North Florida Dairy Farmer Perceptions Toward the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast Technology

Evidence of increasing nitrogen levels in the Suwannee River Basin in North Florida demands a collaborative effort to find creative ways to reduce N pollution. This study explores the perspectives, perceptions, and attitudes of dairy farmers regarding adoption of climate forecasts as a potential way to mitigate the problem. These farmers are heavily scrutinized because of their nitrogen emissions. By contrasting scientists' pre-conceived attitudes about the usefulness of ENSO-based forecasts with dairy farmers' perceptions, gathered in a participatory and consensual manner, valuable lessons were learned. A deeper understanding of the day to day realities of dairy farming systems help researchers pinpoint management adaptations that are not only useful, but feasible, in light of improved seasonal climate forecasts. Furthermore, dairy farmers' perceptions regarding the use of seasonal climate information to mitigate the nitrate problem are critical for designing future dairy systems.     

Cuyania, an Exotic Block to Gondwana: Review of a Historical Success and the Present Problems

A review of the early history of the Cuyania terrane and the numerous pioneering works of the past century provides the present robust framework of evidence supporting a derivation from Laurentia, travel towards Gondwana as an isolated microcontinent, and final amalgamation to the protomargin of western Gondwana in Middle to Late Ordovician times. The major remaining uncertainties and inconsistencies, such as the time of deformation and collision with Gondwana, the lack of evidence of Famatinian-derived zircons, the effects of strike-slip displacements proposed along the suture, as well as the potential sutures defined by ophiolite assemblages, are discussed. The precise boundary along the northern and southern limits is not yet well defined.

The most suitable hypothesis based on present data is that Cuyania originated as a conjugate margin of the Ouachita embayment, south of the Appalachian platform during Early Cambrian times. The subsequent travel toward the Gondwana protomargin is clearly depicted by the changing faunal assemblages in the carbonate platform. New geochemical and age data on K-bentonites presented by several authors reinforce the strong connection between Cuyania ash-fall tuffs and Famatina volcanics by 468–470 Ma, indicating Cuyania and Gondwana were in close proximity at that time.

Extension related to flexural subsidence, preceded by the drowning of the carbonate platform in early Llanvirnian times, is recorded by abrupt facies changes in the sedimentary cover during late Llanvirnian and early Caradocian times. This episode marked the beginning of contact between Cuyania and Gondwana. The subsequent evolution of the foreland basin indicates that deformation lasted until latest Silurian-Early Devonian times.

The time of collision is tracked by the cessation of arc-related magmatic activity in the upper plate (Gondwana protomargin), at about 465 Ma in western Sierras Pampeanas, and ages around 454 Ma corresponding to syncollisional and postcollisional magmatism. The age of the collision is also preserved in the lower plate (Cuyania), where both angular unconformities in the sedimentary cover and the ages of peak of regional metamorphism in the basement rocks point to 460 Ma as the most probable age for the beginning of the collision. Evidence from the upper plate is essentially identical with an age of 463 Ma. Thermal gradients along this suture vary from 13°C/km in the lower plate, to 18°C/km in the fore arc upper plate, reaching more than 30°C/km along the Famatinian arc. Based on these data, a Llandelian-Caradocian age for the collision can be postulated on firm grounds. Deformation continued through most of the early Paleozoic until amalgamation of the Chilenia terrane by the Late Devonian.     

Models of Ground Deformation and Eruption Magnitude from a Deep Source at Popocatepetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatepetl volcano in Central Mexico entered its latest stage of activity in late 1994. Due to the nature of its eruptive history and its location in a heavily populated area, it constitutes the highest risk in the cuntry. For this reason the volcano is currently under continuous surveillance; yet the interpretation of the information is carried out mostly on empirical basis and an integrating working model is lacking, at the present. In this paper, models of elastic deformation and mass erupted are developed to estimate the mass erupted according to the observed deformation patterns. We present results obtained from input based upon a gravimetric model of the volcano's internal structure and reasonable physical parameters of the volcanic system. These results are helpful in the planning of deformation and gravimetric observations aimed to forecast a major eruption.     

The Mitigation of Multipath Errors by Strobe Correlators in GPS/GLONASS Receivers

An effective method of decreasing multipath errors in GPS or GPS/GLONASS receivers by changing delay lock loop correlator reference signal is discussed. Unlike other approaches, this method does not lead to apparatus complication, power comsumption increase, or augmentation of digital processor load. This method eliminates the multipath error completely if the difference in delays of direct and reflected signal is more than 30 m, and decreases this error for smaller delays. The cost of such decrease is that the noise error is decreased. However, the noise error is much less dangerous than the multipath one because of its smaller value and much shorter correlation interval. Calculated and experimental data for the method are given for multipath and noise errors. ? 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The importance of ocean temperature to global biogeochemistry

Variations in the mean temperature of the ocean, on time scales from millennial to millions of years, in the past and projected for the future, are large enough to impact the geochemistry of the carbon, oxygen, and methane geochemical systems. In each system, the time scale of the temperature perturbation is key. On time frames of 1-100 ky, atmospheric CO₂ is controlled by the ocean. CO₂ temperature-dependent solubility and greenhouse forcing combine to create an amplifying feedback with ocean temperature; the CaCO₃ cycle increases this effect somewhat on time scales longer than ∼5-10 ky. The CO₂/T feedback can be seen in the climate record from Vostok, and a model including the temperature feedback predicts that 10% of the fossil fuel CO₂ will reside in the atmosphere for longer than 100 ky. Timing is important for oxygen, as well; the atmosphere controls the ocean on short time scales, but ocean anoxia controls atmospheric pO₂ on million-year time scales and longer. Warming the ocean to Cretaceous temperatures might eventually increase pO₂ by approximately 25%, in the absence of other perturbations. The response of methane clathrate to climate change in the coming century will probably be small, but on longer time scales of 1-10 ky, there may be a positive feedback with ocean temperature, amplifying the long-term climate impact of anthropogenic CO₂ release.     

Experimental research on critical point hy- pothesis

Introduction Earthquake is a kind of severe natural disaster. In order to predict earthquake effectively, thegeoscientists at home and abroad have carried out a great deal of studies on seismicity. For exam-ple,Willis, (1924) and Tocher (1959) made some early investigations on seismicity before largeearthquake. Chinese geoscientists performed even more studies in this field (CHEN, et al, 1981;HUANG, FENG, 1981; LIU, 1982; LU, 1985; LU, et al, 2001; MA, et al, 1982; MEI, 1960; …     

Applicability of the H/V spectral ratio of microtremors in assessing site effects on seismic motion

The authors examine the reliability of site response estimations obtained by the horizontal to vertical (H/V) spectral ratios of microtremors by means of cross‐validation with the ratio of the horizontal spectra of earthquake motion with respect to reference sites. The data comprise microtremor and ground motion records recorded at 150 sites of Yokohama strong motion array. The use of non‐supervised pattern recognition techniques aims to group the sites with more objectivity. Attributes defining the overall shape of the amplification spectra serve as input in the computation of Euclidean distance similarity coefficients amongst sites. The implementation of the Ward clustering scheme leads to the attainment of a meaningful tree diagram. Its analysis shows the possibility of summarizing the results into six general patterns. A good coincidence of site effects estimates at 80 per cent of the sites becomes apparent. However, this coincidence appears poor for sites characterized by H/V amplification ratios around 2 or smaller and predominant periods longer than 0.5 s. In such cases, the presence of stiff, sandy sediments in the soil profile proves common. To proscribe H/V estimations, relying solely on the small spectral ratios criterion seems inadequate. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.