Achievability of the Paris Agreement targets in the EU: demand-side reduction potentials in a carbon budget perspective

Limiting global warming to ‘well below’ 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C is an integral part of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these aims, cumulative global carbon emissions after 2016 should not exceed 940 – 390?Gt of CO₂ (for the 2°C target) and 167 – ?48?Gt of CO₂ (for the 1.5°C target) by the end of the century. This paper analyses the EU’s cumulative carbon emissions in different models and scenarios (global models, EU-focused models and national carbon mitigation scenarios). Due to the higher reductions in energy use and carbon intensity of the end-use sectors in the national scenarios, we identify an additional mitigation potential of 26–37 Gt cumulative CO₂ emissions up to 2050 compared to what is currently included in global or EU scenarios. These additional reductions could help to both reduce the need for carbon dioxide removals and bring cumulative emissions in global and EU scenarios in line with a fairness-based domestic EU budget for a 2°C target, while still remaining way above the budget for 1.5°C.

Key policy insights

• Models used for policy advice such as global integrated assessment models or EU models fail to consider certain mitigation potential available at the level of sectors.

• Global and EU models assume significant levels of CO₂ emission reductions from carbon capture and storage to reach the 1.5°C target but also to reach the 2°C target.

• Global and EU model scenarios are not compatible with a fair domestic EU share in the global carbon budget either for 2°C or for 1.5°C.

• Integrating additional sectoral mitigation potential from detailed national models can help bring down cumulative emissions in global and EU models to a level comparable to a fairness-based domestic EU share compatible with the 2°C target, but not the 1.5°C aspiration.

     

Governing geoengineering research for the Great Barrier Reef

Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to the impacts of rising marine temperatures and marine heatwaves. Mitigating dangerous climate change is essential and urgent, but many reef systems are already suffering on current levels of warming. Geoengineering options are worth exploring to protect the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from extreme warming conditions, but we contend that they require strong governance and public consultation from the outset. Australian governments are currently funding feasibility testing of three geoengineering proposals for the GBR. Each proposal involves manipulating ocean or atmospheric conditions to lower water temperatures and thereby reduce the threat of mass coral bleaching events. Innovative strategies to protect the GBR and field testing of these is essential, but current laws do not guarantee robust governance for field testing of these technologies. Nor do they provide the foundation for a more coherent national policy on climate intervention technologies more generally. Responsible governance frameworks, including detailed risk assessment and early public consultation, are necessary for geoengineering research to build legitimacy and promote scientific progress.

Key policy insights

• Marine heatwaves pose a serious threat to coral reefs, including Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef.

• Australian governments have recognized the threats of warming waters, and are funding research of geoengineering options for the Great Barrier Reef.

• The limited earlier field testing of geoengineering demonstrates the need for specific governance to manage risks, build legitimacy and maintain public support.

• Australia requires a framework to govern geoengineering research and development before deployment of such technologies.

     

Multisource multibeam backscatter data: developing a strategy for the production of benthic habitat maps using semi-automated seafloor classification methods

The establishment of multibeam echosounders (MBES) as a mainstream tool in ocean mapping has facilitated integrative approaches towards nautical charting, benthic habitat mapping, and seafloor geotechnical surveys. The bathymetric and backscatter information generated by MBES enables marine scientists to present highly accurate bathymetric data with a spatial resolution closely matching that of terrestrial mapping, and can generate customized thematic seafloor maps to meet multiple ocean management needs. However, when a variety of MBES systems are used, the creation of objective habitat maps can be hindered by the lack of backscatter calibration, due for example, to system-specific settings, yielding relative rather than absolute values. Here, we describe an approach using object-based image analysis to combine 4 non-overlapping and uncalibrated (backscatter) MBES coverages to form a seamless habitat map on St. Anns Bank (Atlantic Canada), a marine protected area hosting a diversity of benthic habitats. The benthoscape map was produced by analysing each coverage independently with supervised classification (k-nearest neighbor) of image-objects based on a common suite of 7 benthoscapes (determined with 4214 ground-truthing photographs at 61 stations, and characterized with backscatter, bathymetry, and bathymetric position index). Manual re-classification based on uncertainty in membership values to individual classes—especially at the boundaries between coverages—was used to build the final benthoscape map. Given the costs and scarcity of MBES surveys in offshore marine ecosystems—particularly in large ecosystems in need of adequate conservation strategies, such as in Canadian waters—developing approaches to synthesize multiple datasets to meet management needs is warranted.     

Labour Market Adjustment in the Time of Krismon: Changes in Employment Structure in Indonesia, 1997–98

This study examines the labour market outcomes of the recent economic crisis ( krismon ) in Indonesia, focusing on the change of employment structure between 1997 and 1998. Indonesia's labour market has been extremely flexible in adjusting itself during the crisis. Labour has moved from "modern" economic sectors to agricultural and "informal" sectors, reflecting the strategy of poor households to cope with the hardship. While the impact of the economic crisis on the majority of male workers has been severe, female labourers have become increasingly involved in several jobs to enable the survival of their families.     

Dynamics of melting beneath a small-scale basaltic system: a U-Th–Ra study from Rangitoto volcano,Auckland volcanic field,New Zealand

The Auckland volcanic field is a Quaternary monogenetic basaltic field of 50 volcanoes. Rangitoto is the most recent of these at ~500 year BP and may mark a change in the behaviour of the field as it is the largest by an order of magnitude and is unusual in that it erupted magmas of alkalic then subalkalic basaltic composition in discrete events separated by ≤50 years. Major and trace element geochemistry together with Sr–Nd and U-Th–Ra isotopes provides the basis for modelling the melting conditions that brought about the eruption of two chemically different lavas with very little spatial or temporal change. Sr–Nd isotopes suggest that the source for both eruptions is similar with a slight degree of heterogeneity. The basalts show high ²³⁰Th-excess compared with comparable continental volcanic fields. We show that the alkalic basalts give evidence for lower degrees of partial melting, higher amounts of residual garnet, a longer melting column and lower melting and upwelling rates compared with the subalkalic basalts. The low upwelling rates (0.1–1.5 cm/year) modelled for both magmas do not suggest a plume or major upwelling in the mantle region beneath Auckland; therefore, we suggest localised convection due to relict movement from the active subduction system situated 400 km to the southeast. A higher porosity for the initial alkalic basalt is based on ²²⁶Ra-excesses, suggesting movement of melt by two different porosities: the initial melt travelling in fast high porosity channels from greater depths preserving a high ²³⁰Th-excess and the subsequent subalkalic magma travelling from a shallower depth through lower porosity diffuse channels preserving a high ²²⁶Ra-excess; this creates a negative array in (²²⁶Ra/²³⁰Th) versus (²³⁰Th/²³⁸U) space previously only seen in mid ocean ridge Basalt data. This mechanism suggests the Auckland volcanic field may operate by the presence of discrete melt batches that are able to move at different depths and speeds giving the field its erratic spatial and temporal pattern of eruptions, a type of behaviour that may have implications for the evolution of other continental volcanic fields worldwide.     

Contemporary Rates of Carbon Sequestration Through Vertical Accretion of Sediments in Mangrove Forests and Saltmarshes of South East Queensland,Australia

Mangrove forests and saltmarshes are important habitats for carbon (C) sequestration in the coastal zone but variation in rates of C sequestration and the factors controlling sequestration are poorly understood. We assessed C sequestration in Moreton Bay, South East Queensland in mangrove forests and tidal marshes that span a range of environmental settings and plant communities, including mangrove forests and tidal marshes on the oligotrophic sand islands of the eastern side of Moreton Bay and on the nutrient enriched, western side of the bay adjacent to the city of Brisbane. We found that rates of C sequestration in sediments were similar among mangrove forests over the bay, despite large differences in the C density of sediments, because of different rates of vertical accretion of sediments. The C sequestration on the oligotrophic sand island tidal marshes, dominated by Juncus kraussii, had the highest rate of C sequestration in the bay while the western saltmarshes, which were dominated by Sarcocornia quinqueflora, had the lowest rate of C sequestration. Our data indicate C sequestration varies among different tidal wetland plant community types, due to variation in sediment characteristics and rates of sediment accretion over time.     

A Great Basin-wide dry episode during the first half of the Mystery Interval?

The existence of the Big Dry event from 14.9 to 13.8 ¹⁴C kyrs in the Lake Estancia New Mexico record suggests that the deglacial Mystery Interval (14.5–12.4 ¹⁴C kyrs) has two distinct hydrologic parts in the western USA. During the first, Great Basin Lake Estancia shrank in size and during the second, Great Basin Lake Lahontan reached its largest size. It is tempting to postulate that the transition between these two parts of the Mystery Interval were triggered by the IRD event recorded off Portugal at about 13.8 ¹⁴C kyrs which post dates Heinrich event #1 by about 1.5 kyrs. This twofold division is consistent with the record from Hulu Cave, China, in which the initiation of the weak monsoon event occurs in the middle of the Mystery Interval at 16.1 kyrs (i.e., about 13.8 ¹⁴C kyrs).     

California's evolution toward integrated regional water management: a long-term view

Water resources sustainability hinges on interrelated physical, chemical, biological, and human processes, all of which may affect the quantity and quality of available water supplies. California's decades-long transition process from intensive and often unmanaged groundwater development toward more effective, sustainable integrated water resources management has resulted in important lessons. The process offers insights to other countries that seek to achieve sustainability. Long-term systematic groundwater and surface water monitoring programs and ongoing assessment of regional groundwater systems are an integral part of management. On local to global scales, the need for fundamental data, regional resources assessments, and increased support for scientific and technological advances is becoming increasingly apparent. The scientific community must enhance society's understanding of the essential links between basic data needs and the advancement and application of scientific approaches for effective water management. Correspondingly, scientific and political communities must coordinate common interests in endeavors toward sustainable management. Public outreach is a necessary complement to achieve sustainability goals and garner support for the programs needed to develop water policies based on sound science, manage water resources, and meet future water demands while avoiding unacceptable impacts.

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Resumen La sostenibilidad de los recursos hídricos gira sobre procesos interrelacionados físicos, químicos, biológicos y humanos, todos los cuales pueden afectar la cantidad y calidad de fuentes disponibles de agua. El proceso de transición de varias décadas que ha experimentado California, a partir de un desarrollo intensivo y frecuentemente carente de gestión de aguas subterráneas, hacia una gestión más efectiva, sostenible e integrada de recursos hídricos ha dado por resultado lecciones importantes. Este proceso ofrece alternativas para otros países que buscan alcanzar sostenibilidad. Los programas de monitoreo sistemático a largo plazo de agua superficial y agua subterránea, y las evaluaciones actuales de sistemas regionales de agua subterránea constituyen una parte integral de la gestión. Se hace cada vez más evidente, a escala global y local, la necesidad de datos básicos, evaluaciones regionales de recursos, y apoyo creciente para avances científicos y tecnológicos. La comunidad científica tiene que estimular el entendimiento de la sociedad de las relaciones fundamentales entre las necesidades de datos básicos y los avances y aplicación de enfoques científicos para un manejo efectivo del agua. Del mismo modo, las comunidades científicas y políticas tienen que coordinar intereses comunes en los esfuerzos hacia una gestión sostenible. El involucramiento del público es un complemento necesario para alcanzar los objetivos de sostenibilidad y obtener apoyo para los programas necesarios que permitan desarrollar políticas hídricas basadas en ciencia sana, gestión de recursos hídricos, y alcanzar las demandas futuras de agua mientras se evitan impactos inaceptables.

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Résumé La durabilité des ressources en eau est à la charnière de processus physiques, chimiques, biologiques et humains, tous inter-reliés et à même d'affecter la quantité et la qualité de la disponibilité en eau d'alimentation. Les processus de transition décadaires en Californie, entre un développement intensif et non contrôlé des eaux souterraines, à un système plus rentable et durable de gestion intégrée des ressources en eau, a permis de conclure sur d'importantes leçons. Ce processus offre, en effet, des perspicacités à d'autres pays qui cherchent à concrétiser la durabilité. Les programmes systématiques de surveillance des eaux souterraines et de surface, sur le long terme, font parti intégrant de ce type de gestion. De l'échelle locale à l'échelle globale, la nécessité de données fondamentales, de bilans régionaux des ressources, et d'un support croissant aux avancées scientifiques et techniques, est devenu de plus en plus apparent. La communauté scientifique doit améliorer la compréhension de la société, en ce qui concerne les liens essentiels entre le besoin de données et l'avancement et l'application des approches scientifiques pour une gestion efficace de l'eau. De la même manière, les communautés scientifiques et politiques doivent coordonner leurs intérêts communs en se démenant pour une gestion durable. La mobilisation du publique est un complément nécessaire pour accomplir les objectifs de la durabilité, et rassembler le support aux besoins des programmes, de manière à développer des politiques de l'eau basées sur une science juste, à gérer les ressources en eau et satisfaire les futures demandes tout en évitant des impacts non acceptables.