New induction sounding tested in Central Europe

The hourly data of nine geomagnetic observatories situated in Central Europe have been analyzed using the generalized magnetovariation (GMV) method designed recently for induction soundings of inhomogeneous media. In this method, impedance is one of transfer functions in the differential relation between spectra of the magnetic components and their derivatives. The peculiarity of this impedance is its correspondence to the magnetotelluric one estimated from the linear relations. Three transfer functions have been estimated simultaneously for data of geomagnetic observatories, using three different routines working in the period range from three hours up to two days. Noises in the source field components have been compared with noise in the estimated plane field divergence. The multivariate errors-in-variables method was used to extract spatially and temporally coherent geomagnetic field structure from the partially incoherent geomagnetic variations. This method allows estimating reliably impedances and gradient tippers for each observatory, taking into consideration the Earth’s sphericity. The obtained responses have been used for induction soundings and for detecting a deep inhomogeneity in the region.     

Classification of near-surface anomalies in the seismic refraction method according to the shape of the time–distance graph: A theoretical approach

Results obtained by SASW and PS-logging (in-hole) seismic techniques are compared with the relatively new ReMi (Refraction microtremor) method at a common site with a well-known soil profile: a recently constructed high-speed railway embankment. PS-logging is the most accurate technique in identifying the soil profile of the embankment followed by Re-Mi and SASW. Mean shear wave velocity estimations are also higher for PS-logging, followed by SASW and ReMi, while mean deviation is similar in each technique. The ReMi technique has provided very accurate results in the study of the embankment profile, which in addition to its high operability and its fast data processing, makes it a very convenient technique for extensive geotechnical surveys.     

Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment

Earthquake professionals have for many decades recognized the benefits to society from reliable earthquake predictions, but uncertainties regarding source initiation, rupture phenomena, and accuracy of both the timing and magnitude of the earthquake occurrence have oftentimes seemed either very difficult or impossible to overcome. The problem is that most of these methods cannot be adequately tested and evaluated either because of (a) lack of a precise definition of “prediction” and/or (b) shortage of data for meaningful statistical verification. This is not the case for the pattern recognition algorithm M8 designed in 1984 for prediction of great, Magnitude 8, earthquakes, hence its name. By 1986, the algorithm was rescaled for applications aimed at smaller magnitude earthquakes, down to M5+ range, and since then it has become a useful tool for systematic monitoring of seismic activity in a number of test seismic regions worldwide. After confirmed predictions of both the 1988 Spitak (Armenia) and the 1989 Loma Prieta (California) earthquakes, a “rigid test” to evaluate the efficiency of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique has been designed. Since 1991, each half-year, the algorithm M8 alone and in combination with its refinement MSc has been applied in a real-time prediction mode to seismicity of the entire Earth, and this test outlines, where possible, the areas in the two approximations where magnitude 8.0+ and 7.5+ earthquakes are most likely to occur before the next update. The results of this truly global 20-year-old experiment are indirect confirmations of the existing common features of both the predictability and the diverse behavior of the Earth’s naturally fractal lithosphere. The statistics achieved to date prove (with confidence above 99 %) rather high efficiency of the M8 and M8-MSc predictions limited to intermediate-term middle- and narrow-range accuracy. These statistics support the following general conclusions—(1) precursory seismic patterns do exist; (2) the size of an area where precursory seismic patterns show up is much larger than that of the source zone of the incipient target earthquake; (3) many precursory seismic patterns appear to be similar, even in regions of fundamentally different tectonic environments; and (4) some precursory seismic patterns are analogous to those in advance of extreme catastrophic events in other complex nonlinear systems (e.g., magnetic storms, solar flares, “starquakes”, etc.)—that are of high importance for further searches of the improved earthquake forecast/prediction algorithms and methods.     

Determination of ecological significance based on geostatistical assessment: a case study from the Slovak Natura 2000 protected area

The Sitno Natura 2000 Site covers an area of 935,56 hectares. The Sitno region is significant due to the number of rare and endangered species of plants, and as a result is considered a location of great importance to the maintenance of floral gene pools. The study area suffers human impacts in the form of tourism. The main purpose of this study is to the measure landscape elements, determine the ecological significance of habitats within the Sitno area, and from this data, organize the study area into conservation zones. The results of this landscape quantification are numerical values that can be used to interpret the quality of ongoing ecological processes within individual landscape types. Interpretation of this quantified data can be used to determine the ecological significance of landscapes in other study areas. This research examines the habitats of Natura 2000 Sites by a set of landscape metrics for habitat area, size, density, and shape, such as Number of patches (NP), Patch density (PD), Mean patch size (MPS), Patch size standard deviation (PSSD) and Mean shape index (MSI). The classification of land cover patches is based on the Annex Code system.     

Electrical structure of the upper mantle beneath Central Europe: Results of the CEMES project

In the years 2001–2003, we accomplished the experimental phase of the project CEMES by collecting long-period magnetotelluric data at positions of eleven permanent geomagnetic observatories situated within few hundreds kilometers along the south-west margin of the East European Craton. Five teams were engaged in estimating independently the magnetotelluric responses by using different data processing procedures. The conductance distributions at the depths of the upper mantle have been derived individually beneath each observatory. By averaging the individual cross-sections, we have designed the final model of the geoelectrical structure of the upper mantle beneath the CEMES region. The results indicate systematic trends in the deep electrical structure of the two European tectonic plates and give evidence that the electrical structure of the upper mantle differs between the East European Craton and the Phanerozoic plate of west Europe, with a separating transition zone that generally coincides with the Trans-European Suture Zone.     

Do river deltas in east India retreat? A case of the Krishna Delta

The construction of multiple dams and barrages in many Indian River basins over the last few decades significantly reduced river flow to the sea and affected the sediment regime. More reservoir construction is planned through the proposed National River Linking Project (NRLP), which will transfer massive amounts of water from the North to the South of India. The impacts of these developments on fertile and ecologically sensitive deltaic environments are poorly understood and quantified at present. In this paper an attempt is made to identify, locate and quantify coastal erosion and deposition processes in one of the major river basins in India—the Krishna—using a time series of Landsat images for 1977, 1990 and 2001 with a spatial resolution ranging from 57.0 m to 28.5 m. The dynamics of these processes are analyzed together with the time series of river flow, sediment discharge and sediment storage in the basin. Comparisons are made with similar processes identified and quantified earlier in the delta of a neighboring similarly large river basin—the Godavari. The results suggest that coastal erosion in the Krishna Delta progressed over the last 25 years at the average rate of 77.6 ha yr^− 1, dominating the entire delta coastline and exceeding the deposition rate threefold. The retreat of the Krishna Delta may be explained primarily by the reduced river inflow to the delta (which is three times less at present than 50 years ago) and the associated reduction of sediment load. Both are invariably related to upstream reservoir storage development.     

Altitude variation of the plasmapause signature in the main ionospheric trough

The projection of the plasmapause magnetic-field lines to low altitudes, where the light-ion chemistry is dominated by O⁺, tends to occur near the minimum electron density in the main (midlatitude) electron density trough at night. With increasing altitude in the trough, where H⁺ emerges as the dominant ion on the low-latitude boundary, we have found cases where the plasmapause field lines are located on the sharp low-latitude side of the trough as expected if this topside ionosphere H⁺ distribution varies in step with the plasmapause gradient in the distant plasmasphere. These conclusions are based on near-equatorial crossings of the plasmapause (corresponding to the steep gradient in the dominant species H⁺) by the Explorer-45 satellite as determined from electric-field measurements by Maynard and Cauffman in the early 1970s and ISIS-2 ionospheric topside-sounder measurements. The former data have now been converted to digital form and made available at http://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov. The latter provide samples of nearly coincident observations of ionospheric main trough crossings near the same magnetic-field lines of the Explorer 45-determined equatorial plasmapause. The ISIS-2 vertical electron density profiles are used to infer where the F-region transitions from an O⁺ to a H⁺ dominated plasma through the main trough boundaries.     

Heating rate dependency of petroleum-forming reactions: implications for compositional kinetic predictions

The generation of bulk petroleum, liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons from the Duvernay Formation was simulated by heating immature kerogens in a closed system (MSSV pyrolysis) at four different heating rates (0.013, 0.1, 0.7 and 5.0 K/min). Using the established parallel reaction kinetic model, temperature and compositional predictions were tested to be suitable for geological conditions by comparing the laboratory results with natural changes in source bitumens and reservoir oil maturity sequences from the Duvernay Formation. In the case of bulk liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons, the above kinetic calculations can be considered valid because their maximum yields are independent of laboratory heating rates. In contrast, the contents of paraffins, aromatics and sulfur compounds show a pronounced heating rate dependence. Extrapolated to geological heating rates, the compositional predictions are consistent with the bulk composition of natural products in the Duvernay-petroleum system showing an increase of paraffinicity and hydrogen content. In contrast to that, the “hump” decreases with decreasing heating rate, a trend which is confirmed by the low amounts of unresolved compounds in natural high maturity products. Because of these heating-rate dependent compositional changes, geological predictions of natural molecular composition by the commonly used kinetic models are not suitable.     

Deuterated hydrogen molecule and search for early structure-formation signatures in the Universe

Possible detection of signatures of structure formation at the end of the 'dark age' epoch  ( z ∼ 40–20)  is examined. We discuss the spectral–spatial fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) temperature produced by elastic resonant scattering of CMBR photons on deuterated hydrogen (HD) molecules located in protostructures moving with peculiar velocity. Detailed chemical kinematic evolution of HD molecules in the expanding homogeneous medium is calculated. Then, the HD abundances are linked to protostructures at their maximum expansion, whose properties are estimated by using the top-hat spherical approach and the Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. We find that the optical depths in the HD three lowest pure rotational lines for high-peak protohaloes at their maximum expansion are much higher than those in LiH molecule. The corresponding spectral–spatial fluctuation amplitudes, however, are probably too weak to be detected by current and forthcoming millimetre telescope facilities. We extend our estimates of spectral–spatial fluctuations to gas clouds inside collapsed CDM haloes by using results from a crude model of HD production in these clouds. The fluctuations for the highest peak CDM haloes at redshifts ∼20–30 could be detected in the future. Observations will be important to test model predictions of early structure formation in the Universe.