Variability of annual precipitation in Sweden

Summary Different measures of variability of precipitation are discussed and it is concluded that it is preferable to apply therelative intersequential variability in cases when overall trends are feared in the records. 127 stations in Sweden have been studied for the period 1901–1950 as to the relative interannual variability of precipitation. For a selection of these stations other measures have also been calculated and a comparison has been made between the coefficient of variation and the intersequential variability. As the relation between these measures varies with the existence of serial correlations in the records the serial correlation coefficient for a lag of one element has been calculated. The value of the coefficient has indicated the existence of trends in certain areas of Sweden generally in agreement with earlier investigations byÅngström.The geographical distribution of the relative interannual variability in Sweden is discussed and also the distribution of anomalies of relative variability compared with the world's normal curve completed byConrad. It is shown that the relationship between relative variability and precipitation amount for Swedish stations can be expressed by a hyperbolic function deviating fromConrad's world normal curve only by an additive constant.

---

Zusammenfassung Der Verfasser erörtert verschiedene Maße für die Variabilität des Niederschlages und kommt zu der Feststellung, daß in den Fällen, in denen eine einseitige Tendenz in den Beobachtungsreihen zu befürchten ist, die Verwendung derrelativen reiheninternen Variabilität am geeignetsten ist. 127 Stationen in Schweden sind für die Periode 1901–1950 im Hinblick auf die relative interannuelle Variabilität des Niederschlags untersucht worden. Für eine Auswahl dieser Stationen wurden auch andere Maße berechnet und der Schwankungskoeffizient mit der reiheninternen Variabilität verglichen. Da die Beziehung zwischen diesen Maßen mit dem Auftreten von Serienkorrelationen in der Beobachtungsreihe variiert, wurde der Serienkorrelationskoeffizient für eine Verschiebung eines Elements berechnet. Die erhaltenen Werte des Koeffizienten deuten auf das Vorhandensein gesetzmäßiger Tendenzen in gewissen Gebieten Schwedens hin und stehen im allgemeinen in guter Übereinstimmung mit älteren Untersuchungen vonÅngström.Die geographische Verteilung der relativen interannuellen Variabilität in Schweden sowie die Verteilung der Anomalien der relativen Variabilität, verglichen mit der vonConrad aufgestellten Weltnormalkurve, werden erörtert. Schlie\lich wird gezeigt, daß es möglich ist, den Zusammenhang zwischen relativer Variabilität und Niederschlagsmenge für schwedische Stationen durch eine hyperbolische Funktion zu beschreiben, die vonConrads Weltnormalkurve nur durch eine additive Konstante abweicht.

---

Résumé L'auteur mentionne différentes mesures de la variabilité des précipitations et conclut qu'il est préférable d'appliquer la variabilité relative interséquentielle lorsqu'une tendance unilatérale des séries d'observations est à craindre. Il a étudié la variabilité relative interannuelle des précipitations pour 127 stations suédoises (1901/50) ainsi que d'autres mesures de variabilité pour un choix restreint de stations et il a comparé le coefficient de variation à la variabilité relative interséquentielle. Comme la relation entre ces mesures varie avec l'existence de corrélations de série dans les séries d'observations, le coefficient de corrélation de série a été calculé pour un déplacement d'un terme; la valeur de ce coefficient indique l'existence de tendances générales dans certaines régions de Suède, ce qui confirme les résultats anciens deÅngström.La distribution géographique de la variabilité relative interannuelle en Suède ainsi que celle des anomalies de la variation relative comparée à la courbe normale mondiale dressée parConrad fait l'objet d'un examen. Enfin on montre qu'il est possible d'exprimer la relation entre la variabilité relative et la quantité de précipitations en Suède par une fonction hyperbolique qui ne diffère de la courbe normale deConrad que par une constante additive.

---

---

With 5 Figures

---

Dedicated to Dr.Anders K. Ångström on the occasion of his 70th birthday.     

The Byers Basin: Jurassic-Cretaceous tectonic and depositional evolution of the forearc deposits of the South Shetland Islands and its implications for the northern Antarctic Peninsula

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the Jurassic–Cretaceous stratigraphic evolution of fore-arc deposits exposed along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. In the South Shetland Islands, Upper Jurassic deep-marine sediments are uncomformably overlain by a Lower Cretaceous volcaniclastic sequence that crops out on Livingston, Snow and Low islands. U-Pb zircon ages are presented for the upper Anchorage Formation (153.1 ± 1.7 Ma) and the Cape Wallace granodiorite of Low Island (137.1 ± 1.7 Ma) as well as ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of 136–139 Ma for Low Island andesites. Data are also presented for a U-Pb age of 109.0 ± 1.4 Ma for the upper volcanic succession of Snow Island. In combination with published stratigraphy, these data provide a refined chrono- and litho-stratigraphic framework for the deposits herein referred to as the Byers Basin. Tentative correlation is explored with previously described deposits on Adelaide and Alexander islands, which could suggest further continuation of the Byers Basin towards the south. We also discuss possible correlation of the Byers Basin with the Larsen Basin, a sequence that shows the evolution of foreland to back-arc deposits more or less contemporaneously with the fore-arc to intra-arc evolution of the Byers Basin.     

Preliminary Rock-Slope-Susceptibility Assessment Using GIS and the SMR Classification

This paper aims to examine the impact of large-scale structuraladjustments (like the Greater Dhaka Flood Protection Project, GDFPP) on local living environment.It focuses the importance of environmental factors in flood hazard mitigation, and examines theenvironmental attitudes of the floodplain residents arising from the large-scale structural adjustments.Based on `perceived natural hazard research perspectives', this paper examines: (i) the reasons for persistentfloodplain occupation, and (ii) the importance of environmental factors in the choice, motivations and decision-makingof floodplain residents.This research used data collected from 300 households situated inthe eastern part of Dhaka. The face-to-face household survey data provided individuals' responses to a structuredquestionnaire on hazards and environment. Survey concerned urban floodplains, and looked fordata on housing, household characteristics, and residents' attitudes. Results of interview surveys wereused to: (i) explore the reasons of floodplain occupation, and (ii) residents' attitudes to tolerable levelof flood risk and willingness to accept environmental change resulting from the proposed structural embankments inthe eastern perimeter of Dhaka City, Bangladesh.Findings revealed that floodplain occupation (by theindividuals' decision-making) was a result of overall reaction to the Government's structuraladjustment policies that resulted from institutional, locational and socio-economic factors. The attitude survey results provided residents' perception to hazards and environment to be dependenton the socio-economic factors – but in a complex manner, many factors are interrelated.In addition to support for structural embankments, the study sample displayed a common concernand widespread environmental awareness. In terms of any `trade-off' between thebenefits (resources) from the embankments and costs (hazards) due to the detrimental impact on environment, the residents of Dhaka, despite some concern forsacrificing embankments for environment, tended to show a generalconsensus for embankments.     

The Huelva (Spain) Tsunami-Ready Station and Its Interaction with Storm Emma (March 2018)

Abstract

The sea level station operating since 1996 at Mazagón (Huelva, Spain) has been progressively upgraded to fit tsunami warning requirements, due to its location in one of the main regions at risk. Its radar water level sensor was complemented in 2017, with the addition of a pressure sensor. The performance of both sea level sensors and their response to sea level oscillations, at different frequencies, is assessed. Particular emphasis is put on the effect of extreme events, such as Storm Emma, when alternative methods to obtain 1-min data are tested, in contrast to the one based on arithmetic means. The overall differences are small, for the whole period of study (centered-root-mean-square-error below 1?cm, for 5-min, and hourly data; similar tidal parameters and sea level oscillations with periods between 30?s and 5?min). However, during Storm Emma, the pressure sensor presents sensibly lower readings than the radar, with the centered-root-mean-square-error rising to 80?mm on the March 2^nd 2018. A new method to compute 1-min data, based on medians, reduced this value to 10?mm for the same day.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Thermochronology and exhumation rates of granitic intrusions at Mesa Central,Mexico

ABSTRACT

The Mesa Central of Mexico (MC) is an elevated plateau located 2000 m above sea level in central Mexico, where intrusions outcrop that register the history of exhumation-erosion occurring during the Late Cretaceous-Paleogene. The tectonic history of the region records formation of the Late Cretaceous-Paleogene ‘Mexican orogen’; this was followed by extension of the entire region and several plutons were then exhumed. The age and magnitude of the crustal uplift and erosion occurring during exhumation has not been addressed to date. Therefore, this study reports the crystallization and cooling ages of two plutons, the Tesorera Granodiorite and the Comanja Granite, and estimates their emplacement depths. Based on these data, the exhumation age of the Tesorera Granodiorite is estimated to be between ~73 Ma and ~63 Ma at an exhumation rate of ~528 m/m. y. and that of the Comanja Granite is 52 Ma and 48 Ma at an exhumation rate of ~2500 m/m. y. Exhumation-erosion event of the Tesorera Granodiorite was located on the trace of the San Luis-Tepehuanes Fault System and that of the Comanja Granite on the a trace of the El Bajío Fault System. Furthermore, the high exhumation rate in the Comanja Granite suggests that gravitational collapse played an important role during exhumation.     

Hydrogeochemistry of fluoride in the Quequen river basin: natural pollutants distribution in the argentine pampa

Fluoride pollution is a widespread problem in Argentina, as it is in many areas of the World. Former investigations have demonstrated that the dissolution of volcanic glass disseminated in the loess-like sediments is the main source of fluoride in the Argentine pampas. Nevertheless, fluoride distribution is erratic and the factors controlling it are not yet well-known. A large amount of hydrochemical data collected in the Quequen Grande river catchment is used in order to contribute to the understanding of fluoride distribution and mobility in groundwater in the Argentine pampas. The Quequen Grande river catchment is 10,000 km². It extends between two low hills ranges of Precambrian metamorphic rocks and sedimentary Paleozoic rocks, filled by a thick sequence of Cenozoic sediments, mainly silts and silt-clayed, with sand layers. These sediments form a multilayer phreatic aquifer, which is recharged from precipitation infiltration, discharging through streams directly into the sea. Fluoride concentration in surface water (n = 353) ranges between 0 and 6.5 mg/l, with an average value of 2.14 mg/l. Groundwater concentration (n = 135) is from 0 up to 5.7 mg/l, with an average of 1.84 mg/l. Considering the statistic distribution of fluoride, two groups of samples can be determined. A dominant group between 0 and 3 mg/l, with a mean value around 1.5 mg/l, corresponding to samples widely distributed in the catchment; and a second one group with fluoride contents between 3 and 6 mg/l, corresponding to a smaller area in the central-west border. Two different sources are proposed. Volcanic glass dissolution is responsible for dominant values in the catchment, while the weathering of biotite from the Paleozoic bedrock can be assumed to account for the higher concentrations in the second group.     

On sweeping frequency impedance measurements

Summary The current spectral density I() dependence on the width of the frequency band and sweep period is studied. The relation between the required accuracy of measurement an the optional parameters of the sweeping process is formulated.