Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard along transportation lines using historical records

In this paper, a quantitative landslide hazard model is presented for transportation lines, with an example for a road and railroad alignment, in parts of Nilgiri hills in southern India. The data required for the hazard assessment were obtained from historical records available for a 21-year period from 1987 to 2007. A total of 901 landslides from cut slopes along the railroad and road alignment were included in the inventory. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, and run-out distance. To calculate landslide hazard, we estimated the total number of individual landslides per kilometer of the (rail) road for different return periods, based on the relationship between past landslides (recorded in our database) and triggering events. These were multiplied by the probability that the landslides belong to a given magnitude class. This gives the hazard for a given return period expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometer of (rail) road. The relationship between the total number of landslides and the return period was established using a Gumbel distribution model, and the probability of landslide magnitude was obtained from frequency–volume statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that the total number of landslides, from 1- to 50-year return period, varies from 56 to 197 along the railroad and from 14 to 82 along the road. In total, 18 hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The hazard scenarios derived from the model form the basis for future direct and indirect landslide risk analysis along the transportation lines. The model was validated with landslides that occurred in the year 2009.     

Preliminary Evidence for Iodate Reduction in Bottom Waters of the Gulf of Mexico During an Hypoxic Event

The distributions of iodate and total inorganic iodine concentrations in the waters on the Texas?CLouisiana shelf in April, June, and August 2004 are described. Iodine?Csalinity graphs show three-end-member mixing involving onshore and offshore surface waters and deep offshore water. The April survey showed simple mixing on the surface, but in the later surveys, iodate concentrations were often much lower than predicted by the mixing curve while those for total inorganic iodine were higher. This demonstrated both iodate reduction in the water and iodide addition, although individual samples did not show equivalent speciation changes. Hydrographically, the system consists of the estuaries of the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers as they spill onto the shelf. The waters are stratified seasonally by a robust halocline, leading to hypoxia in the bottom waters from the combined effect of restricted downward diffusion of oxygen and the sinking of the luxuriant growth of phytoplankton induced by riverine nutrient supply. The distributions of iodate and total inorganic iodine are, therefore, interpreted in terms of water?Csediment interaction as the shelf shoals to the north.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000594

A new model is suggested for the history of the Baikal Rift,in deviation from the classic two-stage evolution scenario,based on a synthesis of the available data from the Baikal Basin and revised correlation between tectonic-lithological-stratigraphic complexes(TLSC) in sedimentary sections around Lake Baikal and seismic stratigraphic sequences(SSS) in the lake sediments.Unlike the previous models,the revised model places the onset of rifting during Late Cretaceous and comprises three major stages which are subdivided into several substages.The stages and the substages are separated by events of tectonic activity and stress reversal when additional compression produced folds and shear structures.The events that mark the stage boundaries show up as gaps,unconformities,and deformation features in the deposition patterns. The earliest Late Cretaceous-Oligocene stage began long before the India-Eurasia collision in a setting of diffuse extension that acted over a large territory of Asia.The NW-SE far-field pure extension produced an NE-striking half-graben oriented along an old zone of weakness at the edge of the Siberian craton.That was already the onset of rift evolution recorded in weathered lacustrine deposits on the Baikal shore and in a wedge-shaped acoustically transparent seismic unit in the lake sediments.The second stage spanning Late Oligocene-Early Pliocene time began with a stress change when the effect from the Eocene India-Eurasia collision had reached the region and became a major control of its geodynamics.The EW and NE transpression and shear from the collisional front transformed the Late Cretaceous half-graben into a U-shaped one which accumulated a deformed layered sequence of sediments.Rifting at the latest stage was driven by extension from a local source associated with hot mantle material rising to the base of the rifted crust.The asthenospheric upwarp first induced the growth of the Baikal dome and the related change from finer to coarser molasse deposition.With time,the upwarp became a more powerful stress source than the collision,and the stress vector returned to the previous NW-SE extension that changed the rift geometry back to a half-graben. The layered Late Pliocene-Quaternary subaerial tectonic-lithological-stratigraphic and the Quaternary submarine seismic stratigraphic units filling the latest half-graben remained almost undeformed.The rifting mechanisms were thus passive during two earlier stages and active during the third stage. The three-stage model of the rift history does not rule out the previous division into two major stages but rather extends its limits back into time as far as the Maastrichtian.Our model is consistent with geological, stratigraphic,structural,and geophysical data and provides further insights into the understanding of rifting in the Baikal region in particular and continental rifting in general.     

Surficial geophysical deduction of the geomaterial and aquifer distributions at Ngor-Okpala local government area of Imo State, South Eastern Nigeria

Twenty seven vertical electrical sounding (VES) profiles surrounding four known traverses were obtained in Ngor-Okpala local government area of Imo state to examine the subsurface geomaterials and the associated groundwater potential. The VES data, constrained by borehole data, provided useful information about the subsurface hydrogeologic and lithologic conditions. From the validated interpretation, the area assessed has loamy soil, medium grained sands, well-sorted medium-grained/gravelly sands and river sand as the lithologic succession from top to the bottom of the depth penetrated. The aquifers in the area were found in the medium-grained sands and well-sorted medium-coarse-grained sands. The aquifer depth for all-season groundwater that would be devoid of draw-down can be found at a depth range of 42–50 m. The resistivity maps of selected depths exhibit sharp resistivity changes at depth due mainly to undulating subsurface topography. A map of the distribution of the kσ-values shows that good quality groundwater can be found in most parts of the area.     

The age and composition of the pre-Cenozoic basement of the Jalisco Block: implications for and relation to the Guerrero composite terrane

The Jalisco Block is thought to be part of the Guerrero terrane, but the nature and age of the underlying crystalline basement are largely unknown. We have collected a suite of schists, granitoids, and weakly metamorphosed marine sediments from various parts of the Jalisco Block including Atenguillo and Ameca, Mascota and San Sebastián, Cuale, Puerto Vallarta, Punta Mita, Yelapa, and Tomatlán. The schists range in age from 135 to 161 Ma, with many exhibiting Proterozoic and Phanerozoic zircon ages. The granitoids range in age from 65 to 90 Ma, and are calc-alkaline compositionally—similar to granitoids from the Puerto Vallarta and Los Cabos batholiths. The Jalisco granitoids also experienced similar uplift rates to granitoids from the regions to the north and south of the Jalisco Block. The marine sediments yield a maximum depositional age of 131 Ma, and also contain a significant zircon population with ages extending back to the Archean. Granitoids from this study define two age groups, even after the effects of thermal resetting and different closure temperatures are considered. The 66.8-Ma silicic ash flow tuff near Union de Tula significantly expands the extent of this Cretaceous–Paleocene age ash flow tuff unit within the Jalisco Block, and we propose calling the unit “Carmichael silicic ash flow tuff volcanic succession” in honor of Ian Carmichael. The ages of the basement schists in the Jalisco Block fully overlap with the ages of terranes of continental Mexico, and other parts of the Guerrero terrane in the south, confirming the autochthonous origin of the Jalisco Block rather than exotic arc or allochthonous origin. Geologic data, in combination with geochronologic and oxygen isotopic data, suggest the evolution of SW Mexico with an early 200–1,200-Ma passive margin, followed by steep subduction in a continental arc setting at 160–165 Ma, then shallower subduction by 135 Ma, and finally, emplacement of granitoids at 65–90 Ma.     

Mineralogical and Geochemical Constraints on the Sediment Sources of Late Stone Age Pottery from the Birimi Site,Northern Ghana

The mineralogy and bulk chemical compositions of 15 Kintampo (Late Stone Age) potsherds from the Birimi site on the Gambaga Escarpment and eight samples of local sediment were determined with the intent of characterizing these wares and identifying the material used in their manufacture. Sediment from clay pits still used by potters north of the escarpment contains iron‐rich laterite clasts (100 × XFeO_t = 100 × FeO_t/[FeO_t + Al₂O₃ + SiO₂] ≥10). Sedimentary clasts in stream sediments are relatively siliceous and iron‐poor (100 × XFeO_t < 10). Bulk geochemical data together with the compositions of lithic clasts (laterite, siltstone/sandstone) link the pottery to sediment sources, including escarpment sediments not presently used by Ghanaian potters. Fresh granite clasts found in some of the sherds were not found in the analyzed sediment samples, although some of their distinctive mineralogical constituents (e.g., variably barian alkali feldspar) are present. The analytical data suggest that pots found at Birimi were made locally by mixing escarpment sediment with clay and stream sediment brought in from below the escarpment. This contrasts with present‐day practice, whereby the pots themselves are imported. The place where Birimi pottery was made and the outcrop source of aluminous sediment (mudstone with an “escarpment” trace element signature) used in these wares, however, remain unidentified. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Comparing efficacy of different taxonomic resolutions and surrogates in detecting changes in soft bottom assemblages due to coastal defence structures

Sandy shores on the West coast of the North Adriatic Sea are extensively protected by different types of defence structures to prevent coastal erosion. Coastal defence schemes modify the hydrodynamic regime, the sediment structure and composition thus affecting the benthic assemblages. This study examines the effectiveness in detecting changes in soft bottom assemblages caused by coastal defence structures by using different levels of taxonomic resolution, polychaetes and/or bivalves as surrogates and different data transformations. A synoptic analyses of three datasets of subtidal benthic macrofauna used in studies aimed at assessing the impact of breakwaters along the North Adriatic coast has been done. Analyses of similarities and correlations between distance matrices were done using matrices with different levels of taxonomic resolution, and with polychaetes or bivalves data alone. Lentidium mediterraneum was the most abundant species in all datasets. Its abundance was not consistently related to the presence of defence structures. Moreover, distribution patterns of L. mediterraneum were masking the structure of the whole macrofaunal assemblages. Removal of L. mediterraneum from the datasets allowed the detection of changes in benthic assemblages due to coastal defences. Analyses on different levels of taxonomic resolution showed that the level of family maintained sufficient information to detect the impacts of coastal defence structures on benthic assemblages. Moreover, the outcomes depended on the transformation used. Patterns of distribution of bivalves, used as surrogates, showed low correlations with the patterns of the total macrofaunal species assemblages. Patterns of polychaetes, if identified to the species or genus level showed higher correlations with the whole dataset. However, the identification of polychaetes to species and genus level is as costly as the identification of all macrobenthic taxa at family level.This study provided additional evidences that taxonomic sufficiency is a useful tool in environmental monitoring, also in investigations on the impacts of coastal defence structures on subtidal macrofauna. The use of coarser taxonomic level, being time-efficient, would allow improving sampling designs of monitoring programs by increasing replication in space and time and by allowing long term monitoring studies.     

临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。