinking water (2004), almost all the samples collected can be considered drinkable, with the exception of four of them, whose NO₃ ⁻, F⁻ and Na⁺ contents exceed the limits. On the contrary, the sampled groundwater studied is basically suitable for irrigation.     

Retrowedge-related Carboniferous units and coeval magmatism in the northwestern Neuquén province, Argentina

The studied Carboniferous units comprise metasedimentary (Guaraco Norte Formation), pyroclastic (Arroyo del Torreón Formation), and sedimentary (Huaraco Formation) rocks that crop out in the northwestern Neuquén province, Argentina. They form part of the basement of the Neuquén Basin and are mostly coeval with the Late Paleozoic accretionary prism complex of the Coastal Cordillera, south-central Chile. U–Pb SHRIMP dating of detrital zircon yielded a maximum depositional age of 374?Ma (Upper Devonian) for the Guaraco Norte Formation and 389?Ma for the Arroyo del Torreón Formation. Detrital magmatic zircon from the Guaraco Norte Formation are grouped into two main populations of Devonian and Ordovician (Famatinian) ages. In the Arroyo del Torreón Formation, zircon populations are also of Devonian and Ordovician (Famatinian), as well as of Late Neoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic ages. In both units, there is a conspicuous population of Devonian magmatic zircon grains (from 406?±?4?Ma to 369?±?5?Ma), indicative of active magmatism at that time range. The ε_Hf values of this population range between ?2.84 and ?0.7, and the TDM-(Hf) are mostly Mesoproterozoic, suggesting that the primary sources of the Devonian magmatism contained small amounts of Mesoproterozoic recycled crustal components. The chemical composition of the Guaraco Norte Formation corresponds to recycled, mature polycyclic sediment of mature continental provenance, pointing to a passive margin with minor inputs from continental margin magmatic rocks. The chemical signature of the Huaraco Formation indicates that a magmatic arc was the main provenance for sediments of this unit, which is consistent with the occurrence of tuff—mostly in the Arroyo del Torreón Formation and very scarcely in the Huaraco Formation—with a volcanic-arc signature, jointly indicating the occurrence of a Carboniferous active arc magmatism during the deposition of the two units. The Guaraco Norte Formation is interpreted to represent passive margin deposits of mostly Lower Carboniferous age (younger than 374?Ma and older than 326?Ma) that precede the onset of the accretionary prism in Chile and extend into the earliest stage of the accretion, in a retrowedge position. The Arroyo del Torreón and Huaraco formations are considered to be retrowedge basin deposits to the early frontal accretionary prism (Eastern Series) of Chile. The presence of volcanism with arc signature in the units provides evidence of a Mississippian magmatic arc that can be correlated with limited exposures of the same age in the Frontal Cordillera (Argentina). The arc would have migrated to the West (Coastal Batholith) during Pennsylvanian–Permian times (coevally with the later basal accretionary prism/Western Series). The source of a conspicuous population of Devonian detrital zircon interpreted to be of magmatic origin in the studied units is discussed in various possible geotectonic scenarios, the preferred model being a magmatic arc developed in the Chilenia block, related to a west-dipping subduction beneath Chilenia before and shortly after its collision against Cuyania/Gondwana, at around 390?Ma and not linked to the independent, Devonian–Mississippian arc, developed to the south, in Patagonia.     

Luminescence dating of a gigantic palaeolandslide in the Gobi-Altay mountains, Mongolia

In an attempt to date a palaeolandslide that took place along the Baga Bogd Massif, in Mongolia, the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) method has been applied to lacustrine silty sediments directly overlying the landslide mass. The IRSL age estimates obtained on alkali feldspar grains (>40 μm) and polymineral fine grains (4–11 μm) provide a minimum age for the landslide event. The IRSL ages on alkali feldspars corrected for long-term fading using the protocol of Mejdahl (1988, 1989) suggest that the palaeolandslide occurred at the beginning of the Last Interglacial. These are in good agreement with the ¹⁰Be cosmogenic dates obtained on faulted and abandoned alluvial fans in the Gobi-Altay mountains. This study demonstrates for the first time that the IRSL dating method can successfully be applied for establishing landslide chronologies.     

Rayleigh-Taylor instability of two viscous superposed rotating and conducting fluids

Classical R-M and synthetic W-D analysis of V758 Centauri are presented. Two solutions (semi-detached and contact) were found from differential corrections approach. The semi-detached model is physically acceptable since the system is thermally decoupled. The solution for this case and the photometric data are consistent with a B9 primary and A9 secondary components having parameters close to Main-Sequence values. It is suggested that V758 Centauri is a B-type W UMa system at the brokencontact phase predicted by the Thermal Relaxation Oscillations theory.     

Regional Variations in the Mineralogy of Metasomatic Assemblages in Mantle Xenoliths from the West Eifel Volcanic Field, Germany

Xenoliths record two distinct events in the mantle below theQuarternary West Eifel Volcanic Field, Germany. The first, duringthe Hercynian Orogeny, led to widespread formation of secondary,Ti-poor amphibole, clinopyroxene and phlogopite. The signatureof the second event, related to Quaternary volcanism, variesacross the field. At Dreiser Weiher and Meerfelder Maar, thisevent is characterized by amphibole–phlogopite–clinopyroxeneveins, hosted in lherzolite and harzburgite xenoliths broughtto the surface by sodic olivine nephelinite–basanite suitelavas. These veins formed from crystallization of sodic magmathat flowed along fractures in the mantle. At Rockeskyller Kopf,Gees and Baarley, the Quaternary event is characterized by wehrlitexenoliths, many of which have phlogopite–clinopyroxeneveins, that were transported by potassic foid suite lavas. Wehrliteformed by reaction of lherzolite–harzburgite, with a largevolume of potassic magma that flowed along grain boundariesrather than in fractures. During reaction, orthopyroxene wasconsumed and secondary clinopyroxene, olivine and phlogopiteprecipitated. Veins formed in wehrlites only during periodicover-pressure events. The composition of the magmas parentalto the veins is similar to the lavas that carried the xenolithsto surface, indicating that the source of foid and olivine nephelinite–basanitesuite magma is domainal, as was the flow regime and magma flux. KEY WORDS: Eifel; mantle xenoliths; metasomatism; trace elements     

Constraints on spatial variability in soft-sediment communities affected by contamination from an Antarctic waste disposal site

A small-scale (<500 m length) transect-based survey was conducted in December 1998 to examine the spatial distribution of soft-sediment communities and of concentrations of heavy metals and hydrocarbons in sediments in Brown Bay, adjacent to an abandoned waste dump, at Casey Station, Antarctica. Samples were taken along three transects at increasing distances (nine stations) from the shore-line waste dump. A gradient of contamination was detected, but concentrations of contaminants were very variable with "hotspots" or high levels of contaminants at some stations. Multivariate analysis revealed that the distribution of soft-sediment communities was distinctly different between the inner, middle and outer stations. Abundances of most taxa were very variable with few patterns apparent, but some fauna displayed an abundance gradient from the inner to the outer part of the bay. Many taxa had maximum abundances at outer stations and minimum at inner stations. Multivariate correlations between environmental variables and soft-sediment communities indicated that combinations of some metals (Cd, Cu, Sn, Pb) and grain size (mainly finer fractions, fine sands and coarse silts) were the variables that best "matched" the community patterns within Brown Bay. This study indicated that there were significant correlations between the presence of contaminants and the distribution and composition of soft-sediment communities over very small spatial scales.     

Solar flare injection and propagation of low-energy protons and electrons in the event of 7–9 July, 1966

Simultaneous observations of the 7–9 July 1966 solar particle event by energetic particle detectors on three satellites, IMP-III, OGO-III and Explorer 33 are utilized to show that large spatial gradients are present in the fluxes of 0.5–20 meV protons and 45 keV electrons. The event is divided into three parts: the ordinary diffusive component, the halo, and the core. The core corotates with the interplanetary field, and therefore it and the surrounding halo are interpreted as spatial features which are connected by the interplanetary magnetic field lines to the vicinity of the flare region. Upper limits to the interplanetary transverse diffusion coefficient for 4–20 meV protons at 1 AU are derived from the width of the halo. These are at least two orders of magnitude less than the parallel diffusion coefficient for the same energy particles.It is argued that the observed flux variations cannot be explained by an impulsive point source injection for any physically reasonable diffusion model. Instead, since the interplanetary transverse-diffusion coefficient is small for these low-energy particles, the observed spatial features are interpreted as the projection to 1 AU by the interplanetary field lines of an extensive injection profile at the sun. The geometry of the injection mechanism is discussed and it is suggested that some temporary storage of the flare particles occurs near the sun.Now at NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., U.S.A.