The improvement of greenhouse gas inventory as a tool for reduction emission uncertainties for operations with oil in the Russian Federation

The high quality inventory is an important step to greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The inventory quality is estimated by means of the uncertainty analysis. The level of uncertainty depends upon the reliability of activity data and the parameters used. An attempt has been made to improve the accuracy of the estimates through a shift from production-based method (IPCC Tier 1) (IPCC 2000) to enhanced combination of production-based and mass balance methods (IPCC Tier 2) (IPCC 2006) in the estimation of emissions from operations with oil that are key in the national greenhouse gas inventory of the Russian Federation. The IPCC Tier 2 (IPCC 2006) was adapted for the national conditions. The greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for 1990 to 2009 with the use of both methods. The quantitative uncertainty assessment of the calculations was performed, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison showed that the estimates made with the use of higher tier method resulted in higher accuracy and lower uncertainties (26 % respectively compared to previously derived 54 %).     

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and its relationship to ENSO in a partially coupled climate model

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is studied using a partially coupled climate model (PCCM) in which the ocean component is driven by observed monthly mean wind stress anomalies added to the monthly mean wind stress climatology from a fully coupled control run. The thermodynamic coupling between the atmospheric and oceanic components is the same as in the fully coupled model and, in particular, sea surface temperature (SST) is a fully prognostic variable. The results show that the PCCM simulates the observed SST variability remarkably well in the tropical and North Pacific and Indian Oceans. Analysis of the rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlation shows that the PCCM exhibits local air-sea coupling as in the fully coupled model and closer to what is seen in observations than is found in an atmospheric model driven by observed SST. An ensemble of experiments using the PCCM is analysed using a multivariate EOF analysis to identify the two major modes of variability of the EASM. The PCCM simulates the spatial pattern of the first two modes seen in the ERA40 reanalysis as well as part of the variability of the first principal component (correlation up to 0.5 for the model ensemble mean). Different from previous studies, the link between the first principal component and ENSO in the previous winter is found to be robust for the ensemble mean throughout the whole period of 1958–2001. Individual ensemble members nevertheless show the breakdown in the relationship before the 1980’s as seen in the observations.     

Preservation of diagenetic products of β-carotene in sedimentary rocks from the Lopare Basin (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Sedimentary rocks from the saline formation of the Lopare Basin were investigated. Sediments contain a moderate amount of immature to marginally mature algal organic matter deposited under slightly reducing to anoxic and slightly saline to hypersaline conditions. Almost all of the samples contain β-carotane in a relatively high quantity, and in some, it represents the most abundant compound in the total distribution of hydrocarbons. The objective of the study was to determine the conditions that are favourable to precursors of β-carotene and/or the preservation of the carotenoid hydrocarbon skeleton. Moreover, the dominant transformation pathways of β-carotene under different redox and salinity conditions, which lead to the formation of aromatic carotenoids were defined.     

On the modeling of ground-motion field for assessment of multiple-location hazard,damage, and loss: example of estimation of electric network performance during scenario earthquake

Consideration of within-earthquake ground-motion correlation is essential for the estimation of seismic hazards, damage, and loss for spatially distributed systems. In many seismically active regions, the strong motion data of real engineering significance are completely unavailable or very scarce. The absence of necessary data does not allow developing regional empirical correlation models, and the models obtained for other regions should be used with correspondent sensitivity analysis. The level of within-earthquake correlation may vary in broad range; therefore, development of correspondent criteria for selection from available models is important. In this paper, we analyzed the performance of a system of critical elements of electric power network (substations) depending on variations in within-earthquake correlation. The performance is described as probability of different levels of non-functionality, i.e., percentage of area suffering power outage, and probability of expected number of customers without power. We have shown that the proper choice of the within-earthquake correlation model is critical in comprehensive estimations of functionality of substations in electrical power system. Skipping the ground-motion variability and within-earthquake correlation may lead to unreliable results. Relevance of geology-based within-earthquake correlation models has been demonstrated, and a scheme, which allows reducing uncertainty in the choice of realistic correlation, has been proposed.     

An Integrated Study to Analyze Salt Lake Microbial Community Structure(Novosibirsk Oblast,Russia)

正Salt Lake is one of the lakes in the system,consisting of a huge amount of salt and bitter-salty lakes in Novosibirsk Oblast and Altai Krai.These lakes are unique and highly unstable systems where the parameters of geochemical     

Climate Change and Geochemistry May Explain the Finding of Marine Cyanobacteria in a Continental Saline Lake

正1 Introduction Alkaline Lake Khilganta located in a steppe zone of South Siberia(N 50°42'535,E 115°06'086)is unique among adjacent lakes because of a development of a thick(up to 3 cm)cyanobacterial mat dominated by     

Numerical simulations of very large impacts on the Earth

Vertical impacts on the Earth of asteroids 500-3000 km in diameter at 15 km/s have been numerically modelled using the hydrodynamic SOVA code. This code has been modified for the spherical system of coordinates well suited for simulations of very large impacts when the entire Earth is involved in motion. The simulations include cratering process, upward motion of deep mantle layers, fall of ejecta on the Earth, escape of matter to space, and formation of rock vapour atmospheres. The calculations were made for the period preceding disappearance of rock vapour atmospheres caused by radiation several years after the largest impacts. For very large vertical impacts at 15 km/s, escaping masses proved to be negligibly small. Quantities of kinetic, internal, potential, and radiated away energies are obtained as functions of time and space. After the impacts, a global layer of condensed ejecta covers the whole of the Earth's surface and the ejecta energy is sufficient to vaporise an ocean 3 km deep. The mass of rock vapour atmosphere is 10-23% of the impactor mass. This atmosphere has a greater mass than the water atmosphere if impactor is 2000 km in diameter or larger.     

沿阿穆尔板块西边界的活动断层(蒙古领土)

阿穆尔板块西部边界在蒙古境内的空间位置尚不清楚,并且活动断层构造及其沿线地壳的应力状态研究较少。本文在沿此边界的三个区域——杭爱—肯特构造鞍部、布尔古特地块(鄂尔浑—土拉交汇处)和色楞格地块(包括色楞格凹陷和布伦—努鲁隆起),利用空间图像解译、地形起伏度分析、地质构造资料以及构造压裂和沿裂缝位移资料重建构造古应力,对活动断层进行研究。研究表明,活动断裂继承了古生代和中生代古构造的非均质性。这些断层沿着板块边界并不是单一的带,而是成簇的。它们的运动取决于走向:亚纬向断层是具有一定逆分量的左旋走滑断层,北西向断层是逆断层或逆冲断层,通常具有右旋走滑分量,海底断层是右旋走滑断层,北东向断层是正断层。位于色楞格凹陷和杭爱东部的断裂构造的活动始于上新世。逆断层和走滑断层与上新世情况不符,但多与更新世地貌相符,表明其活动年代较晚,为更新世时期。利用构造断裂和沿断裂的位移,重建活动断裂带变形末阶段的应力应变状态,结果表明断裂在最大挤压轴的北北东和北东方向上以压缩和走滑为主。只有在色楞格凹陷内,以扩张和走滑类型的应力张量为主,且在最小挤压轴的北西走向尤为显著。在南部,杭爱东部(鄂尔浑地堑)内有1个以扩张机制为主的局部区域,说明蒙古中部断裂在更新世—全新世阶段的活动以及现代地震活动主要受与印度斯坦和欧亚大陆汇聚过程相关的东北方向的附加水平挤压的控制。使研究区地壳产生走滑变形、贝加尔湖裂谷发散活动以及阿穆尔板块东南运动的另一个因素是东南方向软流圈流动对岩石圈底部的影响。阿穆尔板块和蒙古地块之间的边界在构造结构上是零碎的,代表了覆盖整个蒙古西部变形带的边缘部分。