ARMA order model detection using minimum of Kurtosis: application on seismic data

The objective of this study is to find the order and coefficients of non-low-phase causal filters for ARMA (auto regressive moving average) filter model, using the Kurtosis minimization criterion. This method is based on the Kurtosis calculation of the treated sample at the input level and its identification at the output of the ARMA model. For this purpose, the order and coefficients of the AR (auto regressive) part are identified using the Yule-Walker algorithm at order two and then extended to order four. To obtain the MA (moving average) part, the AR components are calculated at first from the ARMA filter by deconvolution. Then, spectrally equivalent and minimum phase (SEMP) MA filter is identified using the Durbin algorithm at second and fourth order. Finally, the correct filter is found when the Kurtosis value of the output ARMA filter reconstituted is the closest to the Kurtosis of introduced signal. The proposed method is then tested on simulated processes and applied to real seismic data to perform blind deconvolution and obtain the reflectivity coefficients of subsoil studied.     

A micro–macro investigation of the capillary strengthening effect in wet granular materials

Wet granular materials are three-dimensionally simulated by the discrete element method with water bridges incorporated between particles. The water bridges are simplified as toroidal shapes, and the matric suction is constantly maintained in the material. A comparison with experimental tests in the literature indicates that the toroidal shape approximation may be one of the best choices with high practicability and decent accuracy. Mechanical behaviours of wet granular materials are studied by triaxial tests. Effects of particle size distributions and void ratios are investigated systematically in this study. The hydraulic limit of the pendular state is also discussed. It gives the capillary cohesion function which is not only determined by the degree of saturation but also positively correlated to relative density and particle size polydispersity and inversely proportional to mean particle size. Furthermore, the capillary strengthening effect is also analysed microscopically in aid of the Stress–Force–Fabric relationship, mainly in fabric anisotropy, coordination number and stress transmission pattern, which revealed the micro-mechanisms of the additional effective stress induced by capillary effect.     

Description and interpretation of the composition of fluid and alteration mineralogy in the geothermal system,at Svartsengi,Iceland

The bulk composition and mineralogy of hydrothermally altered tholeiite, along with the composition and speciation of fluid, have been determined for a well-defined alteration zone at 240°C and 110 bars at Svartsengi, Iceland. Mass balances between the geothermal fluid and altered tholeiite, relative to a seawater/fresh water mixture and unaltered tholeiite, indicate the overall reaction per 1000 cm³ is: 1325 gm plagioclase + 1228 gm pyroxene + 215 gm oxide-minerals break down to form 685 gm chlorite + 636 gm albite + 441 gm quartz + 249 gm epidote + 266 gm calcite + 201 gm oxide-minerals + 15 gm pyrite, requiring an influx of 123 gm CO₂, 10 gm H₂S and 4 gm Na₂O and a release of 57 gm SiO₂, 35 gm FeO, 21 gm CaO, 8 gm MgO and 4 gm K₂O.Principal reactions, deduced from textural evidence, include Na-Ca exchange in plagioclase, precipitation of quartz, calcite and anhydrite, and formation of chlorite and epidote by reactions between groundmass minerals and fluid.Thermodynamic analyses of authigenic minerals and downhole fluid indicate that the fluid maintains a state close to equilibrium with the secondary mineral phases chlorite, epidote, albite, quartz, calcite, prehnite, anhydrite, pyrite and magnetite, whereas remnant primary labradorite and augite are out of equilibrium with the fluid.Water/rock ratios for the system are determined under a variety of assumptions. However, the open nature of the system makes comparisons with experimental and theoretical closed system studies ambiguous.     

Long-Term Changes in the Extreme Significant Wave Heights on the Western North Pacific: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Activity and ENSO

Seasonal extreme wave statistics were reproduced by using the 25-km-grid global wave model of WAVEWATCH-III. The results showed that the simulated wave dataset for the present climate (1979-2009) was similar to Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wave data. Statistics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin were 0.5 m and 0.69 over the analysis domain. The largest trends and standard deviation were around the southern coast of Japan and western edge of the WNP. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify the relationship between the leading principal components (PCs) of significant wave heights (SWHs) in the peak season of July to September and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The results indicated that the inter-annual variability of SWH can be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the peak season. The CC between the first PC of the SWH and anomalies in the Nino 3.4 SST index was also significant at a 99% confidence level. Significant variations in the SWH are affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by increased SST anomalies. The genesis and development of simulated TCs can be important to the variation in SWHs for the WNP in the peak season. Therefore, we can project the variability of SWHs through TC activity based on changes in SST conditions for the equatorial Pacific in the future.     

Assessment of global warming on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). Trends in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures since 1944

Temperature variation is studied at different altitudes and orientation on the island of Tenerife, according to the trends in the mean, maximum and minimum at 21 meteorological stations. Reference series are obtained by sectors, along with a representative overall series for Tenerife, in which temperature shows a statistically significant growth trend of 0.09?±?0.04°C/decade since 1944. Night-time temperatures have risen most (0.17°C?±?0.04°C/decade), while by day they have been more stable. Consequently, the diurnal temperature range between day and night has narrowed. By regions, warming has been much more intense in the high mountains than the other sectors below the inversion layer between 600 and 1,400?m altitude, and progressively milder towards the coast. The temperature rise on the windward (north-northeast) slopes is greater than on the leeward side and could be related to the increase in cloudiness on the northern side. The general warming of the island is less than in continental areas at between 24 and 44oN, being closer to the sea surface temperature in the same area. This is probably explained largely by the insular conditions. In fact warming is more evident in the high mountains (0.14?±?0.07°C/decade), where the tempering effect of the ocean and the impact of changes in the stratocumulus is weaker, being similar to the mean continental values in the northern hemisphere.     

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.     

Respiration of Recently-Fixed Plant Carbon Dominates Mid-Winter Ecosystem CO2 Production in Sub-Arctic Heath Tundra

Arctic ecosystems could provide a substantial positive feedback to global climate change if warming stimulates below-ground CO₂ release by enhancing decomposition of bulk soil organic matter reserves.Ecosystem respiration during winter is important in this context because CO₂ release from snow-covered tundra soils is a substantial component of annual net carbon (C) balance, and because global climate models predict that the most rapid rises in regional air temperature will occur in the Arctic during winter. In this manipulative field study, the relative contributions of plant and bulk soil organic matter C pools to ecosystem CO₂ production in mid-winter were investigated. We measured CO₂ efflux rates in Swedish sub-arctic heath tundra from control plots and from plots that had been clipped in the previous growing season to disrupt plant activity. Respiration derived from recently-fixed plant C (i.e., plant respiration, and respiration associated with rhizosphere exudates and decomposition of fresh litter) was the principal source of CO₂ efflux, while respiration associated with decomposition of bulk soil organic matter was low, and appeared relatively insensitive to temperature. These results suggest that warmer mid-winter temperatures in the Arctic may have a much greater impact on the cycling of recently-fixed, plant-associated C pools than on the depletion of tundra bulk soil C reserves, and consequently that there is a low potential for significant initial feedbacks from arctic ecosystems to climate change during mid-winter.     

Conventions on thermal expansion modelling of radio telescopes for geodetic and astrometric VLBI

Thermal expansion of radio telescopes has long been recognized as an effect which cannot be neglected in geodetic and astrometric VLBI data analysis if millimeter accuracy is desired. In this article, the author documents the conventions which are being set by the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) for a consistent modelling of this effect in its routine product generation. For the largest telescopes, the annual cycle of thermal expansion may change the height of the VLBI reference point by as much as 20 mm. However, for telescopes which are used in present-day IVS operations, the variations rather range from 4 to 6 mm.     

Recovery of groundwater in the Sanriku region contaminated by the tsunami inundation from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Many wells in the Sanriku region used as sources for water supply systems were heavily contaminated by the tsunami of the 2011 great Tohoku earthquake on March 11 in 2011. To better understand the nature of the groundwater contamination by the tsunami inundation and to clarify the recovery process of contaminated groundwater at the study wells, groundwater monitoring has been conducted once or twice yearly since early summer in 2011. High and abnormal values of electric conductivity (EC), chloride ion concentration (CIC), Na⁺, Ca⁺, heavy metal ions, and heavier isotopes of the contaminated groundwater were also obtained in April and June 2011. The chemical elements have rapidly and exponentially decreased as a result of effective pumping of the contaminated groundwater from the study wells and because of abundant rainfall in 2011. In April 2015 (about 4 years after the tsunami inundation), the CIC and EC of the contaminated groundwater of two study wells in Minamisanriku town had reached pre-inundation values. The estimated residence times of groundwater of the two study wells were 105–118 days in the full-day pumping stage and 910–1000 days in the daytime-only pumping stage.     

Evaluation of site effects on ground motions based on equivalent linear site response analysis and liquefaction potential in Chennai,south India

We study local site effects with detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization to evaluate the site-specific seismic hazard for the seismic microzonation of the Chennai city in South India. A Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) of magnitude 6.0 is considered based on the available seismotectonic and geological information of the study area. We synthesized strong ground motion records for this target event using stochastic finite-fault technique, based on a dynamic corner frequency approach, at different sites in the city, with the model parameters for the source, site, and path (attenuation) most appropriately selected for this region. We tested the influence of several model parameters on the characteristics of ground motion through simulations and found that stress drop largely influences both the amplitude and frequency of ground motion. To minimize its influence, we estimated stress drop after finite bandwidth correction, as expected from an M6 earthquake in Indian peninsula shield for accurately predicting the level of ground motion. Estimates of shear wave velocity averaged over the top 30 m of soil (V_S30) are obtained from multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) at 210 sites at depths of 30 to 60 m below the ground surface. Using these V_S30 values, along with the available geotechnical information and synthetic ground motion database obtained, equivalent linear one-dimensional site response analysis that approximates the nonlinear soil behavior within the linear analysis framework was performed using the computer program SHAKE2000. Fundamental natural frequency, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at surface and rock levels, response spectrum at surface level for different damping coefficients, and amplification factors are presented at different sites of the city. Liquefaction study was done based on the V_S30 and PGA values obtained. The major findings suggest show that the northeast part of the city is characterized by (i) low V_S30 values (<?200 m/s) associated with alluvial deposits, (ii) relatively high PGA value, at the surface, of about 0.24 g, and (iii) factor of safety and liquefaction below unity at three sites (no. 12, no. 37, and no. 70). Thus, this part of the city is expected to experience damage for the expected M6 target event.