Fitting concentration and load rating curves with generalized linear models

Generalized linear models may be used as a systematic and flexible alternative to existing practices in fitting sediment or solute concentration and load rating curves. Through widely available statistical software they offer a one‐step solution to the common and awkward problem that a bias correction is needed when estimating total loads. In particular, using a logarithmic link function has an advantage over logarithmic transformation of concentration or load, as generalized linear models return predictions directly on the original measured scale; there is thus no need for back‐transformation or subsequent correction factors. Example analyses are given for suspended sediment concentration for an upland stream in the Northern Pennines and for phosphorus load for the Illinois River. General criteria for choosing models and good practice in the use of figures of model merit and of residual plots are also discussed in detail. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visible–near infrared spectral indices for mapping mineralogy and chemistry with OSIRIS‐REx

The primary objective of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS‐REx) mission is to return to Earth a pristine sample of carbonaceous material from the primitive asteroid (101955) Bennu. To support compositional mapping of Bennu as part of sample site selection and characterization, we tested 95 spectral indices on visible to near infrared laboratory reflectance data from minerals and carbonaceous meteorites. Our aim was to determine which indices reliably identify spectral features of interest. Most spectral indices had high positive detection rates when applied to spectra of pure, single‐component materials. The meteorite spectra have fewer and weaker absorption features and, as a result, fewer detections with the spectral indices. Indices targeting absorptions at 0.7 and 2.7–3 μm, which are attributable to hydrated minerals, were most successful for the meteorites. Based on these results, we identified a set of 17 indices that are most likely to be useful at Bennu. These indices detect olivines, pyroxenes, carbonates, water/OH‐bearing minerals, serpentines, ferric minerals, and organics. Particle size and albedo are known to affect band depth but had a negligible impact on interpretive success with spectral indices. Preliminary analysis of the disk‐integrated Bennu spectrum with these indices is consistent with expectations given the observed absorption near 3 μm. Our study prioritizes spectral indices to be used for OSIRIS‐REx spectral analysis and mapping and informs the reliability of all index‐derived data products, including a science value map for sample site selection.     

Air transport cruise altitude restrictions to minimize contrail formation

While quantification of the effects of NO_x and water vapor is still at an early stage there is evidence that contrail formation could make a significant contribution to global warming. This paper builds on previous research that analyzed a policy of restricting air transport cruise altitudes to eliminate contrail formation. Our previous work [Transport. Res. D 7(6) (2002) 451], examined altitude restrictions in European airspace and concluded that this could be a beneficial policy for reducing climate change impacts from aviation. Since most of the flights in European airspace are short-haul flights, this paper evaluates the trade-offs between altitude restrictions, fuel burn and journey times for longer haul flights of up to 6000 nm. Our focus is on the North Atlantic and US airspace and we examine potential contrail fraction to determine optimal cruise altitudes for reducing contrail formation. Changes in fuel burn and travel times associated with flight levels of 18,000 and 31,000 ft for different aircraft types are analyzed. We find that, in most cases, CO₂ emission increases would be unlikely to entirely counteract the benefit of possible reductions in contrail formation. For some aircraft types, the percentage increase in emitted CO₂ was found to be strongly dependent on journey length. In general, journey times appear not to be a major issue except for some aircraft types. Our results suggest that reducing aircraft cruise altitudes could be a beneficial policy for mitigating climate change impacts from the aviation sector. This is clearly dependent on aircraft type and the distances traveled, but more importantly on ambient atmospheric conditions which can vary significantly between regions and due to daily variation. This suggests that real time flight planning to minimize contrail formation should be investigated as a possible climate mitigation policy.     

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city,Romania

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day at city scale, cumulating more than 38 mil. EUR for the three cases considered.     

Hazardous weather events in the St Lawrence Valley from the French regime to Confederation: descriptive weather in historical records from Quebec City and Montreal, 1742–1869 and 1953—present

Natural Hazards - Daily weather records for the St Lawrence Valley region in Québec, Canada, exist on a continuous basis for nearly two centuries and on a more fragmentary level back to the...     

Archaeogeophysical-Based Approach for Inca Archaeology: Overview and one operational application

Even if, in recent decades, the use of remote sensing technologies (from satellite, aerial and ground) for archaeology is stepping into its golden age, in Southern America geophysics for preventive archaeology is more recent and less used than in Europe, Central America and Middle East. In this paper, we provide a brief overview and show the preliminary results obtained from the investigations conducted in Chachabamba (Peru). The archaeological area is located on a strategic terrace overlooking three Inca roads, which served the most important ceremonial centres (including Machu Picchu) of the Urubamba Valley also known as the Sacred Valley. In particular, Chachabamba investigations were conducted with two principal aims: (1) to give new impetus to archaeological research with targeted investigations aimed at improving and completing the site’s knowledge framework; (2) to experiment and validate an archaeogeophysical approach to be reapplied in other sites of the Urubamba valley, including Machu Picchu, having similar characteristics as those found in Chachabamba.     

Silicic recharge of multiple rhyolite magmas by basaltic intrusion during the 22.6 ka Okareka Eruption Episode, New Zealand

Deposits of the 22.6 ka Okareka Eruption Episode from Tarawera Volcanic Complex record the sequential and simultaneous eruption of three discrete rhyolite magmas following a silicic recharge event related to basaltic intrusion. The episode started with basaltic eruption ( 0.01 km³ magma), and rapidly changed to a plinian eruption involving a moderate temperature (750 °C), cummingtonite-bearing rhyolite magma (T1) with a volume of  0.3 km³. Hybrid basalt/rhyolite clasts demonstrate direct basaltic intrusion that helped trigger the eruption. Crystals, shards and lapilli of two other rhyolite magmas then joined the eruption sequence. They comprise a cooler (720 °C) crystal-rich biotite–hornblende rhyolite magma (T2) ( 0.3 km³), and a hotter (780 °C), crystal-poor, pyroxene–hornblende rhyolite magma (T3) ( 4.5 km³). All mid to late-stage ash units contain various mixtures of T1, T2 and T3 components with a general increase in abundance of T3 and rapid decline of T1 with time. About 4 km³ of T3 magma was extruded as lavas at the end of the episode. Contrasts in melt composition, crystal and volatile contents, and temperatures influenced viscosity and miscibility, and thus limited pre-eruption mixing of the rhyolite magmas. The eruption sequence and the restricted direct basaltic intrusion into only one magma (T1) is consistent with the rhyolites occupying separate melt pods within a large crystal-mush zone. Melt–crystal equilibria and volatile contents in melt inclusions indicate temporary magma storage depths of < 8 km. Each of the magmas display quartz crystals containing melt inclusions that are compositionally highly evolved relative to the accompanying matrix glass, and thus point to a stage of more complete crystallisation. The matrix glass, enriched in Sr and Ti, represents a re-melting event of underlying the crystal pile induced by basaltic intrusion, presumably part of the same event that erupted scoria at the start of the eruption. This recharge rhyolite melt percolated upward and hybridised with the resident melts in each of the three magma pods. The Okareka episode rhyolites contrast with other well-documented rhyolites that are either continuously or discontinuously zoned, or have been homogenised during re-activation to a uniform composition. Rapid basalt dike intrusion to shallow levels appears to have (prematurely?) triggered the Okareka rhyolites into eruption, so that their early ponding in separate melt pods has been recorded before it could be masked by mixing or stratification had amalgamation into a larger body occurred.     

Grain‐scale dependency of metamorphic reaction on crystal plastic strain

The Breaksea Orthogneiss in Fiordland, New Zealand preserves water‐poor intermediate and mafic igneous rocks that were partially recrystallized to omphacite granulite and eclogite, respectively, at P ≈ 1.8 GPa and T ≈ 850°C. Metamorphic reaction consumed plagioclase and produced grossular‐rich garnet, jadeite‐rich omphacite, clinozoisite and kyanite. The extent of metamorphic reaction, identified by major and trace element composition and microstructural features, is patchy on the grain and outcrop scale. Domains of re‐equilibration coincide with areas that exhibit higher strain suggesting a causal link between crystal plastic strain and metamorphic reaction. Quantitative orientation analysis (EBSD) identifies gradual and stepped changes in crystal lattice orientations of igneous phenocrysts that are surrounded by homophase areas of neoblasts, characterized by high grain boundary to volume ratios and little to no internal lattice distortion. The narrow, peripheral compositional modification of less deformed garnet and omphacite phenocrysts reflects limited lattice diffusion in areas that lacked three‐dimensional networks of interconnected low‐angle boundaries. Low‐angle boundaries acted as elemental pathways (pipe diffusion) that enhanced in‐grain element diffusion. The scale of pipe diffusion is pronounced in garnet relatively to clinopyroxene. Strain‐induced mineral transformation largely controlled the extent of high‐T metamorphic reaction under relatively fluid‐poor conditions.     

Spatial patterns of primary production on the shelf, slope and basin of the Western Arctic in 2002

In the spring and summer of 2002 primary production in the Chukchi Sea was measured, using ¹⁴C uptake experiments. Our cruise track encompassed the shelf and continental slope area of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas progressing into deep water over the Canada Basin. The study area experienced upwards of 90% ice cover during the spring, with ice retreating into the basin during the summer. Production in the spring was light-limited due to ice cover, with average euphotic zone production rates of <0.3 g C m⁻² d⁻¹. Values of 8 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ were observed in association with surface bloom conditions during the initial ice breakup. Considerable nutrient reduction in the surface waters took place between the spring and summer cruise, and although not observed, this was attributed to a spring bloom. Decreased ice cover and increased clarity of surface waters in the summer allowed greater light penetration. The highest rates of production during the second cruise were found at 25–30 m, coincident with the top of the nutricline. Daily euphotic zone productivity in the summer averaged 0.78 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ on the shelf and 0.32 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ on the edge of the Canada basin. These data provide an estimated annual production of 90 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ in the study area.