Overcoming unreported violence using place-based ambulance data: The case for mapping hotspots based on health data for crime prevention initiatives

A key concern in crime analysis is the “hidden crime” problem. Crime events unaccounted for in police records limit the external validity of official statistics and, more importantly, hinder the ability of the police to manage crime and utilize their resources effectively. The problem is exacerbated in proactive initiatives aimed at curbing violence through hotspot policing, where inaccuracies and imprecision, or, worse, no data at all, diminish prevention efforts. Previous studies have sought to overcome the data problem by juxtaposing police records with ambulance data on assault callouts and have found profound disparities. Specifically, researchers matched “crime hotspots” with “ambulance hotspots” (rather than individual events) because patient confidentiality considerations have prevented health professionals from sharing subject-level data with the police. However, health services can safely share spatial data on wider areas that do not disclose personal information. We build on this line of inquiry by analyzing data from the Thames Valley, United Kingdom, and observing spatial hotspots of different sizes. The results demonstrate that while the police and ambulance services attend to the same communities and similar types of facilities, the police are “blinded” to the location of nearly 8 out of 10 assaults. The incongruency is shown even with severe assaults, but to a lesser extent. We then simulate the reduction in injuries if the police had access to health data at different spatial levels and show that even under the most conservative set of assumptions, such an approach can prevent between 113 and 116 violent injuries each year that might otherwise require hospitalization.     

Instability of a High Alpine Rock Ridge: the Lower Arête Des Cosmiques,Mont Blanc Massif,France

Rockfalls are dominant in the rock slopes and rock ridge morphodynamics in high mountain areas and endanger people who pass along or stay there, as well as infrastructure that host them (cable cars, refuges). Risks are probably greater now because of fast permafrost degradation and regression of surface ice, two consequences of the atmospheric warming of the last decades. These two commonly associated factors are involved in the instability of rock slopes by modifying the mechanical behaviour of often ice‐filled rock fractures and the mechanical constraints in the rock masses. This paper examines over 15 years the instability of the lower Arête des Cosmiques on the French side of the Mont Blanc massif. Its vulnerability is due to the presence of a high‐capacity refuge on its top (3613 m a.s.l.). In 1998, a part of the refuge was left without support when a collapse of 600 m³ occurred immediately below it. Since this date, reinforcement work has been carried out in this area, but the whole ridge has been affected by around 15 relatively shallow rockfalls. Through a multidisciplinary approach, this article assesses the role of the cryospheric factors in the triggering of these rockfalls.     

Climatic variations in MIS 11 recorded by stable isotopes and trace elements in a French tufa (La Celle,Seine Valley)

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 palaeoclimate has so far been documented in marine and ice sheet isotopic records. However, excepting some lacustrine pollen records, very little is known about palaeoclimatic conditions in continental areas. This study uses geochemical records in calcareous tufa deposits from rivers as a basis for reconstructing temperate palaeoclimatic conditions. Tufa deposits are now proven to record high‐quality palaeoclimatic information in recent to Holocene deposits. Work on older interglacial tufas is just starting and in this paper we present the first comprehensive results from a MIS 11 tufa. The tufa comes from the Seine Valley (La Celle, northern France). Geochemical data in the tufa calcite are interpreted to record primarily air temperature (δ¹⁸O) and humidity (δ¹³C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca). The combined data identify a warm and wet climatic optimum followed by two temperature decreases associated with oscillations in humidity. These marked climatic variations recorded through the La Celle profile are strongly coherent with the palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from malacological data. The abrupt climatic and environmental events recorded could be related to short‐term degradation of vegetation cover in Europe, which is itself controlled by global palaeoclimatic events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mauritius since the last glacial: environmental and climatic reconstruction of the last 38 000 years from Kanaka Crater

A 10 m long peat core from the Kanaka Crater (20° 25′ S, 57° 31′ E), located at 560 m elevation in Mauritius, was analyzed for microfossils. Eight radiocarbon ages show the pollen record reflects environmental and climatic change of the last ca. 38 cal ka BP. The record shows that the island was continuously covered by forest with Erica heath (Philippia) in the uplands. Cyperaceous reedswamp with Pandanus trees was abundant in the coastal lowlands as well as locally in the waterlogged crater. The record shows changes in climatic humidity (wet from 38.0 to 22.7 cal ka BP, drier from 22.7 to 10.6 cal ka BP, and wetter again from 10.6 cal ka BP to recent) as the main response to climate change. A high turnover in montane forest species is evidenced at 22.7 cal ka BP and at the start of the Holocene. The limited altitudinal ranges in the mountains of Mauritius (maximum altitude 828 m), and changing humidity being more important than changing temperature, suggests that in response to climate change a reassortment in taxonomic composition of montane forests might be equally important as displacement of forest types to new altitudinal intervals. We found weak impact of the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and data suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole is a more important driver for climatic change in the southwest Indian Ocean. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

To Move or not to Move: Community Members’ Reaction to Surface Mining Activities in the Upper West Region of Ghana

Abstract

Despite the impact of mining-induced environmental change on community livability, we know little about how disparities in knowledge of health risks associated with mining influence residents’ response, especially in an already environmentally stressed context. Guided by theoretical insights from solastalgia, we examined residents’ decision to relocate due to increasing gold mining activities in the fragile Northern Savannah Ecological Zone of Ghana. Fitting complementary log-log regression models to cross-sectional data from the Upper West Region (UWR) of Ghana, we found that residents with limited knowledge of potential health impacts of mining and those who believe mining activities were not meeting environmental standards were more likely to consider relocating. Given the centrality of land in community health and wellbeing in the UWR, Ghana’s mining guidelines should promote local participation in the regulation of mining activities and guarantee the rights of indigenes to livable native lands.     

Fluid escape features as relevant players in the enhancement of seafloor stability?

Fluid migration within the sedimentary column contributes significantly to slope failure and pockmark formation and can be an effective triggering mechanism to generate submarine landslides. Pockmarks are thus commonly listed among geohazards. Contrary to these accepted notions, we propose here an alternative view of pockmarks with an example from the Eastern Niger Submarine Delta: Pockmarks and associated chimneys may increase or modify the shear strength of sedimentary layers and locally enhance seafloor stability. The analysis of two 3D seismic volumes shows that a landslide deposit divides into two branches around a cluster of three pockmark chimneys, interpreted to impede its further development. The morphological characteristics of a slide constrained by fluid seepage features show the potential role of fluid escape in marine sediment strengthening.     

Weak numerical comparability of ISO-7027-compliant nephelometers. Ramifications for turbidity measurement applications

Nephelometric turbidity, a measure of light scattering by particles suspended in water, is commonly used for indicating water clarity or suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration. Different turbidity sensors have long been known to respond differently to the same suspensions. Design standards have been introduced to improve comparability of turbidity sensors, notably the ISO-7027 standard adopted by a number of manufacturers. We compared six ISO-7027-compliant nephelometers in river silt, kaolinite (layer clay) and algae-laden pond water, with rigorous tank experiments over a wide (100-fold) concentration range. The responses of four different field-type (in situ) and two cuvette instruments, all calibrated to the same freshly made formazin standards, were very strongly linearly correlated, but ranged about twofold in magnitude. Apparently, even sensors meeting the same design standard (ISO-7027) cannot be relied on to output numerically similar formazin nephelometric unit (FNU) values. This weak numerical comparability highlights the futility of treating turbidity as an absolute quantity, for example in environmental standards or studies of fine SPM effects on aquatic life. Indeed, reporting of turbidity in informal units such as FNU is best avoided. Turbidity records should be converted, by site-specific calibrations, to quantities of ultimate interest such as SPM concentration or total phosphorus. For performance monitoring of field nephelometers, we advocate routine site-specific calibration, not to formazin, but to the light beam attenuation coefficient (beam-c; units: m⁻¹). Beam-c is a proper (SI) physical quantity that can be precisely measured by beam transmissometry, as in our experiments, and is accurately convertible to visual clarity.     

Numerical upper bounds to the ultimate load bearing capacity of three-dimensional reinforced concrete structures

This contribution is addressing the ultimate limit state design of massive three-dimensional reinforced concrete structures based on a finite-element implementation of yield design theory. The strength properties of plain concrete are modeled either by means of a tension cutoff Mohr Coulomb or a Rankine condition, while the contribution of the reinforcing bars is taken into account by means of a homogenization method. This homogenization method can either represent regions of uniformly distributed steel rebars smeared into the concrete domain, but it can also be extended to model single rebars diluted into a larger region, thereby simplifying mesh generation and mesh size requirements in this region. The present paper is mainly focused on the implementation of the upper bound kinematic approach formulated as a convex minimization problem. The retained strength condition for the plain concrete and homogenized reinforced regions are both amenable to a formulation involving positive semidefinite constraints. The resulting semidefinite programming problems can, therefore, be solved using state-of-the-art dedicated solvers. The whole computational procedure is applied to some illustrative examples, where the implementation of both static and kinematic methods produces a relatively accurate bracketing of the exact failure load for this kind of structures.