Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios

Based on a large number of energy-economic and integrated assessment models, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 27 study systematically explores the implications of technology cost and availability for feasibility and macroeconomic costs of energy system transformations toward climate stabilization. At the highest level, the technology strategy articulated in all the scenarios in EMF27 includes three elements: decarbonization of energy supply, increasing the use of low-carbon energy carriers in end-use, and reduction of energy use. The way that the scenarios differ is in the degree to which these different elements of strategy are implemented, the timing of those implementations, and the associated macroeconomic costs. The study also discusses the value of individual technologies for achieving climate stabilization. A robust finding is that the unavailability of carbon capture and storage and limited availability of bioenergy have the largest impact on feasibility and macroeconomic costs for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at low levels, mostly because of their combined ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Constraining options in the electric sector such as nuclear power, wind and solar energy in contrast has a much smaller impact on the cost of mitigation.     

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Urbanization and child growth failure in Sub-Saharan Africa: a geographical analysis

Journal of Geographical Systems - This paper raises a fundamental question about Sub-Saharan Africa: has urbanization there been accompanied by improvements in personal wellbeing? It then proceeds...     

Selection of Less Biased Threshold Angles for SAM Classification Using the Real Value–Area Fractal Technique

The accuracy of classification of the Spectral Angle Mapping (SAM) is warranted by choosing the appropriate threshold angles, which are normally defined by the user. Trial‐and‐error and statistical methods are commonly applied to determine threshold angles. In this paper, we discuss a real value–area (RV–A) technique based on the established concentration–area (C–A) fractal model to determine less biased threshold angles for SAM classification of multispectral images. Short wave infrared (SWIR) bands of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images were used over and around the Sar Cheshmeh porphyry Cu deposit and Seridune porphyry Cu prospect. Reference spectra from the known hydrothermal alteration zones in each study area were chosen for producing respective rule images. Segmentation of each rule image resulted in a RV–A curve. Hydrothermal alteration mapping based on threshold values of each RV–A curve showed that the first break in each curve is practical for selection of optimum threshold angles. The hydrothermal alteration maps of the study areas were evaluated by field and laboratory studies including X–ray diffraction analysis, spectral analysis, and thin section study of rock samples. The accuracy of the SAM classification was evaluated by using an error matrix. Overall accuracies of 80.62% and 75.45% were acquired in the Sar Cheshmeh and Seridune areas, respectively. We also used different threshold angles obtained by some statistical techniques to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed RV–A technique. Threshold angles provided by statistical techniques could not enhance the hydrothermal alteration zones around the known deposits, as good as threshold angles obtained by the RV–A technique. Since no arbitrary parameter is defined by the user in the application of the RV‐A technique, its application prevents introduction of human bias to the selection of optimum threshold angle for SAM classification.     

The “Boscobel Landslip” of October 1st, 1901—the largest historic landslide in Barbados,West Indies

Barbados is a small Caribbean island located on the crest of an accretionary prism about 125 km east of the Lesser Antilles volcanic island arc. The oldest strata, Eocene sandstones and shales, are overlain by Oligocene–Miocene chalks and marls, in turn overlain by Pleistocene reef and lagoonal limestones that cover about 85 % of the island. The Eocene sediments, which crop out in the Scotland District of Barbados, are prone to soil creep and landslides covering tens to hundreds of hectares. The largest historic landslide, the “Boscobel Landslip,” occurred on 01 October 1901. We used nineteenth-century and more modern topographic and geologic maps, air photographs, and various archival and petrophysical data, to supplement reconnaissance of the landslide in the field. We identified about ten million cubic meters of the displaced material of the landslide, as well as the meteorological and geological conditions that contributed to the Boscobel Landslip. Similar landslides would pose a presently unquantified hazard to inhabitation and future development in the Scotland District.     

Transport of Crustacean Larvae Between a Low-Inflow Estuary and Coastal Waters

The effectiveness of larval behavior in regulating transport between well-mixed, low-inflow estuaries and coastal waters in seasonally arid climates is poorly known. We determined the flux of an assemblage of benthic crustacean larvae relative to physical conditions between a shallow estuary and coastal waters on the upwelling coast of northern California (38°18′N, 123°03′W) from 29 to 31 March 2006. We detected larval behaviors that regulate transport in adjacent coastal waters and other estuaries for only two taxa in the low-inflow estuary, but they were apparent for taxa outside the estuary. Vertical mixing in the shallow estuary may have overwhelmed larvae of some species, or salinity fluctuations may have been too slight to cue tidal vertical migrations. Nevertheless, all larval stages of species that complete development in nearshore coastal waters were present in the estuary, because they remained low in the water column reducing seaward advection or they were readily exchanged between the estuary and open coast by tidal flows. Weak tidal flows and gravitational circulation at the head of the estuary reduced seaward transport during development for species that completed development nearshore, whereas larval release during nocturnal ebb tides enhanced seaward transport for species that develop offshore. Thus, nonselective tidal processes dominated larval transport for most species back and forth between the low-inflow estuary and open coastal waters, whereas in adjacent open coastal waters, larval behavior in the presence of wind-induced shear was more important in regulating migrations between adult and larval habitats along this upwelling coast.     

A re-examination of petrogenesis and 40Ar/39Ar systematics in the Chain of Ponds K-feldspar: “diffusion domain” archetype versus polyphase hygrochronology

K-feldspar (Kfs) from the Chain of Ponds Pluton (CPP) is the archetypal reference material, upon which thermochronological modeling of Ar diffusion in discrete “domains” was founded. We re-examine the CPP Kfs using cathodoluminescence and back-scattered electron imaging, transmission electron microscopy, and electron probe microanalysis. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar stepwise heating experiments on different sieve fractions, and on handpicked and unpicked aliquots, are compared. Our results reproduce the staircase-shaped age spectrum and the Arrhenius trajectory of the literature sample, confirming that samples collected from the same locality have an identical Ar isotope record. Even the most pristine-looking Kfs from the CPP contains successive generations of secondary, metasomatic/retrograde mineral replacements that post-date magmatic crystallization. These chemically and chronologically distinct phases are responsible for its staircase-shaped age spectra, which are modified by handpicking. While genuine within-grain diffusion gradients are not ruled out by these data, this study demonstrates that the most important control on staircase-shaped age spectra is the simultaneous presence of heterochemical, diachronous post-magmatic mineral growth. At least five distinct mineral species were identified in the Kfs separate, three of which can be traced to external fluids interacting with the CPP in a chemically open system. Sieve fractions have size-shifted Arrhenius trajectories, negating the existence of the smallest “diffusion domains.” Heterochemical phases also play an important role in producing nonlinear trajectories. In vacuo degassing rates recovered from Arrhenius plots are neither related to true Fick’s Law diffusion nor to the staircase shape of the age spectra. The CPP Kfs used to define the “diffusion domain” model demonstrates the predominance of metasomatic alteration by hydrothermal fluids and recrystallization in establishing the natural Ar distribution among different coexisting phases that gives rise to the staircase-shaped age spectrum. Microbeam imaging of textures is as essential for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar hygrochronology as it is for U–Pb geochronology.     

Field meeting in the Isle of Purbeck,September 2012, to examine the Upper Kimmeridge Clay and the Lulworth district

An account is given of a Geologists’ Association meeting in the Isle of Purbeck held on 28th–30th September 2012 and the stratigraphy and structures of the rocks examined during the weekend are described. Uppermost Jurassic Stage nomenclature and recent changes to stratigraphical nomenclature in the uppermost part of the Kimmeridge Clay Formation are discussed and the conclusion reached that the long-established divisions (Members) of this Formation are both readily recognisable and have nomenclatorial priority. The recent change to the position of Pallasioides-Rotunda zonal boundary ignores the ammonite fauna and is inappropriate. For the Lulworth district the stratigraphy of the uppermost Jurassic (Portlandian) through Lower and Upper Cretaceous formations are described and their associated structures discussed. The coastal evolution of the Lulworth coast is briefly discussed.     

Genetic relationship between silver–lead–zinc mineralization in the Wutong deposit,Guangxi Province and Mesozoic granitic magmatism in the Nanling belt,southeast China

More than 50 % of the world's total reserves of tungsten are in China and most tungsten deposits are located in the Nanling range in southeast China. This study explores the potential genetic relationship between tungsten–tin (W–Sn) mineralization and shallower Ag–Pb–Zn deposits in the Nanling range based on data from the Wutong deposit, Guangxi Province. The lead, oxygen, carbon, sulfur, and strontium isotopic compositions of minerals at Wutong indicate that a single crustal-derived fluid was responsible for mineralization. Wutong likely formed at relatively low temperatures (～200–300 °C) and low pressures, as indicated by the similarity between homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions and those estimated from S isotopic compositions of minerals. The hübnerite age (92.3–104.4 Ma) indicates that the Wutong mineralization is likely related to nearby Late Yanshanian (Cretaceous) S-type granites derived from Proterozoic crust. This mineralization event coincides with the last W–Sn mineralization event and the Cretaceous peak of mineralization in the Nanling range.     

Geoarchaeological and Bioarchaeological Studies at Mira,an Early Upper Paleolithic Site in the Lower Dnepr Valley,Ukraine

New geoarchaeological and bioarcheological research was undertaken at the open‐air site of Mira, which is buried in deposits of the Second Terrace of the Dnepr River, roughly 15 km downstream from the city of Zaporozhye in Ukraine. Previous excavation of the site revealed two occupation layers dating to ∼32,000 cal BP. The lower layer (II/2) yielded bladelets similar to those of the early Gravettian, while the upper layer (I) contained traces of an artificial shelter and hundreds of bones and teeth of horse (Equus latipes). Mira represents the only firmly dated early Upper Paleolithic (EUP) site in the Dnepr Basin, and occupies a unique topographic setting for the EUP near the center of the broad floodplain of the Dnepr River. The site was visited during a period of floodplain stability, characterized by overbank deposition and weak soil formation under cool climate conditions. Mira was used as a long‐term camp, but also was the locus of large‐mammal carcass processing associated with a nearby kill of a group of horses (Layer I).