The sensitivity of the Late Saalian (140?ka) and LGM (21?ka) Eurasian ice sheets to sea surface conditions

This work focuses on the Late Saalian (140?ka) Eurasian ice sheets?? surface mass balance (SMB) sensitivity to changes in sea surface temperatures (SST). An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), forced with two preexisting Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21?ka) SST reconstructions, is used to compute climate at 140 and 21?ka (reference glaciation). Contrary to the LGM, the ablation almost stopped at 140?ka due to the climatic cooling effect from the large ice sheet topography. Late Saalian SST are simulated using an AGCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean. Compared to the LGM, these 140?ka SST show an inter-hemispheric asymmetry caused by the larger ice-albedo feedback, cooling climate. The resulting Late Saalian ice sheet SMB is smaller due to the extensive simulated sea ice reducing the precipitation. In conclusion, SST are important for the stability and growth of the Late Saalian Eurasian ice sheet.     

High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the twentieth, twenty first and twenty second centuries

About 75 % of the Antarctic surface mass gain occurs over areas below 2,000 m asl, which cover 40 % of the grounded ice-sheet. As the topography is complex in many of these regions, surface mass balance modelling is highly dependent on horizontal resolution, and studying the impact of Antarctica on the future rise in sea level requires physical approaches. We have developed a computationally efficient, physical downscaling model for high-resolution (15 km) long-term surface mass balance (SMB) projections. Here, we present results of this model, called SMHiL (surface mass balance high-resolution downscaling), which was forced with the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model to assess Antarctic SMB variability in the twenty first and the twenty second centuries under two different scenarios. The higher resolution of SMHiL better reproduces the geographical patterns of SMB and increase significantly the averaged SMB over the grounded ice-sheet for the end of the twentieth century. A comparison with more than 3200 quality-controlled field data shows that LMDZ4 and SMHiL reproduce the observed values equally well. Nevertheless, field data below 2,000 m asl are too scarce to efficiently show the added value of SMHiL and measuring the SMB in these undocumented areas should be a future scientific priority. Our results suggest that running LMDZ4 at a finer resolution (15 km) may give a future increase in SMB in Antarctica that is about 30 % higher than by using its standard resolution (60 km) due to the higher increase in precipitation in coastal areas at 15 km. However, a part (～15 %) of these discrepancies could be an artefact from SMHiL since it neglects the foehn effect and likely overestimates the precipitation increase. Future changes in the Antarctic SMB at low elevations will result from the competition between higher snow accumulation and runoff. For this reason, developing downscaling models is crucial to represent processes in sufficient detail and correctly model the SMB in coastal areas.     

Influence of tropical cyclones on sea surface temperature seasonal cycle and ocean heat transport

Recent studies suggested that tropical cyclones (TCs) contribute significantly to the meridional oceanic heat transport by injecting heat into the subsurface through mixing. Here, we estimate the long-term oceanic impact of TCs by inserting realistic wind vortices along observed TCs tracks in a 1/2° resolution ocean general circulation model over the 1978–2007 period. Warming of TCs’ cold wakes results in a positive heat flux into the ocean (oceanic heat uptake; OHU) of ~480 TW, consistent with most recent estimates. However, ~2/5 of this OHU only compensates the heat extraction by the TCs winds during their passage. Another ~2/5 of this OHU is injected in the seasonal thermocline and hence released back to the atmosphere during the following winter. Because of zonal compensations and equatorward transport, only one-tenth of the OHU is actually exported poleward (46 TW), resulting in a marginal maximum contribution of TCs to the poleward ocean heat transport. Other usually neglected TC-related processes however impact the ocean mean state. The residual Ekman pumping associated with TCs results in a sea-level drop (rise) in the core (northern and southern flanks) of TC-basins that expand westward into the whole basin as a result of planetary wave propagation. More importantly, TC-induced mixing and air-sea fluxes cool the surface in TC-basins during summer, while the re-emergence of subsurface warm anomalies warms it during winter. This leads to a ~10 % reduction of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle within TCs basins, which may impact the climate system.     

Observed Changes in One-in-20 Year Extremes of Canadian Surface Air Temperatures

Weather and climate extremes are often associated with substantial adverse impacts on society and the environment. Assessment of changes in extremes is of great and broad interest. This study first homogenizes daily minimum and maximum surface air temperatures recorded at 146 stations in Canada. In order to assess changes in one-in-20 year extremes (i.e., extremes with a 20-year return period) in temperature, annual maxima and minima of both daily minimum temperatures and daily maximum temperatures are derived from the homogenized daily temperature series and analyzed with a recently developed extreme value analysis approach based on a tree of generalized extreme value distributions (including stationary and non-stationary cases). The procedure is applied to estimate the changes over the period 1911 to 2010 at 115 stations, located mainly in southern Canada, and over the period 1961 to 2010 at 146 stations across Canada (including 37 stations in the North). The results show that warming is strongest for extreme low temperature and weakest for extreme high temperature and is much stronger in the Canadian Arctic than in southern Canada. Warming is stronger in winter than in summer and stronger during nighttime than daytime of the same season.     

The Third GABLS Intercomparison Case for Evaluation Studies of Boundary-Layer Models. Part B: Results and Process Understanding

We describe and analyze the results of the third global energy and water cycle experiment atmospheric boundary layer Study intercomparison and evaluation study for single-column models. Each of the nineteen participating models was operated with its own physics package, including land-surface, radiation and turbulent mixing schemes, for a full diurnal cycle selected from the Cabauw observatory archive. By carefully prescribing the temporal evolution of the forcings on the vertical column, the models could be evaluated against observations. We focus on the gross features of the stable boundary layer (SBL), such as the onset of evening momentum decoupling, the 2-m minimum temperature, the evolution of the inertial oscillation and the morning transition. New process diagrams are introduced to interpret the variety of model results and the relative importance of processes in the SBL; the diagrams include the results of a number of sensitivity runs performed with one of the models. The models are characterized in terms of thermal coupling to the soil, longwave radiation and turbulent mixing. It is shown that differences in longwave radiation schemes among the models have only a small effect on the simulations; however, there are significant variations in downward radiation due to different boundary-layer profiles of temperature and humidity. The differences in modelled thermal coupling to the land surface are large and explain most of the variations in 2-m air temperature and longwave incoming radiation among models. Models with strong turbulent mixing overestimate the boundary-layer height, underestimate the wind speed at 200 m, and give a relatively large downward sensible heat flux. The result is that 2-m air temperature is relatively insensitive to turbulent mixing intensity. Evening transition times spread 1.5 h around the observed time of transition, with later transitions for models with coarse resolution. Time of onset in the morning transition spreads 2 h around the observed transition time. With this case, the morning transition appeared to be difficult to study, no relation could be found between the studied processes, and the variation in the time of the morning transition among the models.     

Zarafasaura oceanis, a new elasmosaurid (Reptilia: Sauropterygia) from the Maastrichtian Phosphates of Morocco and the palaeobiogeography of latest Cretaceous plesiosaurs

Though the Maastrichtian Phosphates of Morocco have yielded very rich marine vertebrate assemblages, plesiosaurs remain very scarce in these strata. The only hitherto recognized taxon was Plesiosaurus mauritanicus Arambourg, 1952, regarded here as a nomem dubium. Here we describe a new genus and species of elasmosaurid plesiosaur, Zarafasaura oceanis, which represents the first valid elasmosaurid plesiosaur described from the latest Cretaceous of Africa, and the second one from this continent. A phylogenetic analysis of plesiosauroids indicates that Zarafasaura oceanis has close affinities with elasmosaurids from the Late Cretaceous of North America and Japan. Among its distinctive suite of characters, the general shape and organisation of its squamosal and palate are unique among elasmosaurids. This new taxon completes our understanding of Late Cretaceous plesiosaur palaeobiodiversity and palaeobiogeography, and shows that Maastrichtian plesiosaurs were characterized by a quite high degree of endemism. They were also highly diversified and distributed worldwide, which supports the hypothesis of a catastrophic extinction of plesiosaurs at the K/T boundary.     

Hollow Cylinder Simulation Experiments of Galleries in Boom Clay Formation

In the context of nuclear waste disposal in clay formations, laboratory experiments were performed to study at reduced scale the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) induced by the construction of galleries in the Boom clay formation. For this purpose, thick-walled hollow cylindrical samples were subjected (after recovery of in situ stress conditions) to a decrease in the inner confining pressure aiming at mimicking a gallery excavation. X-ray computed tomography (XRCT) scans of the specimens were carried out through the testing cell before and after the mechanical unloading and allowed to quantify the displacements undergone by the clay as a result of the mechanical unloading. The deformation of the hollow cylinders and the inferred extent of the damaged zone around the central hole are found to depend on the orientation of the specimen with respect to the bedding planes and show a great similarity with in situ observations around galleries and boreholes at Mol URL in the Boom clay formation. In the experiments performed on samples cored parallel to the bedding, the damaged zone is not symmetrical with respect to the hole axis and extends more in the direction parallel to the bedding. It is the same for the radial convergence of the hole walls which is larger in the direction parallel to bedding than in the perpendicular one. In contrast, a test on a sample cored perpendicularly to the bedding did not show any ovalisation of the central hole after the mechanical unloading. These observations confirm the significance of the pre-existing planes of weakness (bedding planes) in Boom clay and the need for a correct consideration of the related mechanical anisotropy.     

Hollow Cylinder Tests on Boom Clay: Modelling of Strain Localization in the Anisotropic Excavation Damaged Zone

Boom Clay is extensively studied as a potential candidate to host underground nuclear waste disposal in Belgium. To guarantee the safety of such a disposal, the mechanical behaviour of the clay during gallery excavation must be properly predicted. In that purpose, a hollow cylinder experiment on Boom Clay has been designed to reproduce, in a small-scale test, the Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) as experienced during the excavation of a disposal gallery in the underground. In this article, the focus is made on the hydro-mechanical constitutive interpretation of the displacement (experimentally obtained by medium resolution X-ray tomography scanning). The coupled hydro-mechanical response of Boom Clay in this experiment is addressed through finite element computations with a constitutive model including strain hardening/softening, elastic and plastic cross-anisotropy and a regularization method for the modelling of strain localization processes. The obtained results evidence the directional dependency of the mechanical response of the clay. The softening behaviour induces transient strain localization processes, addressed through a hydro-mechanical second grade model. The shape of the obtained damaged zone is clearly affected by the anisotropy of the materials, evidencing an eye-shaped EDZ. The modelling results agree with experiments not only qualitatively (in terms of the shape of the induced damaged zone), but also quantitatively (for the obtained displacement in three particular radial directions).     

Laboratory and In Situ Simulation Tests of the Excavation Damaged Zone Around Galleries in Opalinus Clay

In the context of nuclear waste disposal in clay formations, laboratory and in situ simulation experiments were performed to study at reduced scale the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) around tunnels in the indurated Opalinus Clay at Mont Terri, Switzerland. In the laboratory, thick-walled hollow cylindrical specimens were subjected to a mechanical unloading mimicking a gallery excavation. In samples cored parallel to bedding, cracks sub-parallel to the bedding planes open and lead to a buckling failure in two regions that extend from the borehole in the direction normal to bedding. The behaviour is clearly anisotropic. On the other hand, in experiments performed on specimens cored perpendicular to bedding, there is no indication of failure around the hole and the response of the hollow cylinder sample is mainly isotropic. The in situ experiment at Mont Terri which consisted in the overcoring of a resin-injected borehole that follows the bedding strike of the Opalinus Clay showed a striking similarity between the induced damaged zone and the fracture pattern observed in the hollow cylinder tests on samples cored parallel to bedding and such a bedding controlled “Excavation” Damaged Zone is as well consistent with the distinct fracture patterns observed at Mont Terri depending on the orientation of holes/galleries with respect to the bedding planes. Interestingly, the damaged zone observed in the hollow cylinder tests on samples cored parallel to bedding and in situ around URL galleries is found to develop in reverse directions in Boom Clay (Mol) and in Opalinus Clay (Mont Terri). This most probably results from different failure mechanisms, i.e. shear failure along conjugated planes in the plastic Boom Clay, but bedding plane splitting and buckling in the indurated Opalinus Clay.