Geo-informational simulation of possible changes in Central Asian water resources

This study simulates water resources in the Tien Shan alpine basins to forecast how global and regional climate changes would affect river runoff. The model employed annual mean values for the major characteristics of the water cycle: annual air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and river runoff. The simulation was based on 304 hydro-meteorological stations, 23 precipitation sites, 328 high altitudinal points with glaciological measurements, 123 stream-gauges, and 54 evaporation sites, and it took into account topography. The findings were simulated over Tien Shan relief using a 1:500,000 scale 100 m grid resolution Digital Elevation Model. An applicable GIS-based distributed River Runoff Model was implemented in regional conditions and tested in the Tien Shan basins. The annual evapotranspiration exceeds the river runoff in the Tien Shan watersheds particularly up to 3700 m. Hypothetical climate-change scenarios in the Tien Shan predict that by 2100 river runoff will increase by 1.047 times with an increase in air temperature averaging 3 °C and an increase in precipitation averaging 1.2 times the current levels. Change in precipitation, rather than temperature, is the main parameter determining river runoff in the Tien Shan. The maximum ratio for predicted river runoff could reach up to 2.2 and the minimum is predicted to be 0.55 times current levels. This possibly dramatic change in river runoff indicates on non-linear system response caused mainly by the non-linear response of evapotranspiration from air temperature and precipitation changes. In the frame of forecasted possible climate change scenarios the probability of river runoff growth amounts 83–87% and probability of this decline is 17–13% by 2100 in the Tien Shan River basins.     

Multi-proxy climate and environmental records from a Holocene eutrophic mire,southern taiga subzone,West Siberia

Palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from peat are strongly focused on ombrotrophic mires, but this study demonstrates that eutrophic mires can also be used. A multi-proxy approach was applied to a eutrophic mire on a floodplain terrace in the southern taiga of West Siberia. The results of the reconstruction were considered in the wide geographic context of the surrounding regions, including Siberia and Central Asia. Different palaeoecological proxies (analysis of plant macrofossils, testate amoebae, oribatid mites, molluscs, peat humification, ash content and spectral characteristics of humic acids) were used in this study. The results of different proxies showed a high level of consistency among themselves, which allowed for a robust interpretation of Holocene mire development. Throughout the ~7800 years history of the mire, there was a high level of surface wetness. The presence of mineral matter in the peat between 7800 and 5100 cal. a BP indicates regular flooding caused by the intensive fluvial activity, apparently resulting from increased precipitation. This was followed by a trend towards a gradual decrease in surface wetness from conditions of high surface moisture (stagnant water) between 5100 and 3000 cal. a BP to present day conditions of moderate surface moisture with a water table slightly below the mire surface. This pattern is consistent with the well-documented long-term trend from palaeoecological records throughout the taiga and arctic zones in West Siberia and central arid Asia. Our data further support the idea that the westerlies were the dominant driver of climate for the southern taiga of West Siberia during the Middle to Late Holocene.     

Polarization of Microwave Radio Emission of Flare-Producing Solar Active Regions

On the basis of our multiwavelength observations made with the one-dimensional RATAN-600 radio telescope, we study the inversion of the circular polarization in the solar microwave emission at different frequencies. The inversion is detected in the emission of flare-producing active regions (FPARs) at various stages of their development, starting from the pre-flare stage. During the latest 23rd solar cycle maximum, numerous FPARs revealed spectral inhomogeneities in their polarized microwave radiation (Bogod and Tokhchukova, 2003, Astron. Lett. 29, 263). Here, we discuss a particular case of such inhomogeneities, the frequency-dependent double inversion of the sign of circular polarization, which probably reflects some essential processes in FPARs. We consider several mechanisms for the double inversion: linear interaction of waves in the region of a quasitransverse magnetic field, the propagation of waves through a region of zero magnetic field, the scattering of radio waves on waves of high-frequency plasma turbulence, the influence of the current fibrils on the propagation of the radio emission, and the magnetic “dips,” in which the direction of magnetic field lines changes the sign relative to the observer. All of them have shortcomings, but the last mechanism explains the observations the best.     

Nitrogen recycling in subducted oceanic lithosphere: The record in high- and ultrahigh-pressure metabasaltic rocks

This paper provides the first measurements of the nitrogen (N) concentrations and isotopic compositions of high- and ultrahigh-pressure mafic eclogites, aimed at characterizing the subduction input flux of N in deeply subducting altered oceanic crust (AOC). The samples that were studied are from the Raspas Complex (Ecuador), Lago di Cignana (Italy), the Zambezi Belt (Zambia) and Cabo Ortegal (Spain), together representing subduction to 50-90 km depths. The eclogites contain 2-20 ppm N with δ¹⁵N_air values ranging from −1 to +8‰. These values overlap those of altered oceanic crust, but are distinct from values for fresh MORB (for the latter, ∼1.1 ppm N and δ¹⁵N_air ∼ −4‰). Based on N data in combination with other trace element data, the eclogite suites can be subdivided into those that are indistinguishable from their likely protolith, AOC, with or without superimposed effects of devolatilization (Lago di Cignana, Cabo Ortegal), and those that have experienced metasomatic additions during subduction-zone metamorphism (Zambezi Belt, Raspas). For the former group, the lack of a detectable loss of N in the eclogites, compared to various altered MORB compositions, suggests the retention of N in deeply subducted oceanic crust. The metasomatic effects affecting the latter group can be best explained by mixing with a (meta)sedimentary component, resulting in correlated enrichments of N and other trace elements (in particular, Ba and Pb) thought to be mobilized during HP/UHP metamorphism. Serpentinized and high-pressure metamorphosed peridotites, associated with the eclogites at Raspas and Cabo Ortegal, contain 3-15 ppm N with δ¹⁵N_air values ranging from +3 to +6‰, significantly higher than the generally accepted values for the MORB mantle (δ¹⁵N_air ∼ −5‰). Based on their relatively high N contents and their homogeneous and positive δ¹⁵N values, admixing of sedimentary N is also indicated for the serpentinized peridotites.One possible pathway for the addition of sediment-derived N into eclogites and peridotites involves mixing with fluids along the slab-mantle wedge interface. Alternatively, sedimentary N could be incorporated into peridotites during serpentinization at bending-related faults at the outer rise and, during later deserpentinization, released into fluids that then infiltrate overlying rocks. Deep retention of N in subducting oceanic crust should be considered in any attempt to balance subduction inputs with outputs in the form of arc volcanic gases. If materials such as these eclogites and serpentinized peridotites are eventually subducted to beyond sub-arc depths into the deeper mantle, containing some fraction of their forearc-subarc N inventory (documented here), they could deliver isotopically heavy N into the mantle to potentially be sampled by plume-related magmas.     

Solar activity variations of thermospheric temperatures on Mars and a problem of CO in the lower atmosphere

Long-term MGS drag density observations at 390 km reveal variations of the density with season L_S (by a factor of 2) and solar activity index F_10.7 (by a factor of 3 for F_10.7 = 40-100). According to Forbes et al. (Forbes, J.M., Lemoine, F.G., Bruinsma, S.L., Smith, M.D., Zhang, X. [2008]. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L01201, doi:10.1029/2007GL031904), the variation with F_10.7 reflects variations of the exospheric temperature from 192 to 284 K. However, the derived temperature range corresponds to variation of the density at 390 km by a factor of 8, far above the observed factor of 3. The recent thermospheric GCMs agree with the derived temperatures but do not prove their adequacy to the MGS densities at 390 km. A model used by Forbes et al. neglects effects of eddy diffusion, chemistry and escape on species densities above 138 km. We have made a 1D-model of neutral and ion composition at 80-400 km that treats selfconsistently chemistry and transport of species with F_10.7, T_∞, and [CO₂]_80 km as input parameters. Applying this model to the MGS densities at 390 km, we find variation of T_∞ from 240 to 280 K for F_10.7 = 40 and 100, respectively. The results are compared with other observations and models. Temperatures from some observations and the latest models disagree with the MGS densities at low and mean solar activity. Linear fits to the exospheric temperatures are T_∞ = 122 + 2.17F_10.7 for the observations, T_∞ = 131 + 1.46F_10.7 for the latest models, and T_∞ = 233 + 0.54F_10.7 for the MGS densities at 390 km. Maybe the observed MGS densities are overestimated near solar minimum when they are low and difficult to measure. Seasonal variations of Mars’ thermosphere corrected for the varying heliocentric distance are mostly due to the density variations in the lower and middle atmosphere and weakly affect thermospheric temperature. Nonthermal escape processes for H, D, H₂, HD, and He are calculated for the solar minimum and maximum conditions.Another problem considered here refers to Mars global photochemistry in the lower and middle atmosphere. The models gave too low abundances of CO, smaller by an order of magnitude than those observed. Our current work shows that modifications in the boundary conditions proposed by Zahnle et al. (Zahnle, K., Haberle, R.M., Catling, D.C., Kasting, J.F. [2008]. J. Geophys. Res. 113, E11004, doi:10.1029/2008JE003160) are reasonable but do not help to solve the problem.     

Thermal instability of the fluid column in a borehole: application to the Yaxcopoil hole (Mexico)

Observational evidence proved that even when a borehole is in “fully” stabilized conditions, temperature data may exhibit certain unrest resembling irregular oscillations in the order of hundredths or (in the extreme case) even tenths of degree. Temperature was monitored in complicated hydrogeological conditions in the Yaxcopoil-1 hole (Chicxulub impact structure, Mexico). Two experiments are reported: (a) 20-day monitoring when a logger was located in the center of the high temperature gradient anomaly produced by the cold wave slowly propagating downwards and (b) simultaneous three-loggers 18-day monitoring with loggers located above, in and below the anomaly. All observed temperature–time series displayed intermittent oscillations of temperature with sharp gradients and large fluctuations over all observed time scales. While the “upper” and “lower” records revealed quasi-periodic temperature variations, the “central” record shows fast temperature oscillations with strong up-and-down reversals, all with amplitudes up to a few tenths of degree. The observed temperature–time series were processed by recurrence and recurrence interval quantification as well as by spectral analyses. It is shown that fluid in a borehole, subject to thermal gradient, is stable, as far as the gradient remains below a certain critical value. At higher Rayleigh numbers, the periodic character of oscillations typical for “quiescent” regime is superseded by stochastic features. This “oscillatory” convection occurs due to instability of the horizontal boundary layers. In the specific case of the Yaxcopoil hole, the time series above and below the cold wave (characterized by relatively lower temperature gradients between 20 and 50 mK/m) contain a clear low frequency component produced by tidal forcing. This component dominates over the high frequency domain (periods from 10–15 to 1 min), which exhibit a scaling behavior. This pattern conspicuously changes in the center part of the cold wave, where the local temperature gradient exceeds 200 mK/m and where tidal forcing composes only ~3% of the signal.     

North Atlantic warming: patterns of long-term trend and multidecadal variability

Climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean have wide-spread implications for Europe, Africa, and the Americas. This study assesses the relative contribution of the long-term trend and variability of North Atlantic warming using EOF analysis of deep-ocean and near-surface observations. Our analysis demonstrates that the recent warming over the North Atlantic is linked to both long-term (including anthropogenic and natural) climate change and multidecadal variability (MDV, ~50–80 years). Our results suggest a general warming trend of 0.031 ± 0.006°C/decade in the upper 2,000 m North Atlantic over the last 80 years of the twentieth century, although during this time there are periods in which short-term trends were strongly amplified by MDV. For example, MDV accounts for ~60% of North Atlantic warming since 1970. The single-sign basin-scale pattern of MDV with prolonged periods of warming (cooling) in the upper ocean layer and opposite tendency in the lower layer is evident from observations. This pattern is associated with a slowdown (enhancement) of the North Atlantic thermohaline overturning circulation during negative (positive) MDV phases. In contrast, the long-term trend exhibits warming in tropical and mid-latitude North Atlantic and a pattern of cooling in regions associated with major northward heat transports, consistent with a slowdown of the North Atlantic circulation as evident from observations and confirmed by selected modeling results. This localized cooling has been masked in recent decades by warming during the positive phase of MDV. Finally, since the North Atlantic Ocean plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating the global thermohaline circulation, the multidecadal fluctuations discussed here should be considered when assessing long-term climate change and variability, both in the North Atlantic and at global scales.     

Extended Self-Similarity in Geophysical and Geological Applications

In this paper we demonstrate application of the Extended Self-Similarity (ESS) concept, recently developed in turbulence physics, for geological and geophysical phenomena. The theoretical background is discussed first and then the ESS properties in fluvial turbulence, sand wave dynamics, Martian topography, river morphometry, gravel-bed mobility, and atmospheric barometric pressure are explored. The main attention is paid to fluvial turbulence and sand waves, while other examples are presented to support the generality of the ESS concept in earth sciences. The results show that the ESS properties of the considered phenomena are remarkably similar to those reported for turbulence, in spite of different underlying mechanisms. This suggests that a general rule should exist which governs a wide class of complex natural phenomena.