Comparisons of homogeneously reprocessed GPS and VLBI long time-series of troposphere zenith delays and gradients

Troposphere parameters estimated from space-geodetic techniques, like the Global Positioning System (GPS) or Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), can be used to monitor the atmospheric water vapor content. Although the troposphere can only be monitored at discrete locations, the distribution of the instruments, at least the GPS antennas, can be assumed to be quasi-global. Critical in the data analysis are systematic effects within each single technique that significantly degrade the accuracy and especially the long-term stability of the zenith delay determination. In this paper, consistent time-series of troposphere zenith delays and gradients from homogeneously reprocessed GPS and VLBI solutions are compared for a time period of 11 years. The homogeneity of these completely reprocessed time-series is essential to avoid misinterpretations due to individual model changes. Co-located sites are used to investigate systematic effects and the long-term behavior of the two space-geodetic techniques. Both techniques show common signals in the troposphere parameters at a very high level of precision. The biases between the troposphere zenith delays are at the level of a few millimeters. On the other hand, long-term trends significantly differ for the two techniques, preventing climatological interpretations at present. Tests assume these differences to be due to mathematical artifacts such as different sampling rates and unmodeled semi-annual signals with varying amplitudes.     

The Impact of Sediment and Carbon Fluxes on the Biogeochemistry of Methane and Sulfur in Littoral Baltic Sea Sediments (Himmerfjärden, Sweden)

Three sediment stations in Himmerfjärden estuary (Baltic Sea, Sweden) were sampled in May 2009 and June 2010 to test how low salinity (5–7 ‰), high primary productivity partially induced by nutrient input from an upstream waste water treatment plant, and high overall sedimentation rates impact the sedimentary cycling of methane and sulfur. Rates of sediment accumulation determined using ²¹⁰Pb_excess and ¹³⁷Cs were very high (0.65–0.95 cm?year^?1), as were the corresponding rates of organic matter accumulation (8.9–9.5 mol C?m^?2?year^?1) at all three sites. Dissolved sulfate penetrated <20 cm below the sediment surface. Although measured rates of bicarbonate methanogenesis integrated over 1 m depth were low (0.96–1.09 mol?m^?2?year^?1), methane concentrations increased to >2 mmol?L^?1 below the sulfate–methane transition. A steep gradient of methane through the entire sulfate zone led to upward (diffusive and bio-irrigative) fluxes of 0.32 to 0.78 mol?m^?2?year^?1 methane to the sediment–water interface. Areal rates of sulfate reduction (1.46–1.92 mol?m^?2?year^?1) integrated over the upper 0–14 cm of sediment appeared to be limited by the restricted diffusive supply of sulfate, low bio-irrigation (α?=?2.8–3.1 year^?1), and limited residence time of the sedimentary organic carbon in the sulfate zone. A large fraction of reduced sulfur as pyrite and organic-bound sulfur was buried and thus escaped reoxidation in the surface sediment. The presence of ferrous iron in the pore water (with concentrations up to 110 μM) suggests that iron reduction plays an important role in surface sediments, as well as in sediment layers deep below the sulfate–methane transition. We conclude that high rates of sediment accumulation and shallow sulfate penetration are the master variables for biogeochemistry of methane and sulfur cycling; in particular, they may significantly allow for release of methane into the water column in the Himmerfjärden estuary.     

Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world

Our study focuses on uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources, including land use and land-use change activities. We aim to understand the relevance of diagnostic (retrospective) and prognostic (prospective) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature setting that seeks to constrain global warming and to link uncertainty consistently across temporal scales. We discuss diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty in a systems setting that allows any country to understand its national and near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context. Cumulative emissions are not only constrained and globally binding but exhibit quantitative uncertainty; and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target will be achieved is also uncertain. To facilitate discussions, we focus on two countries, the USA and China. While our study addresses whether or not future increase in global temperature can be kept below 2, 3, or 4 °C targets, its primary aim is to use those targets to demonstrate the relevance of both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty. We show how to combine diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty to take more educated (precautionary) decisions for reducing emissions toward an agreed temperature target; and how to perceive combined diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty-related risk. Diagnostic uncertainty is the uncertainty contained in inventoried emission estimates and relates to the risk that true GHG emissions are greater than inventoried emission estimates reported in a specified year; prognostic uncertainty refers to cumulative emissions between a start year and a future target year, and relates to the risk that an agreed temperature target is exceeded.     

Nephelines from the Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex (Southern Italy): crystal-chemical,structural and genetic investigations

Sixteen nephelines from different geological occurrences were sampled at the type-locality, the Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex (southern Italy), and investigated for their chemistry and crystal structure obtained by both single-crystal and powder X-ray diffraction. Nepheline-bearing samples are metamorphic or from magmatic ejecta and pumice deposits. The lower K contents characterize the pumice- and some metamorphic-derived nephelines, whereas the higher ones are found in some samples from magmatic nodules. The amount of the anorthite molecule, quite low on average, can be more variable in the metamorphic nephelines. The crystal-structure investigations on Somma-Vesuvius samples compare well with previous studies of natural nephelines. All 16 nepheline samples adopt space group P6₃. The observed lattice parameters vary between 9.9768–9.9946 Å (for a) and 8.3614–8.3777 Å (for c), respectively. Furthermore, chemical analysis revealed that all specimens exhibit an excess of Si relative the ideal Si:Al ratio of 1:1. The analysis of the T-O distances in our samples clearly indicates a distinct ordering process of aluminium and silicon on the tetrahedral sites which is an agreement with Loewenstein’s rule. A linear correlation between the distance of symmetry equivalent split atoms O(1)-O(1)’ and the T(1)-O(1)-T(2) tilt angle was observed. The average <B-O> (B = Na) distances of all crystals are very similar which is consistent with the outcome of the site population refinement indicating full occupancy with sodium. Oriented precession-type sections of reciprocal space indicated the presence of at least the most intense family of satellite peaks, demonstrating that this group of satellite reflections can occur not only in nephelines from pegmatites and ijolites but also in rocks from completely different petrological settings.     

Detecting thermal anomalies within the Molasse Basin, southern Germany

The groundwater flow regime at great depth within the Molasse Basin (SW Germany) was studied. Data relevant for a flow model at 600–1,600 m depth are sparse in the western part of the basin. However, temperature measurements are available covering much of the area at a wide range of depths. Therefore, a thermal 3D steady-state model was set up with the aim of comparing modeled with observed subsurface temperatures. Stratigraphic information from many boreholes was also available, but only a few values of rock thermal conductivity and heat-production rate could be obtained. Some strong thermal residual anomalies were identified with respect to the purely conductive model, especially along fault zones, and within stratigraphic layers with high hydraulic conductivity. These anomalies can be explained by various advective heat-transport mechanisms, yet most explanations can be eliminated. The most plausible constellation explaining the major positive thermal anomalies of 10 Kelvin and more is a fault zone of E–W strike, intersected by an aquifer with flow parallel to the fault zone. This concept was investigated by using a simplified type model. In spite of some shortcomings, the method presented here can be used to identify temperature anomalies, and to identify possible explanations.     

Comparison of bulk kinetic parameters for asphaltenes from long-time stored and related fresher-produced crude oils

Two investigated long-time stored oils, which were produced in the 1960s, show strong compositional changes compared to fresher oil samples from the same well and production zones. Asphaltenes isolated from stored and fresher-produced oil pairs show highly similar results from open-system pyrolysis. However, asphaltenes from long-time stored oils show higher reactivity compared to those from fresher oils. The study shows that differences exist in kinetic models based on asphaltenes from fresh-produced oil and those based on oil that has undergone long-term storage, and that these differences may impact geological predictions using such models. Factors controlling the chemical differences between stored and fresher asphaltenes are unclear and hard to determine, because of a broad range of factors controlling compositional differences between these oil pairs. The difference in chemical kinetics might be related to chemical storage effects, but different well-site sampling techniques between decades, or even incomplete homogenization of the long-time stored oils in barrels before sampling may also have an impact.     

Regional- and district-level drivers of timber harvesting in European Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the forestry sector in Russia underwent substantial changes: the state forestry sector was decentralized, the timber industry was privatized, and timber use rights were allocated through short- and long-term leases. To date, there has been no quantitative assessment of the drivers of timber harvesting in European Russia following these changes. In this paper we estimate an econometric model of timber harvesting using remote sensing estimations of forest disturbance from 1990–2000 to 2000–2005 as our dependent variable. We aggregate forest disturbance to administrative districts – equivalent to counties in the United States – and test the impact of several biophysical and economic factors on timber harvesting. Additionally, we examine the impact that regions – equivalent to states in the United States and the main level of decentralized governance in Russia – have on timber harvesting by estimating the influence of regional-level effects on forest disturbance in our econometric model. Russian regions diverged considerably in political and economic conditions after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the question is if these variations impacted timber harvesting after controlling for district-level biophysical and economic drivers. We find that the most important drivers of timber harvesting at the district level are road density, the percent of evergreen forest, and the total area of forest. The influence of these variables on timber harvesting changed over time and there was more harvesting closer to urban areas in 2000–2005. Even though district-level variables explain more than 70 percent of the variation in forest disturbance in our econometric model, we find that regional-level effects remain statistically significant. While we cannot identify the exact mechanism through which regional-level effects impact timber harvesting, our results suggest that sub-national differences can have a large and statistically significant impact on land-use outcomes and should be considered in policy design and evaluation.