Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions

Polar climate studies are severely hampered by the sparseness of the sea ice observations. We aim at filling this critical gap by producing two 5-member sea ice historical simulations strongly constrained by ocean and atmosphere observational data and covering the 1958–2006 and 1979–2012 periods. This is the first multi-member sea ice reconstruction covering more than 50 years. The obtained sea ice conditions are in reasonable agreement with the few available observations. These best estimates of sea ice conditions serve subsequently as initial sea ice conditions for a set of 28 3-year-long retrospective climate predictions. We compare it to a set in which the sea ice initial conditions are taken from a single-member sea ice historical simulation constrained by atmosphere observations only. We find an improved skill in predicting the Arctic sea ice area and Arctic near surface temperature but a slightly degraded skill in predicting the Antarctic sea ice area. We also obtain a larger spread between the members for the sea ice variables, thus more representative of the forecast error.     

Modelling indicators of water security,water pollution and aquatic biodiversity in Europe

Abstract

The GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model for indicating human water security has been extended with a newly developed module for calculating pollutant concentrations. This module is first described and then illustrated by being used to model nitrogen, phosphorus and organic matter concentrations. The module uses solely input variables that are likely to be available for future scenarios, making it possible to apply the module to such scenarios. The module first calculates pollutant loading from land to rivers, lakes and wetlands by considering drivers such as agriculture, industry and sewage treatment. Calculated loadings are subsequently converted to concentrations by considering aquatic processes, such as dilution, downstream transport, evaporation, human water abstraction and biophysical loss processes. Aquatic biodiversity is indicated to be at risk if modelled pollutant concentrations exceed certain water quality standards. This is indicated to be the case in about 35% of the European area, especially where lakes and wetlands are abundant. Human water security is indicated to be at risk where human water demands cannot be fulfilled during drought events. This is found to be the case in about 10% of the European area, especially in Mediterranean, arid and densely-populated areas. Modelled spatial variation in concentrations matches well with existing knowledge, and the temporal variability of concentrations is modelled reasonably well in some river basins. Therefore, we conclude that the updated GWAVA model can be used for indicating changes in human water security and aquatic biodiversity across Europe.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Dumont, E., Williams, R., Keller, V., Voss, A., and Tattari, S., 2012. Modelling indicators of water security, water pollution and aquatic biodiversity in Europe. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1378–1403.     

A Case Study of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, CO and Particles Content Evolution in the Suburban Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using a 2-μm Doppler DIAL,a 1-μm Backscatter Lidar and an Array of In-situ Sensors

A network of remote and in-situ sensors was deployed in a Paris suburb in order to evaluate the mesoscale evolution of the daily cycle of CO₂ and related tracers in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and its relation to ABL dynamics and nearby natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks. A 2-μm heterodyne Doppler differential absorption lidar, which combines measurements of, (1) structure of the atmosphere, (2) radial velocity, and (3) CO₂ differential absorption was a particularly unique element of the observational array. We analyse the differences in the diurnal cycle of CO, CO₂, lidar reflectivity (a proxy for aerosol content) and H₂O using the lidar, airborne measurements in the free troposphere and ground-based measurements made at two sites located few kilometres apart. We demonstrate that vertical mixing dominates the early morning drawdown of CO and aerosol content trapped in the former nocturnal layer but not the H₂O and CO₂ mixing ratio variations. Surface fluxes, vertical mixing and advection all contribute to the ABL CO₂ mixing ratio decrease during the morning transition, with the relative importance depending on the rate and timing of ABL rise. We also show evidence that when the ABL is stable, small-scale (0.1-km vertical and 1-km horizontal) gradients of CO₂ and CO are large. The results illustrate the complexity of inferring surface fluxes of CO₂ from atmospheric budgets in the stable boundary layer.     

Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere-ocean global coupled model. Part II: weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism

Most state-of-the art global coupled models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in climate change scenarios but the mechanisms leading to this weakening are still being debated. The third version of the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) was used to conduct climate change experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The analysis of the A1B scenario experiment shows that global warming leads to a slowdown of North Atlantic deep ocean convection and thermohaline circulation south of Iceland. This slowdown is triggered by a freshening of the Arctic Ocean and an increase in freshwater outflow through Fram Strait. Sea ice melting in the Barents Sea induces a local amplification of the surface warming, which enhances the cyclonic atmospheric circulation around Spitzberg. This anti-clockwise circulation forces an increase in Fram Strait outflow and a simultaneous increase in ocean transport of warm waters toward the Barents Sea, favouring further sea ice melting and surface warming in the Barents Sea. Additionally, the retreat of sea ice allows more deep water formation north of Iceland and the thermohaline circulation strengthens there. The transport of warm and saline waters toward the Barents Sea is further enhanced, which constitutes a second positive feedback.     

Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere–ocean global coupled model. Part I: a mechanism governing the variability of ocean convection in a preindustrial experiment

A preindustrial climate experiment was conducted with the third version of the CNRM global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). This experiment is used to investigate the main physical processes involved in the variability of the North Atlantic ocean convection and the induced variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Three ocean convection sites are simulated, in the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in agreement with observations. A mechanism linking the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and convection in the GIN Seas is highlighted. Contrary to previous suggested mechanisms, in CNRM-CM3 the latter is not modulated by the variability of freshwater export through Fram Strait. Instead, the variability of convection is mainly driven by the variability of the sea ice edge position in the Greenland Sea. In this area, the surface freshwater balance is dominated by the freshwater input due to the melting of sea ice. The ice edge position is modulated either by northwestward geostrophic current anomalies or by an intensification of northerly winds. In the model, stronger than average northerly winds force simultaneous intense convective events in the Irminger and GIN Seas. Convection interacts with the thermohaline circulation on timescales of 5–10 years, which translates into MOC anomalies propagating southward from the convection sites.     

Study of the Santa Catarina aquifer system (Mexico Basin) using magnetotelluric soundings

A tensor magnetotelluric test survey was carried out in the region of Santa Catarina, located in the Chalco sub-basin of the Mexico Basin. The objective was to define the stratification at depth with an emphasis on the geometry of the main aquifer of that region which is partially known from DC resistivity soundings and drilling. High-quality magnetotelluric soundings could be recorded in the immediate vicinity of large urban zones because the sub-surface is very conductive. Interpretation shows that the solid bedrock is located at a depth of at least 800 m to the south and 1300 m to the north; it could, however, be much deeper. Using complementary DC resistivity sounding and well-logging data, three main layers have been defined overlying the bedrock. These layers are, from surface to bottom, an unsaturated zone of sand, volcanic ash and clay about 10 m thick, followed by a very conductive (1.5 ohm·m) 200 m thick layer of sand and ash with intercalated clay, saturated with highly mineralized water, and finally a zone with resistivity increasing gradually to 60 ohm·m. The investigated deep aquifer constitutes most of this third layer. It consists of a sequence of sand, gravel, pyroclastites and mainly fractured basalts. MT resistivity soundings and magnetic transfer functions also indicate that a shallow resistive structure is dipping, from the northwest, into the lacustrine deposits of the basin. This geologic feature is likely to be highly permeable fractured basaltic flows, which provide a channel by which water contaminated by the Santa Catarina landfill may leak into the basin.     

Time-lapse resistivity investigations for imaging saltwater transport in glaciofluvial deposits

Five intersecting resistivity sections have been measured in glaciofluvial deposits hosting an aquifer of regional importance situated along a heavy traffic highway in Sweden. The winter salt spreading has caused a regular salinity increase through the years. For imaging the transport of saltwater in the aquifer, the sections were measured exactly in the same location before and after winter, and interpreted using a time-lapse inverse procedure. Some auger drilling and RCPT data were available for correlation. After winter, the resistivity had generally decreased under the water table and increased above it. The decrease in resistivity in the saturated zone is interpreted as a plume of more saline groundwater created by de-icing salt from the road. The increase in the upper layer can be explained by changes in temperature and soil moisture. The study shows that time-lapse resistivity investigations has potential for imaging hydraulic pathways in complex hydrogeological environments.     

A virtual capital for the European Union?

This article explores the websites of the key institutions of the European Union to consider whether these applications of the new information and communication technologies may become a functional equivalent of the national capital city in the emerging supranational political arena. Three functions of capital cities are evaluated: that of command centre, showcase and cultural arena. The websites under consideration do provide a representation of the EU command centre, and they also offer detailed information useful for those monitoring and partaking in the EU decision-making process. They are underused as supranational showcase, with the noticeable exception of their institutionalisation of multilingualism. And they do offer a rudimentary EU-wide public space. The findings suggest that there is a real potential that could be exploited by the EU institutions to foster the expression of the supranational community.     

High cadmium concentrations in Jurassic limestone as the cause for elevated cadmium levels in deriving soils: a case study in Lower Burgundy,France

Cadmium (Cd) is a highly toxic element and its presence in the environment needs to be closely monitored. Recent systematic surveys in French soils have revealed the existence of areas in eastern and central France, which show systematically high cadmium concentrations. It has been suggested that at least part of these anomalous levels are of natural origin. For the Lower Burgundy area in particular, a direct heritage from the Jurassic limestone bedrock is highly suspected. This potential relationship has been studied in several localities around Avallon and this study reports new evidence for a direct link between anomalously elevated cadmium contents of Bajocian and Oxfordian limestone and high cadmium concentrations in deriving soils. Soils in this area show cadmium concentrations generally above the average national population values, with contents frequently higher than the ‘upper whisker’ value of 0.8 μg g⁻¹ determined by statistical evaluation. In parallel, limestone rocks studied in the same area exhibit cadmium concentrations frequently exceeding the mean value of 0.030–0.065 μg g⁻¹ previously given for similar rocks by one order of magnitude, with a maximum of 2.6 μg g⁻¹. Mean ratios between the cadmium concentrations of limestone bedrock and deriving soils (Cd_soil/Cd_rock), calculated for different areas, range from 4.6 to 5.7. Calculations based on the analyses of both soils from a restricted area and fragments of bedrock sampled in the immediate vicinity of high-concentration soils are around 5.5–5.7. Cd_soil/Cd_rock is useful in determining the potential of soils in Lower Burgundy to reflect and exacerbate the high concentrations of cadmium present in parent bedrocks.     

The drainage of Lake Ojibway in glaciolacustrine sediments of northern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Physical evidence for the drainage of glacial lakes remains relatively rare in depositional records, giving rise to much debate on the location of outlets and discharge pathways, as well as on the climate impact of the attendant meltwater forcing. Lake Ojibway developed following the withdrawal of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in northern Ontario and Quebec, Canada. The late‐stage evolution of this large ice‐dammed lake was influenced by the complex dynamics of the retreating ice margin, which highly complicates the identification of the termination of Lake Ojibway in glaciolacustrine sediment records. Here, we document the composition of sections of rhythmites that contain in their upper part an anomalously thick and whitish bed (10–15 cm) that is in turn overlain by ～1 m of faintly bedded rhythmites. Grain‐size analyses showed that the thick whitish bed consists primarily of fine to coarse silt (2–63 μm), contrasting with the lower and upper rhythmites that are largely dominated by clay (<2 μm). The detrital carbonate content of the thick silt bed is characterized by consistently high values (2.5 to 2.8%), whereas the bounding rhythmites show lower and highly variable values. Oxygen isotope measurements further show a marked change going from typical glacial meltwater values (～ ?29.6 to ?27.7‰; VSMOW) for the lower rhythmites and the silt bed to modern‐like meteoric values (?18.4 to ?14.6‰) for the uppermost rhythmites. These data suggest that this marker bed may be associated with a major drawdown event that possibly corresponds to the final drainage of Lake Ojibway. AMS radiocarbon dating of ostracods extracted from the drainage bed also documents an important hardwater effect within the Ojibway basin.