Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960–2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001–2010) and the predicting period (2011–2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.     

Impact of copper smelting on lakes in the southern Ural Mountains,Russia, inferred from chironomids

Karabash (52°2 N, 60°10 E) is a copper smelting town in the southern Ural Mountains of Russia. The town is affected by sulphur dioxide emissions and deposition of metal-rich particulates from the smelter, acid drainage from old mine workings, and leachates from disused waste dumps and tailings dams. The close proximity of houses to these sources of pollution is of concern to human health and has devastated terrestrial vegetation in the environs. The environmental impact of the smelter on lakes in the area has been assessed using chironomids. Short sediment cores were taken from 16 lakes within a 50 km radius of the smelter and the composition of the chironomid fauna from the bottom of each core, representing conditions prior to the commissioning of the smelter in 1910, was compared with the present chironomid fauna in the surface sediments. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that changes in the chironomid fauna of most lakes were driven by trophic change, independent of the industrial activity. Lakes and ponds adjacent to the smelter and waste dumps, which directly receive contaminated waters were devoid of macro- and mesofauna and flora, but there is no evidence that other lakes have been severely impacted by smelter emissions. Local geology ensures that the lakes are well-buffered to the effects of acid deposition which will limit the bioavailability of metals in the water column and sediment.     

Modeling the history of Lake of the Woods since 11,000 cal yr B.P. using GIS

Because of differential isostatic rebound, many lakes in Canada have continued to change their extent and depth since retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Using GIS techniques, the changing configuration and bathymetry of Lake of the Woods in Ontario, Manitoba, and Minnesota were reconstructed for 12 points in time, beginning at 11,000 cal yr B.P. (9.6 ¹⁴C ka B.P.), and were also projected 500 years into the future, based on the assumption that Lake of the Woods continued to have a positive hydrological budget throughout the Holocene. This modeling was done by first compiling a bathymetric database and merging that with subaerial data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). This DEM file was then adjusted by: (1) isobase data derived from Lake Agassiz beaches prior to 9000 cal yr B.P. (8.1 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) and (2) modeled isostatic rebound trend analysis after 9000 cal yr B.P. Just after the end of the Lake Agassiz phase of Lake of the Woods, only the northernmost part of the basin contained water. Differential rebound has resulted in increasing water depth. In the first 3000 years of independence from Lake Agassiz, the lake transgressed >50 km to the south, expanding its area from 858 to 2857 km², and more than doubling in volume. Continued differential rebound after 6000 cal yr B.P. (5.2 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) has further expanded the lake, although today it is deepening by only a few cm per century at the southern end. In addition, climate change in the Holocene probably played a role in lake level fluctuations. Based on our calculation of a modern hydrological budget for Lake of the Woods, reducing runoff and precipitation by 65% and increasing evaporation from the lake by 40% would end overflow and cause the level of the lake to fall below the outlets at Kenora. Because this climate change is comparable to that recorded during the mid-Holocene warming across the region, it is likely that the area covered by the lake at this time would have been less than that determined from differential isostatic rebound alone.     

Interglacial History of a Palaeo-lake and Regional Environment: A Multi-proxy Study of a Permafrost Deposit from Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island, Arctic Siberia

Chironomid, pollen, and rhizopod records from a permafrost sequence at Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) document the development of a thermokarst palaeo-lake and environmental conditions in the region during the last Interglacial (MIS 5e). Open Poaceae and Artemisia associations dominated vegetation at the beginning of the interglacial period. Rare shrub thickets (Salix, Betula nana, Alnus fruticosa) grew in more protected and wetter places as well. Saalian ice wedges started to melt during this time, resulting in the formation of an initial thermokarst water body. The high percentage of semi-aquatic chironomids suggests that a peatland-pool initially existed at the site. A distinct decrease in semi-aquatic chironomid taxa and an increase in lacustrine ones point to a gradual pooling of water in the basin, which could in turn induce thermokarst and create a permanent pond during the subsequent period. The highest relative abundance of Chironomus and Procladius reflects unfrozen water remaining under the ice throughout the ice-covered period during the later stage of palaeo-lake development. The chironomid record points to three successive stages during the history of the lake: (1) a peatland pool; (2) a pond (i.e., shallower than the maximum ice-cover thickness); and (3) a shallow lake (i.e., deeper than the maximum ice-cover thickness). The trend of palaeo-lake development indicates that intensive thermokarst processes occurred in the region during the last Interglacial. Shrub tundra communities with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana dominated the vegetation during the interglacial optimum. The climate was moister and warmer than present. The results of this study suggest that quantitative chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from Arctic thermokarst ponds/lakes may be problematic due to other key environmental factors, such as prolonged periods of winter anoxia and local hydrological/geomorphological processes, controlling the chironomid assemblages.     

Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.     

Behaviour of radiogenic Pb in zircon during ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism: an ion imaging and ion tomography case study from the Kerala Khondalite Belt,southern India

Zircon crystals from a locally charnockitized Paleoproterozoic high-K metagranite from the Kerala Khondalite Belt (KKB) of southern India have been investigated by high-spatial resolution secondary ion mass spectrometry analysis of U–Th–Pb and rare earth elements (REE), together with scanning ion imaging and scanning ion tomography (depth-profiled ion imaging). The spot analyses constrain the magmatic crystallization age of the metagranite to ca. 1,850 Ma, with ultrahigh-temperature (UHT) metamorphism occurring at ca. 570 Ma and superimposed charnockite formation at ca. 520–510 Ma, while the ion imaging reveals a patchy distribution of radiogenic Pb throughout the zircon cores. Middle- to heavy-REE depletion in ca. 570 Ma zircon rims suggests that these grew in equilibrium with garnet and therefore date the UHT metamorphism in the KKB. The maximum apparent ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age obtained from the unsupported radiogenic Pb concentrations is also consistent with formation of the Pb patches during this event. The superimposed charnockitization event appears to have caused additional Pb-loss in the cores and recrystallization of the rims. The results of depth-profiling of the scanning ion tomography image stack show that the Pb-rich domains range in size from <5 nm to several 10 nm (diameter if assumed to be spherical). The occurrence of such patchy Pb has previously been documented only from UHT metamorphic zircon, where it likely results from annealing of radiation-damaged zircon. The formation of a discrete, heterogeneously distributed and subsequently immobile Pb phase effectively arrests the normal Pb-loss process seen at lower grades of metamorphism.     

Dehydration melting of solid amphibolite at 2.0 GPa: Effects of time and temperature

The dehydration melting of the natural rock at high pressure is important to investigating the magma formation in the earth’s interior. Since the 1970s, a lot of geological scientists have paid more atten- tion to the dehydration melting of the natural rock[1―5]. Previous experiments of dehydration melting and observations of fieldwork argued that the dehy- dration melting of the rock was probably the most important fashion for the melting of the lower crust rock[6―12]. The genesis of most …     

Toxicity of organophosphorus pesticide sumithion on larval stages of stinging catfish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Heteropneustes fossilis</Emphasis>

Sumithion is widely used to control brittle in paddy fields and tiger bug in fish larval rearing ponds. The objective of this study was to elucidate the toxic effects of sumithion on larval stages of stinging catfish Heteropneustes fossilis. Larvae were exposed to two concentrations (150 and 250 μg/L) of sumithion with one control in three replicates of each. Larvae samples were collected at 20- and 24-h intervals followed by observation under a digital microscope. Exposures of stinging catfish larvae to sumithion produced deformities including irregular head shape, lordosis, yolk sac edema, body arcuation, tissue ulceration, etc. The mortality rates of larvae were significantly increased in response to increase in sumithion concentrations. Furthermore, around 30% of the total adult stinging catfish reared in sumithiontreated aquaculture ponds were found to be deformed permanently. These findings highlight that exposure of stinging catfish to sumithion at the critical and sensitive stages in their life cycle may significantly reduce the number of returning adults. Therefore, the use of sumithion for crop protection needs to be considered carefully and alternatives to sumithion should to be developed for controlling aquatic insects in aqua-ponds during larval rearing.     

Algorithm for estimating sea surface temperatures based on Aqua/MODIS global ocean data. 2. Automated quality check process for eliminating cloud contamination

This study developed a post-processing quality check (QC) process to eliminate cloud contamination in infrared sea surface temperature (SST) without manual handling. Cloudiness of a pixel was evaluated quantitatively, in which the graduated verifications and a comprehensive decision from a combination of several tests were conducted. Additionally, the quality of SST data at the pixel was measured by acceptable limits from reference SST, which were obtained from historical data. The QC processed data showed good accuracy below 0.8°C, even in the near-cloud area. Before the QC, their accuracies including near-cloud areas were as poor as 2–5°C.     

Geological evolution of the West Luzon Basin (South China Sea,Philippines)

Interpretation of deep 2-D multi-channel seismic data sheds insights into the geological evolution of the West Luzon Basin, Philippines. This basin is a sediment-filled trough that is located between the island of Luzon and the outer arc high of the west Luzon subduction zone. High-amplitude, low-frequency reflection bands mark the acoustic basement. The basement, at about 6 s (TWT), is dissected by normal faults with some of them being inverted in a later phase of deformation. The sedimentary successions, overlying the basement are stratified with partly chaotic structures and discontinuous reflectors. Five regional unconformities separate major stratigraphic units. Grid calculations of our seismic data reveal variations in the sedimentation pattern of the basin with a shift of the deposition centre from east to west and backwards during formation. A distinct bottom-simulating reflector is commonly observed. Because the northern boundary of the continental fragments to the South of the West Luzon Basin is unclear we speculate that the basin may be (partly) underlain by continental crust. The continental crust was affected by rifting prior to and during the opening of the South China Sea and the basin was overprinted at a later stage by a forearc structural setting when subduction was initiated.