Integrated modeling as a decision‐aiding tool for groundwater management in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed

A decision‐aiding methodology for agricultural groundwater management is presented; it is based on the combination of a watershed model, a groundwater flow model, and an optimization model. This methodology was applied to an agricultural watershed in northeastern Greece. The watershed model used was the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which provided recharge rates for the aquifers. These recharge rates were imported in the well‐known MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Both models were calibrated and verified using field data. Then, the nonlinear optimization problem was solved by a piecewise linearization process, in which the Simplex algorithm was applied sequentially. Apart from several pumping and climate change sensitivity scenarios, a land use change scenario and a climate change scenario, combining the three models, were tested, showing the ability of this methodology to be used in the decision‐making process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The first photometric analysis of the near-contact binary star V370 Cygni

The first complete CCD light curves of the eclipsing binary system V370 Cygni have been obtained in the B, V, R and I filters during 5 consecutive nights in 2005 at Kryoneri Observatory, Greece. These curves were analyzed with the Wilson–Devinney program in order to determine the geometrical and physical parameters of the system. The analysis indicates a semi-detached configuration and a mildly evolved state of the system.      

Near-contact binaries among short-period Algols: the case of BF Velorum with a pulsating component

A photometric analysis of the short-period Algol eclipsing binary system BF Velorum based for the first time on complete BVRI CCD light curves is presented. The new photometric solution obtained with the Wilson-Devinney program reveals that BF Vel is a near-contact semi-detached system with its secondary component filling its Roche lobe. Moreover, we discovered pulsations of one member of the binary system, the analysis of which shows main frequencies of 44.9386 and 33.6731 cycles/day. Absolute elements of the system were calculated, and the evolutionary status of its members was estimated.      

Combining geographic information system, multicriteria evaluation techniques and fuzzy logic in siting MSW landfills

This study presents a methodology for siting municipal solid waste landfills, coupling geographic information systems (GIS), fuzzy logic, and multicriteria evaluation techniques. Both exclusionary and non-exclusionary criteria are used. Factors, i.e., non-exclusionary criteria, are divided in two distinct groups which do not have the same level of trade off. The first group comprises factors related to the physical environment, which cannot be expressed in terms of monetary cost and, therefore, they do not easily trade off. The second group includes those factors related to human activities, i.e., socioeconomic factors, which can be expressed as financial cost, thus showing a high level of trade off. GIS are used for geographic data acquisition and processing. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is the multicriteria evaluation technique used, enhanced with fuzzy factor standardization. Besides assigning weights to factors through the AHP, control over the level of risk and trade off in the siting process is achieved through a second set of weights, i.e., order weights, applied to factors in each factor group, on a pixel-by-pixel basis, thus taking into account the local site characteristics. The method has been applied to Evros prefecture (NE Greece), an area of approximately 4,000 km². The siting methodology results in two intermediate suitability maps, one related to environmental and the other to socioeconomic criteria. Combination of the two intermediate maps results in the final composite suitability map for landfill siting.     

Earthquake recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes in the North Aegean Trough (Greece)

The determination of strong earthquakes’ recurrence time above a predefined magnitude, associated with specific fault segments, is an important component of seismic hazard assessment. The occurrence of these earthquakes is neither periodic nor completely random but often clustered in time. This fact in connection with their limited number, due to shortage of the available catalogs, inhibits a deterministic approach for recurrence time calculation, and for this reason, application of stochastic processes is required. In this study, recurrence time determination in the area of North Aegean Trough (NAT) is developed by the application of time-dependent stochastic models, introducing an elastic rebound motivated concept for individual fault segments located in the study area. For this purpose, all the available information on strong earthquakes (historical and instrumental) with M_w ≥ 6.5 is compiled and examined for magnitude completeness. Two possible starting dates of the catalog are assumed with the same magnitude threshold, M_w ≥ 6.5 and divided into five data sets, according to a new segmentation model for the study area. Three Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models with different levels of aperiodicity are applied and evaluated with the Anderson–Darling test for each segment in both catalog data where possible. The preferable models are then used in order to estimate the occurrence probabilities of M_w ≥ 6.5 shocks on each segment of NAT for the next 10, 20, and 30 years since 01/01/2016. Uncertainties in probability calculations are also estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure. It must be mentioned that the provided results should be treated carefully because of their dependence to the initial assumptions. Such assumptions exhibit large variability and alternative means of these may return different final results.     

Determination of Forchheimer equation coefficients a and b

This study focuses on the determination of the Forchheimer equation coefficients a and b for non‐Darcian flow in porous media. Original theoretical equations are evaluated and empirical relations are proposed based on an investigation of available data in the literature. The validity of these equations is checked using existing experimental data, and their accuracy versus existing approaches is studied. On the basis of this analysis, some insight into the physical background of the phenomenon is also provided. The dependence of the coefficients a and b on the Reynolds number is also detected, and potential future research areas, e.g. investigation of inertial effects for consolidated porous media, are pointed out. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial prediction of nitrate pollution in groundwaters using neural networks and GIS: an application to South Rhodope aquifer (Thrace,Greece)

Neural network techniques combined with Geographical Information Systems (GIS), are used in the spatial prediction of nitrate pollution in groundwaters. Initially, the most important parameters controlling groundwater pollution by nitrates are determined. These include hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, depth to the aquifer, land uses, soil permeability, and fine to coarse grain ratio in the unsaturated zone. All these parameters were quantified in a GIS environment, and were standardized in a common scale. Subsequently, a neural network classification was applied, using a multi‐layer perceptron classifier with the back propagation (BP) algorithm, in order to categorize the examined area into categories of groundwater nitrate pollution potential. The methodology was applied to South Rhodope aquifer (Thrace, Greece). The calculation was based on information from 214 training sites, which correspond to monitored nitrate concentrations in groundwaters in the area. The predictive accuracy of the model developed reached 86% in the training samples, 74% in the overall sample and 71% in the test samples. This indicates that this methodology is promising to describe the spatial pattern of nitrate pollution. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Retrospective Prediction of Macroseismic Intensities Using Strong Ground Motion Simulation: The Case of the 1978 Thessaloniki (Greece) Earthquake (M6.5)

The densely populated city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece) is situated in~the vicinity of active seismic faults, capable of producing moderate to strong earthquakes. The city has been severely affected by such events several times during the last 15 centuries. The most recent event occurred on 20 June 1978 (M6.5) in the Mygdonian graben, with an epicentral distance of about 30 km, causing extended damage in the city, with macroseismic intensities between MSK V+ and VIII+. The majority of buildings affected by the earthquake were of reinforced-concrete typology, typical to many southern European metropolitan areas. The source properties of the normal-faulting causative event and the source-to-city propagation path are well known from previous studies. The soil structure under the metropolitan area of Thessaloniki is assigned NEHRP categories B, C, D on the basis of geotechnical and geologic information and single-station ambient-noise measurements. A finite source model and various rupture scenarios of the June 1978 earthquake are used to perform forward stochastic modeling of strong ground motion in terms of peak ground and spectral acceleration. Rock motion is assessed under the city and it is transferred to the surface in accordance with the respective soil category. A GIS tool is employed to compare the estimated strong-motion parameters with the observed detailed damage pattern induced by the 1978 earthquake. For selected natural periods, a satisfactory correlation is established between macroseismic intensity and peak ground and spectral acceleration, thus encouraging the application of stochastic modeling for generating realistic ground-shaking scenarios in metropolitan areas.