Selecting time windows of seismic phases and noise for engineering seismology applications: a versatile methodology and algorithm

Seismic signal windowing is the preliminary step for many analysis procedures in engineering seismology (standard spectral ratio, quality factor, general inversion techniques, etc.). Moreover a noise window is often necessary for the data quality control through the signal-to-noise verification. Selecting the noise window can be challenging when large heterogeneous datasets are considered, especially when they include short pre-event noise signals. This study proposes a fully automatic and configurable (i.e., with default parameters that can also be user-defined) algorithm to windowing the noise and the P, S, coda and full signal once the P-wave (T _P ) and S-wave (T _S ) first arrivals are known. An application example is given on a KiK-net dataset. A Matlab language implementation of this algorithm is proposed as an online resource.     

What dynamics drive future wind scenarios for coastal upwelling off Peru and Chile?

The dynamics of the Peru–Chile upwelling system (PCUS) are primarily driven by alongshore wind stress and curl, like in other eastern boundary upwelling systems. Previous studies have suggested that upwelling-favorable winds would increase under climate change, due to an enhancement of the thermally-driven cross-shore pressure gradient. Using an atmospheric model on a stretched grid with increased horizontal resolution in the PCUS, a dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios from a global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is performed to investigate the processes leading to sea-surface wind changes. Downscaled winds associated with present climate show reasonably good agreement with climatological observations. Downscaled winds under climate change show a strengthening off central Chile south of 35°S (at 30°S–35°S) in austral summer (winter) and a weakening elsewhere. An alongshore momentum balance shows that the wind slowdown (strengthening) off Peru and northern Chile (off central Chile) is associated with a decrease (an increase) in the alongshore pressure gradient. Whereas the strengthening off Chile is likely due to the poleward displacement and intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone, the slowdown off Peru may be associated with increased precipitation over the tropics and associated convective anomalies, as suggested by a vorticity budget analysis. On the other hand, an increase in the land–sea temperature difference is not found to drive similar changes in the cross-shore pressure gradient. Results from another atmospheric model with distinct CGCM forcing and climate scenarios suggest that projected wind changes off Peru are sensitive to concurrent changes in sea surface temperature and rainfall.     

Submesoscale tidal eddies in the wake of coral islands and reefs: satellite data and numerical modelling

Interaction of tidal flow with a complex topography and bathymetry including headlands, islands, coral reefs and shoals create a rich submesoscale field of tidal jets, vortices, unsteady wakes, lee eddies and free shear layers, all of which impact marine ecology. A unique and detailed view of the submesoscale variability in a part of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, Australia, that includes a number of small islands was obtained by using a “stereo” pair of 2-m-resolution visible-band images that were acquired just 54 s apart by the WorldView-3 satellite. Near-surface current and vorticity were extracted at a 50-m-resolution from those data using a cross-correlation technique and an optical-flow method, each yielding a similar result. The satellite-derived data are used to test the ability of the second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve ice-ocean model (SLIM), an unstructured-mesh, finite element model for geophysical and environmental flows, to reproduce the details of the currents in the region. The model succeeds in simulating the large-scale (> 1 km) current patterns, such as the main current and the width and magnitude of the jets developing in the gaps between the islands. Moreover, the order of magnitude of the vorticity and the occurrence of some vortices downstream of the islands are correctly reproduced. The smaller scales (< 500 m) are resolved by the model, although various discrepancies with the data are observed. The smallest scales (< 50 m) are unresolved by both the model- and image-derived velocity fields. This study shows that high-resolution models are able to a significant degree to simulate accurately the currents close to a rugged coast. Very-high-resolution satellite oceanography stereo images offer a new way to obtain snapshots of currents near a complex topography that has reefs, islands and shoals, and is a potential resource that could be more widely used to assess the predictive ability of coastal circulation models.     

Scattering and diffraction of plane P-waves in a 2-D elastic half-space Ⅱ:shallow arbitrary shaped canyon

Scattering and Diffraction of elastic in-plane P- and SV- waves by a surface topography such as an elastic canyon at the surface of a half-space is a classical problem which has been studied by earthquake engineers and strong-motion seismologists for over forty years. The case of out-of-plane SH waves on the same elastic canyon that is semi-circular in shape on the half-space surface is the first such problem that was solved by analytic closed form solutions over forty years ago by Trifunac. The corresponding case of in-plane P- and SV-waves on the same circular canyon is a much more complicated problem because, the in-plane P- and SV- scattered waves have different wave speeds and together they must have zero normal and shear stresses at the half-space surface. It is not until recently in 2014 that analytic solution for such problem is found by the author in the work of Lee and Liu. This paper uses the technique of Lee and Liu of defining these stress-free scattered waves to solve the problem of the scattered and diffraction of these in-plane waves on an almost-circular surface canyon that is arbitrary in shape.     

Groundwater—Surface waters interactions at slope and catchment scales: implications for landsliding in clay‐rich slopes

Understanding water infiltration and transfer in soft‐clay shales slopes is an important scientific issue, especially for landsliding. Geochemical investigations are carried out at the Super‐Sauze and Draix‐Laval landslides, both developed in the Callovo‐Oxfordian black marls, with the objective to define the origin of the groundwater. In situ investigations, soil leaching experiments and geochemical modeling are combined to identify the boundaries of the hydrological systems. At Super‐Sauze, the observations indicate that an external water flow occurs in the upper part of the landslide at the contact between the weathered black marls and the overlying formations, or at the landslide basement through a fault network. Such external origin of water is not observed at the local scale of the Draix‐Laval landslide but is detected at the catchment scale with the influence of deep waters in the streamwater quality of low river flows. Hydrogeological conceptual models are proposed emphasizing the role of the interactions between local (slope) and regional (catchment) flow systems. The observations suggest that this situation is a common case in the Alpine area. Expected consequences of the regional flows on slope stability are discussed in term of rise of pore water pressures and physicochemical weathering of the clay shales.     

CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part II: projected climate

This is the second of the two-part paper series on the analysis and evaluation of the Fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation of contemporary climate as well as IPCC, AR5 Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios projections of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) Climate. In the first part (Otieno and Anyah in Clim Dyn, 2012) we focused on the historical simulations, whereas this second part primarily focuses on future projections based on the two scenarios. Six Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 archive have been used to characterize projected changes in seasonal and annual mean precipitation, temperature and the hydrological cycle by the middle of twenty-first century over the GHA region, based on IPCC, 5th Assessment Report (AR5) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Nearly all the models outputs analyzed reproduce the correct mean annual cycle of precipitation, with some biases among the models in capturing the correct peak of precipitation cycle, more so, March–April–May (MAM) seasonal rainfall over the equatorial GHA region. However, there is significant variation among models in projected precipitation anomalies, with some models projecting an average increase as others project a decrease in precipitation during different seasons. The ensemble mean of the ESMs indicates that the GHA region has been experiencing a steady increase in both precipitation and temperature beginning in the early 1980s and 1970s respectively in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Going by the ensemble means, temperatures are projected to steadily increase uniformly in all the seasons at a rate of 0.3/0.5 °C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios over northern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/3 °C by the middle of the century. On the other hand, temperatures will likely increase at a rate of 0.3/0.4 °C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios in both equatorial and southern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/2.5 °C by the middle of twenty-first century. Nonetheless, projected precipitation increase varied across seasons and sub-regions. With the exception of the equatorial region, that is projected to experience precipitation increase during DJF season, most sub-regions are projected to experience precipitation increase within their peak seasons, with the highest rate of increase experienced during DJF and OND seasons over southern and equatorial GHA regions respectively. Notably, as precipitation increases, the deficit (E < P) between evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) increased over the years, with a negatively skewed distribution. This generally implies that there is a high likelihood of an increased deficit in local moisture supply. This remarkable change in the general hydrological cycle (i.e. deficit in local moisture) is projected to be also coincident with intensified westerly anomaly influx from the Congo basin into the region. However, better understanding of the detailed changes in hydrological cycle will require comprehensive water budget analyses that require daily or sub-daily variables, and was not a specific focus of the present study.     

Modeling the impacts of reforestation on future climate in West Africa

This study investigates the potential impacts of reforestation in West Africa on the projected regional climate in the near two decades (2031–2050) under the SRES A1B scenario. A regional climate model (RegCM3) forced with a global circulation model (ECHAM5) simulations was used for the study. The study evaluates the capability of the regional model in simulating the present-day climate over West Africa, projects the future climate over the region and investigates impacts of seven hypothetical reforestation options on the projected future climate. Three of these reforestation options assume zonal reforestation over West Africa (i.e., over the Sahel, Savanna and Guinea), while the other four assume random reforestation over Nigeria. With the elevated GHGs (A1B scenario), a warmer and drier climate is projected over West Africa in 2031–2050. The maximum warming (+2.5°C) and drying (?2?mm?day^?1) occur in the western part of the Sahel because the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) flow is stronger and deflects the cool moist air more eastward, thereby lowering the warming and drying in the eastern part. In the simulations, reforestation reduces the projected warming and drying over the reforested zones but increases them outside the zones because it influences the northward progression of WAM in summer. It reduces the speed of the flow by weakening the temperature gradient that drives the flow and by increasing the surface drag on the flow over the reforested zone. Hence, in summer, the reforestation delays the onset of monsoon flow in transporting cool moist air over the area located downwind of the reforested zone, consequently enhancing the projected warming and drying over the area. The impact of reforesting Nigeria is not limited to the country; while it lowers the warming over part of the country (and over Togo), it increases the warming over Chad and Cameroon. This study, therefore, suggests that using reforestation to mitigate the projected future climate change in West Africa could have both positive and negative impacts on the regional climate, reducing temperature in some places and increasing it in others. Hence, reforestation in West Africa requires a mutual agreement among the West African nations because the impacts of reforestation do not recognize political boundaries.     

Observation and numerical modeling of tidal dune dynamics

Tidal sand dune dynamics is observed for two tidal cycles in the Arcachon tidal inlet, southwest France. An array of instruments is deployed to measure bathymetric and current variations along dune profiles. Based on the measurements, dune crest horizontal and vertical displacements are quantified and show important dynamics in phase with tidal currents. We observed superimposed ripples on the dune stoss side and front, migrating and changing polarity as tidal currents reverse. A 2D RANS numerical model is used to simulate the morphodynamic evolution of a flat non-cohesive sand bed submitted to a tidal current. The model reproduces the bed evolution until a field of sand bedforms is obtained that are comparable with observed superimposed ripples in terms of geometrical dimensions and dynamics. The model is then applied to simulate the dynamics of a field of large sand dunes of similar size as the dunes observed in situ. In both cases, simulation results compare well with measurements qualitatively and quantitatively. This research allows for a better understanding of tidal sand dune and superimposed ripple morphodynamics and opens new perspectives for the use of numerical models to predict their evolution.