Flood simulation using the gauge‐adjusted radar rainfall and physics‐based distributed hydrologic model

This paper reports the results of an investigation into flood simulation by areal rainfall estimated from the combination of gauged and radar rainfalls and a rainfall–runoff model on the Anseong‐cheon basin in the southern part of Korea. The spatial and temporal characteristics and behaviour of rainfall are analysed using various approaches combining radar and rain gauges: (1) using kriging of the rain gauge alone; (2) using radar data alone; (3) using mean field bias (MFB) of both radar and rain gauges; and (4) using conditional merging technique (CM) of both radar and rain gauges. To evaluate these methods, statistics and hyetograph for rain gauges and radar rainfalls were compared using hourly radar rainfall data from the Imjin‐river, Gangwha, rainfall radar site, Korea. Then, in order to evaluate the performance of flood estimates using different rainfall estimation methods, rainfall–runoff simulation was conducted using the physics‐based distributed hydrologic model, Vflo^?. The flood runoff hydrograph was used to compare the calculated hydrographs with the observed one. Results show that the rainfall field estimated by CM methods improved flood estimates, because it optimally combines rainfall fields representing actual spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian and multivariate methods applied to favorability quantification in Recôncavo Basin and Ribeira Belt, Brazil

A methology to define favorable areas in petroleum and mineral exploration is applied, which consists in weighting the exploratory variables, in order to characterize their importance as exploration guides. The exploration data are spatially integrated in the selected area to establish the association between variables and deposits, and the relationships among distribution, topology, and indicator pattern of all variables. Two methods of statistical analysis were compared. The first one is the Weights of Evidence Modeling, a conditional probability approach (Agterberg, 1989a), and the second one is the Principal Components Analysis (Pan, 1993). In the conditional method, the favorability estimation is based on the probability of deposit and variable joint occurrence, with the weights being defined as natural logarithms of likelihood ratios. In the multivariate analysis, the cells which contain deposits are selected as control cells and the weights are determined by eigendecomposition, being represented by the coefficients of the eigenvector related to the system’s largest eigenvalue. The two techniques of weighting and complementary procedures were tested on two case studies: 1. Recôncavo Basin, Northeast Brazil (for Petroleum) and 2. Itaiacoca Formation of Ribeira Belt, Southeast Brazil (for Pb-Zn Mississippi Valley Type deposits). The applied methdology proved to be easy to use and of great assistance to predict the favorability in large areas, particularly in the initial phase of exploration programs.     

越南西北部莱州地区新生代煌斑岩地球化学特征及其成因

越南西北部菜州地区出露的新生代煌斑岩岩脉对理解特提斯造山带东段的深部岩石圈特征和演化具有重要的地质意义.本文报道莱州地区煌斑岩的元素地球化学和Sr-Nd-Pb同位素组成特征,探讨其岩石成因.该地区煌斑岩属于钙碱性,钾质-超钾质煌斑岩特征.地球化学特征对比表明,菜州地区煌斑岩与哀牢山断裂带碱性岩具有相似的地球化学特征,但与海南和越南南部火山岩存在明显差异.分析结果表明,煌斑岩具有高的87Sr/86Sr比值、低143Nd/144Nd比值和高放射性成因Pb同位素组成特征.岩石的微量元素组成特征指示,形成煌斑岩的地幔源区可能经历过流体交代作用或沉积物组分的加入.低208Pb*/206Pb*比值暗示地幔源区富集事件是近期发生的,可能与晚古生代-早中生代印支地块向扬子地块俯冲事件有关.     

Predicting ordinary kriging errors caused by surface roughness and dissectivity

The magnitude of kriging errors varies in accordance with the surface properties. The purpose of this paper is to determine the association of ordinary kriging (OK) estimated errors with the local variability of surface roughness, and to analyse the suitability of probabilistic models for predicting the magnitude of OK errors from surface parameters. This task includes determining the terrain parameters in order to explain the variation in the magnitude of OK errors. The results of this research indicate that the higher order regression models, with complex interaction terms, were able to explain 95 per cent of the variation in the OK error magnitude using the least number of predictors. In addition, the results underscore the importance of the role of the local diversity of relief properties in increasing or decreasing the magnitude of interpolation errors. The newly developed dissectivity parameters provide useful information for terrain analysis. Our study also provides constructive guides to understanding the local variation of interpolation errors and their dependence on surface dissectivity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shear wave velocity measurements and soil–pile system identifications in dynamic centrifuge tests

This paper presents a pre-shaking technique for measuring the $V_{s}$ profile of sand deposits and determining the natural frequencies of the sand bed and soil-structure system in a centrifuge model at an acceleration of 80 g. The pre-shaking technique is a non-destructive test. It uses a shaker as a wave generation source and a vertical array of accelerometers embedded in the sand bed and the accelerometers attached to the pile head as receivers. The pre-shaking method can be easily used for in-flight subsurface exploration ( $V_{s}$ profile measurements) and in-flight system identification of soil-structure systems (natural frequency measurements). A soil–pile centrifuge model is used to demonstrate the versatility of pre-shaking during a routine centrifuge shaking table test. This paper discusses the testing setup, testing procedures, related SI techniques, and signal processing for the soil–pile system. The natural frequencies measured by the pre-shaking tests are consistent with theory-based results. This technique can be conducted at any time before and after major earthquake events occur in a test.     

Waterfall notch-filtering for restoration of acoustic backscatter records from Admiralty Bay,Antarctica

A series of multibeam sonar surveys were conducted from 2009 to 2013 around Admiralty Bay, Shetland Islands, Antarctica. These surveys provided a detailed bathymetric model that helped understand and characterize the bottom geology of this remote area. Unfortunately, the acoustic backscatter records registered during these bathymetric surveys were heavily contaminated with noise and motion artifacts. These artifacts persisted in the backscatter records despite the fact that the proper acquisition geometry and the necessary offsets and delays were applied during the survey and in post-processing. These noisy backscatter records were very difficult to interpret and to correlate with gravity-core samples acquired in the same area. In order to address this issue, a directional notch-filter was applied to the backscatter waterfall in the along-track direction. The proposed filter provided better estimates for the backscatter strength of each sample by considerably reducing residual motion artifacts. The restoration of individual samples was possible since the waterfall frame of reference preserves the acquisition geometry. Then, a remote seafloor characterization procedure based on an acoustic model inversion was applied to the restored backscatter samples, generating remote estimates of acoustic impedance. These remote estimates were compared to Multi Sensor Core Logger measurements of acoustic impedance obtained from gravity core samples. The remote estimates and the Core Logger measurements of acoustic impedance were comparable when the shallow seafloor was homogeneous. The proposed waterfall notch-filtering approach can be applied to any sonar record, provided that we know the system ping-rate and sampling frequency.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

Effect of self-weight consolidation on a hydro-sedimentological model for the Río de la Plata estuary

The effect of the consolidation process on the morphodynamics and fine sediment dynamics of the Río de la Plata estuary is explored through a circulation-wave-sediment transport model. The consolidation model is calibrated based on settling column experimental data. Different simulations are done in order to initialize the mud layer distribution and to investigate the impact of different erosion parameter assumptions on the modeled sediment dynamics. Finally a two-year simulation is done with and without the consolidation process and realistic hydrodynamic forcings. Considering the consolidation process, the model correctly reproduces measured vertical density profiles in the Montevideo Bay access channel. The simulated suspended sediment dynamics behavior in Montevideo Bay with the consolidation process provides a more realistic deposition pattern in regard to the dredging activities.