尼玛地震(MS 5.2)临震预测和流变构造

俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院克拉斯诺亚尔斯克科学中心特殊技术设计局Sibgatulin于2013年5月7日11时55分,将天然电磁脉冲异常信息及分析意见通报给文章第一作者曾佐勋,指出在武汉的东、西两个方向上,具有发生MS 6级左右地震的可能性。2013年5月7日22时20分,山东平原县职业中专宋松将其与宋科夫根据震兆日晕结合“七式、六形还原测震法”做出的地震预测意见通报了曾佐勋。意见中指出,2013年5月7-20日左右（甚至会在7天内）,在新疆、青海、与西藏交界附近,将发生MS 5.5~6.2的地震。在Sibgatulin和宋松等人的预测基础上,利用卫星热红外排气点观测法,曾佐勋于2013年5月8日0时54分,向宋松、王杰、潘黎黎发出预测意见。预测10日内有可能在西藏的排气点（31.5°N,89.0°E）发生MS 6.0级左右地震,并于5月8日8时34分,向3人补充了另一排气点（31°N,86°E）的观测情况。2013年5月15日18:54:30,西藏那曲尼玛县（31.6°N,86.5°E）发生MS 5.2级中强震,震源深度为10 km。此次地震的发震时间落入宋松和曾佐勋的预测窗口;震中落入曾佐勋根据第二个排气点给出的预测范围;震级基本上落入Sibgatulin、宋松、宋科夫以及曾佐勋的预测范围。尼玛地震临震预测成功的意义在于这是一次两国三方合作的范例,也进一步验证了“地震预测需要多方法的综合分析”的认识。对该地区地壳结构剖面和活动断裂研究表明,此次地震的发震断层为来多-措迈北北西向右行走滑正断层;地震能量的积聚和存储与中地壳高导低速层关系密切;西藏地区断层活动受南北向挤压、东西向拉伸的现今构造应力场控制。     

A New Analytic Integration of the Rate Equation for Batch Dissolution of Salts in the Presence of Common Ion

Following a recent suggestion of a new rate equation specifically for the batch dissolution of salts in solutions containing a common ion, this paper describes an analytic solution to its integration. The equation has been tested by dissolving 250???m gypsum- rock particles in water (26.7?g?l^?1) containing various mixtures of sodium and calcium chlorides, all at an ionic strength of 0.060?M. The model fitted the experimental curves very well and showed that the dissolution slowed slightly overall when the initial calcium concentration was increased from 0 to 0.020?M. The dissolution curves were also modelled as a simple exponential, whence the fit was comparable to that with the new equation, with the exponential rate constant varying between 0.025 and 0.019 (±0.0004) for 0 and 0.020?M initial calcium concentration, respectively. Conventional Electrolyte theory from thermodynamics is used to show that the new equation is an inevitable consequence of modelling the net rate of dissolution in terms of a back reaction that is first order with respect to the dissolved substance, as per the recently described Shrinking Object model. Moreover, it is shown how the simple exponential model (which is a well-used plot in dissolution kinetics) provides the linear end-member to an infinite number of curvilinear plots of rate of dissolution versus reaction progress developed by the new model??it is the special case where common ion is absent. The results are now judged good enough to identify a generic batch dissolution rate equation for all salts dissolving without significant complication from either contaminants or their own gaseous species, as in calcium carbonate dissolution.     

Palaeogeographic Changes at Lake Chokrak on the Kerch Peninsula,Ukraine, during the Mid‐ and Late‐Holocene

This project has reconstructed the palaeogeographic and environmental evolution of Lake Chokrak on the Kerch Peninsula, Ukraine, during the mid‐ and late‐Holocene. This record has been evaluated in association with a regional archaeological data set to explore human–environment interactions over this period. The results show major changes in the palaeogeographic setting of Lake Chokrak since the 3rd millennium B.C., when the postglacial marine transgression had started to fill the study area. Microfaunal analyses reveal the long persistence of an open marine embayment that only became separated from the Sea of Azov when a sand barrier developed during the late 2nd millennium B.C. When colonizing the Black Sea region after the 8th century B.C., the Greek settlers erected a fortification with a small settlement on a promontory that was by then a peninsula‐like headland extending into the lake. The colonists abandoned their settlement at the end of the 1st millennium B.C. when the depth of the surrounding lake decreased from 1.5 m to less than 1 m. Today, Lake Chokrak dries up completely during summer. A detailed relative sea level (RSL) curve for the northern coast of Kerch has been established. Sea level reached its highest position at the present day. Since the 3rd millennium B.C., sea level continuously rose, without any of the previously postulated regression/transgression cycles. The RSL curve indicates differential subsidence rates within short distances in relatively stable areas, exceeding 40 cm per 1000 years. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Ground Investigations for Changi East Reclamation Projects

Geotechnical ground investigation is important in all construction works particularly, land reclamation projects. The Changi East reclamation project is a mega project that involves creation of land space as large as 3,000 hectares in multiple phases between 1991 and 2005. Ground investigation plays a critical role in the Changi project which involved substantial amount of ground improvement works after reclamation by sand filling. One important aspect of the investigation was to evaluate the geotechnical characteristics of the underlying compressible soils beneath the original seabed for the selection of suitable methods of ground improvement. The other important aspect of the investigation was to characterize and verify the compactness of the reclaimed sand fill. Many types of in situ tests were extensively used in the project. The field vane shear test provides correlations between the undrained shear strength and depth for the upper and the lower marine clay strata in the Northern part and the Southern Part of the reclaimed site. Combined with laboratory undrained shear strength tests, the field vane strength profiles allow the derivation of the undrained shear strength over effective stress ratios for the upper and the lower marine clays. In addition, results from three other in situ tests, the piezocone cone penetration test, the flat dilatometer test, and the self boring pressuremeter test provided useful verification of these correlations. A field-performance based method of assessing degree of consolidation in the underlying clay was developed by combining field monitoring, laboratory testing and conventional as well as specialized in situ testing. An effective use of in situ testing methods for assessment, the outcome of ground improvement and for fill quality control in the densification of granular soils is illustrated with field observation data collected at the project site.     

A Hydrological Budget (2002–2008) for a Large Subtropical Wetland Ecosystem Indicates Marine Groundwater Discharge Accompanies Diminished Freshwater Flow

Water budget parameters are estimated for Shark River Slough (SRS), the main drainage within Everglades National Park (ENP) from 2002 to 2008. Inputs to the water budget include surface water inflows and precipitation while outputs consist of evapotranspiration, discharge to the Gulf of Mexico and seepage losses due to municipal wellfield extraction. The daily change in volume of SRS is equated to the difference between input and outputs yielding a residual term consisting of component errors and net groundwater exchange. Results predict significant net groundwater discharge to the SRS peaking in June and positively correlated with surface water salinity at the mangrove ecotone, lagging by 1 month. Precipitation, the largest input to the SRS, is offset by ET (the largest output); thereby highlighting the importance of increasing fresh water inflows into ENP for maintaining conditions in terrestrial, estuarine, and marine ecosystems of South Florida.     

UVB solar radiation climatology for Mexico

The measurement of solar B band Ultraviolet radiation (UVB) should be considered a priority in Mexico due to implications on public health throughout the country (total population, 108 million), but this is not carried out at present. Installed sensors cover only 0.12% of the country. However, there are alternative methods for estimating UVB radiation to overcome the lack of surface data. The most successful of these are based on the use of satellites for environmental monitoring. In the present work, UVB maps are constructed for the entire country using a single, daily satellite measurement of UVB at solar noon from 1978-2003. Satellite-derived values are compared with the ground measurements by a surface station located in Mexico City in order to validate the former. Wavelet spectrum analysis is employed to this end. A close correlation is observed between the two sets of data. Moreover, there is qualitative correspondence between the spatial distribution of the satellite-derived data and the surface topography. The difference resulting throughout the period mentioned is <2% of the average annual cumulative energy.     

Ocean Internal Wave Observations Using Space Shuttle and Satellite Imagery

Abstract

Space shuttle photographs and satellite radar (SAR) images provide an excellent view of high‐contrast ocean features such as internal waves, fronts, eddies, oil slicks, and cloud patterns which contain the signatures of atmospheric processes. Since ocean internal waves generate local currents which modulate surface wavelets and slicks, we have been able to detect packets of internal waves in space shuttle photographs and radar imagery of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. A global database on internal waves has been developed at our center with support from ONR and NASA, and is accessible on the Internet. The database includes visible and radar imagery. To test the database, digitally orthorectified images were used for dynamic and statistical analysis of internal waves. In the deep ocean we found the wavelength distribution to be Gaussian while in the coastal ocean it is Rayleigh. Results have also been applied to non‐linear evolution studies of ocean internal waves, atmospheric solitary waves and to estimate ocean currents.     

Chironomid assemblages in cores from multiple water depths reflect oxygen-driven changes in a deep French lake over the last 150 years

We sampled modern chironomids at multiple water depths in Lake Annecy, France, before reconstructing changes in chironomid assemblages at sub-decadal resolution in sediment cores spanning the last 150 years. The lake is a large, deep (z_max = 65 m), subalpine waterbody that has recently returned to an oligotrophic state. Comparison between the water-depth distributions of living chironomid larvae and subfossil head capsules (HC) along three surface-sediment transects indicated spatial differences in the influence of external forcings on HC deposition (e.g. tributary effects). The transect with the lowest littoral influence and the best-preserved, depth-specific chironomid community characteristics was used for paleolimnological reconstructions at various water depths. At the beginning of the twentieth century, oxygen-rich conditions prevailed in the lake, as inferred from M. contracta-type and Procladius sp. at deep-water sites (i.e. cores from 56 to 65 m) and Paracladius sp. and H. grimshawi-type in the core from 30 m depth. Over time, chironomid assemblages in cores from all three water depths converged toward the dominance of S. coracina-type, indicating enhanced hypoxia. The initial change in chironomid assemblages from the deep-water cores occurred in the 1930s, at the same time that an increase in lake trophic state is inferred from an increase in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in the sediment. In the 1950s, an assemblage change in the core from 30 m water depth reflects the rapid expansion of the hypoxic layer into the shallower region of the lake. Lake Annecy recovered its oligotrophic state in the 1990s. Chironomid assemblages, however, still indicate hypoxic conditions, suggesting that modern chironomid assemblages in Lake Annecy are decoupled from the lake trophic state. Recent increases in both TOC and the hydrogen index indicate that changes in pelagic functioning have had a strong indirect influence on the composition of the chironomid assemblage. Finally, the dramatic decrease in HC accumulation rate over time suggests that hypoxic conditions are maintained through a feedback loop, wherein the accumulation of (un-consumed) organic matter and subsequent bacterial respiration prevent chironomid re-colonization. We recommend study of sediment cores from multiple water depths, as opposed to investigation of only a single core from the deepest part of the lake, to assess the details of past ecological changes in large deep lakes.     

A study of the δ13C offset between chironomid larvae and their exuvial head capsules: implications for palaeoecology

We conducted a rearing experiment with the chironomid species Chironomus riparius to assess the relationship between the δ¹³C values of chironomid larvae and the δ¹³C values of their exuvial head capsules. Our experiment was also designed to study the extent of the trophic fractionation factor (Δ¹³C) under different dietary conditions. Three food sources were used (Tetramin, oats and corn), covering a range in δ¹³C values of 14.55 ‰. For each of the four successive instars, carbon isotope ratios were measured in larval tissues and head capsules. This approach highlighted the variability in δ¹³C for both larvae and their head capsules during larval development. Once the larvae reached the 3rd instar, their δ¹³C values were stabilised and did not significantly differ from their food δ¹³C (Δ¹³C = 0 ‰). It is probable that the variability in the δ¹³C offset during larval development reflected a difference in the carbon turnover for the chironomid cuticle compared with the whole body. At the 4th instar, the δ¹³C offset did not significantly differ between the three food sources and was ?0.9 ± 0.2 ‰. The proposed Δ¹³C and δ¹³C offset values can be considered as a first step for the reconstructions of the chironomid larvae paleo-diets with the aim of deciphering the different organic carbon sources supporting chironomid larvae productions. However, the influence of the environment (e.g. temperature, oxygen), other food sources (e.g. different nutritive values) as well as taxonomy (i.e. other chironomid species) should be assessed to strengthen the robustness of these results.