Tropical deforestation: Albedo and the surface-energy balance

Recent micrometeorological measurements for Amazonian rainforest are reviewed, emphasising those aspects of the radiation and heat balance which are likely to change with deforestation. The possible consequences of such deforestation are considered by examining the sensitivity of the surface energy balance to changes in those parameters which would be most drastically altered.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Chemical fractionation in the silicate vapor atmosphere of the Earth

Despite its importance to questions of lunar origin, the chemical composition of the Moon is not precisely known. In recent years, however, the isotopic composition of lunar samples has been determined to high precision and found to be indistinguishable from the terrestrial mantle despite widespread isotopic heterogeneity in the Solar System. In the context of the giant-impact hypothesis, this level of isotopic homogeneity can evolve if the proto-lunar disk and post-impact Earth undergo turbulent mixing into a single uniform reservoir while the system is extensively molten and partially vaporized. In the absence of liquid–vapor separation, such a model leads to the lunar inheritance of the chemical composition of the terrestrial magma ocean. Hence, the turbulent mixing model raises the question of how chemical differences arose between the silicate Earth and Moon. Here we explore the consequences of liquid–vapor separation in one of the settings relevant to the lunar composition: the silicate vapor atmosphere of the post-giant-impact Earth. We use a model atmosphere to quantify the extent to which rainout can generate chemical differences by enriching the upper atmosphere in the vapor, and show that plausible parameters can generate the postulated enhancement in the FeO/MgO ratio of the silicate Moon relative to the Earth's mantle. Moreover, we show that liquid–vapor separation also generates measurable mass-dependent isotopic offsets between the silicate Earth and Moon and that precise silicon isotope measurements can be used to constrain the degree of chemical fractionation during this earliest period of lunar history. An approach of this kind has the potential to resolve long-standing questions on the lunar chemical composition.     

Estimation of the 3D correlation structure of an alluvial aquifer from surface-based multi-frequency ground-penetrating radar reflection data

Knowledge about the stochastic nature of heterogeneity in subsurface hydraulic properties is critical for aquifer characterization and the corresponding prediction of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Whereas the vertical correlation structure of the heterogeneity is often well constrained by borehole information, the lateral correlation structure is generally unknown because the spacing between boreholes is too large to allow for its meaningful inference. There is, however, evidence to suggest that information on the lateral correlation structure may be extracted from the correlation statistics of the subsurface reflectivity structure imaged by surface-based ground-penetrating radar measurements. To date, case studies involving this approach have been limited to 2D profiles acquired at a single antenna centre frequency in areas with limited complementary information. As a result, the practical reliability of this methodology has been difficult to assess. Here, we extend previous work to 3D and consider reflection ground-penetrating radar data acquired using two antenna centre frequencies at the extensively explored and well-constrained Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. We find that the results obtained using the two ground-penetrating radar frequencies are consistent with each other, as well as with information from a number of other studies at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. In addition, contrary to previous 2D work, our results indicate that the surface-based reflection ground-penetrating radar data are not only sensitive to the aspect ratio of the underlying heterogeneity, but also, albeit to a lesser extent, to the so-called Hurst number, which is a key parameter characterizing the local variability of the fine-scale structure.     

On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction

This study presents the first multi-proxy reconstruction of rainfall variability from the mid-latitude region of south-eastern Australia (SEA). A skilful rainfall reconstruction for the 1783–1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from the Australasian region. An innovative Monte Carlo calibration and verification technique is introduced to provide the robust uncertainty estimates needed for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensemble median reconstruction captures 33% of inter-annual and 72% of decadal variations in instrumental SEA rainfall observations. We investigate the stability of regional SEA rainfall with large-scale circulation associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the past 206 years. We find evidence for a robust relationship with high SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IPO over the 1840–1988 period. These relationships break down in the late 18th–early 19th century, coinciding with a known period of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling during one of the most severe periods of the Little Ice Age. In comparison to a markedly wetter late 18th/early 19th century containing 75% of sustained wet years, 70% of all reconstructed sustained dry years in SEA occur during the 20th century. In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1% probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998–2008 ‘Big Dry’ is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.     

Analysis of cumulus solar irradiance reflectance (CSIR) events

Clouds are extremely important with regard to the transfer of solar radiation at Earth's surface. This study investigates Cumulus Solar Irradiance Reflection (CSIR) using ground-based pyranometers. CSIR events are short-term increases in solar radiation observed at the surface as a result of reflection off the sides of convective clouds. When Sun-cloud observer geometry is favorable, these occurrences produce characteristic spikes in the pyranometer traces and solar irradiance values may exceed expected clear-sky values. Ultraviolet CSIR events were investigated during the summer of 1995 using UVA and UVB pyranometers. Observed data were compared to clear-sky curves which were generated using a third degree polynomial best-fit line technique. Periods during which the observed data exceeded this clear-sky curve were identified as CSIR events. The magnitude of a CSIR event was determined by two different quantitative calculations. The MAC (magnitude above clear-sky) is an absolute measure of the difference between the observed and clear-sky irradiances. Maximum MAC values of 3.4 Win⁻² and 0.0169 Wm⁻² were observed at the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, respectively. The second calculation determined the percentage above clear-sky (PAC) which indicated the relative magnitude of a CSIR event. Maximum UV-A and UV-B PAC magnitudes of 10.1% and 7.8%, respectively, were observed during the study. Also of interest was the duration of the CSIR events which is a function of Sun-cloud-sensor geometry and the speed of cloud propagation over the measuring site. In both the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, significant CSIR durations of up to 30 minutes were observed. C 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.     

Potential effect of climate change on observed fire regimes in the Cordilleran forests of South-Central Interior, British Columbia

Climate change is predicted to result in a warmer and drier climate in many parts of the world, including south-central British Columbia. With a shift in climate, a change in fire regimes is likely to occur. In this study, a statistically significant increase in mean fire size was predicted to occur along with an increase maximum fire size and decrease in the mean fire interval. A change in these fire regime characteristics suggests a climate-change driven shift in fire regimes may occur by the 2020s. The shift in fire regime suggests the proportion of the landscape burning every 50 years or less will increase from 34 % to 93 % by the 2080s. Change in fire regimes will have direct implications for ecosystem management as the combination of large, flammable fuel types and fire-prone climatic conditions will increase the risk of larger more frequent fires and increase the costs and dangers involved in managing fire-prone forests in the Cordilleran region of south-central British Columbia. The climate change-driven shift in fire regime questions the use of historic fire regime characteristics for determining landscape-level conservation targets within the study area.     

Actinic flux and photolysis frequency comparison computations using the model PHOTOGT

The accurate radiative transfer model GOMETRAN, initially designed to yield radiances at TOA in the wavelength range 240–790 nm, has been extended to allow for the computation of actinic fluxes down to 175 nm and for the calculation of photolysis frequencies in the atmosphere. The capability of the extended model PHOTOGT (PHOTOGOMETRAN) is demonstrated in a number of successful comparison studies both with recent experiments (ground-based, balloonborne, airborne) and model calculations of radiances, actinic fluxes and photolysis frequencies in the stratosphere and troposphere. In an atmospheric case study, the impact of new quantum yield data for the O₃ » O₂+O(¹ d) photodissociation channel on the photolytic production of O(¹ d) atoms in the lower atmosphere has been quantified.     

Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.