Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations

Western Turkey has a long history of destructive earthquakes that are responsible for the death of thousands of people and which caused devastating damage to the existing infrastructures, and cultural and historical monuments. The recent earthquakes of Izmit (Kocaeli) on 17 August, 1999 (M _w  = 7.4) and Düzce (M _w  = 7.2) on 12 November, 1999, which occurred in the neighboring fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), were catastrophic ones for the Marmara region and surroundings in NW Turkey. Stress transfer between the two adjacent fault segments successfully explained the temporal proximity of these events. Similar evidence is also provided from recent studies dealing with successive strong events occurrence along the NAF and parts of the Aegean Sea; in that changes in the stress field due to the coseismic displacement of the stronger events influence the occurrence of the next events of comparable size by advancing their occurrence time and delimiting their occurrence place. In the present study the evolution of the stress field since the beginning of the twentieth century in the territory of the eastern Aegean Sea and western Turkey is examined, in an attempt to test whether the history of cumulative changes in stress can explain the spatial and temporal occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in this area. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in elastic half space, taking into account both the coseismic slip in large (M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip and normal faults. In each stage of the evolutionary model the stress field is calculated according to the strike, dip, and rake angles of the next large event, whose triggering is inspected, and the possible sites for future strong earthquakes can be assessed. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards is given by translating the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes.     

Uncertainties in the estimation of earthquake magnitudes in Greece

Instrumental magnitudes in Greece have been reported as: a) Mmagnitudes based on the records of the Wiechert or Mainka seismographs,b) M_LGR magnitudes based on the records of the Wood-Anderson(WA) seismographs (T_o = 0.8 sec, V_effective 1000) or othershort period seismographs calibrated against WA records and,c) M_LSM magnitudes based on strong motion records(accelerograms). Comparison of such magnitudes with momentmagnitudes, M_w, for 329 earthquakes, with epicenters in thebroader Aegean area, performed in this study, showedthat M, M_LGR+0.5 and M_LSM are practically equalto M_w, with a small overall standard error ( = 0.23).Therefore, equivalent moment magnitudes, M_w ^*,estimated from these magnitudes and reported in the catalogues of theGeophysical Laboratory of the University of Thessaloniki are equal tomoment magnitudes for all practical purposes with reasonable uncertainties.It has been further shown that surface wave magnitudes, M_s,for M_s <6.0, can be also transferred into momentmagnitudes, M_w ^*, but the larger uncertaintiesencountered make its use rather problematic.     

Deformation patterns associated with the M5.9 Athens (Greece) earthquake of 7 September 1999

The static displacement field of the Athens 1999 earthquake has been numerically modeled by a BEM method and analysed from SAR interferometry images with compatible results: (a) for a fault that reaches the surface the subsidence field coincides with the hangingwall domain of the Fili neotectonic normal fault with maximum amplitude, d _max, 5.5–7 cm, which is consistent with the possibly co-seismic displacement of 6–10 cm observed in the field, the average fault dislocation of 5–8 cm found by the application of circular source models, and the displacement up to 6 cm predicted by empirical relations between magnitude and displacement; the field of uplift covers the footwall domain of the fault with d _max1.5 cm;d gradually decreases with distance from the fault at a gradient of 0.4 cm/km, (b) for a blind fault d _max is only 1.8 and 0.3 cm in the hangingwall and footwall, respectively, and the decay gradient becomes 0.15 cm/km, (c) the total deformation area is 15 km × 15 km and the Fili fault, with a preferred mean dip of 60°, constitutes the natural boundary between the subsidence and uplift areas. The macroseismic field pattern is similar with that of the static ground deformation. The majority of intensity values VI (MM and EMS-98 scales), are distributed within the hangingwall of the Fili fault, while the highest intensities (VIII and IX) concentrate very close to the Fili fault within its hangingwall domain. A gradual decrease of the intensities with the distance from the Fili fault is evident. Because of the similarity between the intensity distribution pattern and the static ground deformation pattern, we make the hypothesis that the latter predicts well enough the main characteristics of the former although the ground displacement is dominated by relatively low frequency as compared to the ground acceleration.     

Static stress changes associated with normal faulting earthquakes in South Balkan area

Activation of major faults in Bulgaria and northern Greece presents significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to populated centers. The long recurrence intervals, of the order of several hundred years as suggested by previous investigations, imply that the twentieth century activation along the southern boundary of the sub-Balkan graben system, is probably associated with stress transfer among neighbouring faults or fault segments. Fault interaction is investigated through elastic stress transfer among strong main shocks (M ≥ 6.0), and in three cases their foreshocks, which ruptured distinct or adjacent normal fault segments. We compute stress perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half-space. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We explore the interaction between normal faults in the study area by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) since 1904 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 100 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. We evaluate if these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. Our modeling results show that the generation of each strong event enhanced the Coulomb stress on along-strike neighbors and reduced the stress on parallel normal faults. We extend the stress calculations up to present and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying possible sites of impending strong earthquakes.     

Application of the stress evolutionary model along the Xiaojiang fault zone in Yunnan Province,Southeast China

The Xiaojiang fault zone constitutes part of the major Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang left lateral structure that bounds the rhombic-shaped block of Yunnan-Sichuan to the east. Long strike slip fault zones that have repeatedly accommodated intense seismic activity, constitute a basic feature of southeast China. Known historical earthquakes to have struck the study area are the 1713 Xundian of M6.8, 1725 Wanshou mountain of M6.8, the 1733 Dongchuan of M7.8, and the strongest one, the 1833 Songming of M8.0. Although instrumental record did not report events of this magnitude class, the 18th century clustering as well as the 19th century large event prompted the investigation of stress transfer along this fault zone. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M ≥ 6.8) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. Geological and geodetic data are used to infer the geometry of these faults and long term slip rates on them, as well as for the fault segments that slipped. Evidence is presented that the strong historical events as well as the ones of smaller magnitude that occurred during the instrumental era, are located in areas where the static stress was enhanced. By extending the calculations up to present, possible sites for future strong events are identified.     

Enhanced multi-objective optimization algorithm for renewable energy sources: optimal spatial development of wind farms

A new approach for treating multi-objective spatial optimization problems is introduced in this study, aiming at deriving the optimal spatial allocation of Wind Farms on a Greek Island (Lesvos). This work builds on the knowledge gained from numerous applications of multi-objective genetic algorithms, either for spatial planning purposes or for other engineering-related topics, by incorporating modified genetic operators and sophisticated planning criteria. Hence, a stand-alone genetic optimizer was developed that incorporates the controlled non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (CNSGA-II), in which the user can model all planning criteria and constraints for every spatial entity to be allocated, and handle the genetic solver via a built-in computational framework that permits the analysis of large terrains. The presented paradigm provides interesting findings for the optimal development of renewable energy sources projects whose spatial allocation is governed by conflicting criteria and strict constraints.