Extraction of tsunami source coefficients via inversion of DART \circledR^{\circledR} buoy data

The ability to accurately forecast potential hazards posed to coastal communities by tsunamis generated seismically in both the near and far field requires knowledge of so-called source coefficients, from which the strength of a tsunami can be deduced. Seismic information alone can be used to set the source coefficients, but the values so derived reflect the dynamics of movement at or below the seabed and hence might not accurately describe how this motion is manifested in the overlaying water column. We describe here a method for refining source coefficient estimates based on seismic information by making use of data from Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART ^\circledR^{\circledR}) buoys (tsunameters). The method involves using these data to adjust precomputed models via an inversion algorithm so that residuals between the adjusted models and the DART ^\circledR^{\circledR} data are as small as possible in a least squares sense. The inversion algorithm is statistically based and hence has the ability to assess uncertainty in the estimated source coefficients. We describe this inversion algorithm in detail and apply it to the November 2006 Kuril Islands event as a case study.     

I anthropogenic budget: Major sources and sinks

Data are presented here on the anthropogenic ¹²⁹I inventory in regions that have been strongly affected by releases from European reprocessing facilities which, to the authors’ knowledge, presently account for >90% of the global isotope source in the Earth’s surface environment. The results show that >90% of the isotope inventory occurs in marine waters with the Nordic Seas and Eurasian basin of the Arctic Ocean containing most of the ¹²⁹I. Within the terrestrial environment of Europe, soils contain the largest part of the isotope inventory. However, the inventory of the terrestrial system did not provide clues on the most plausible atmospheric source of ¹²⁹I to Europe, thus supply from both gaseous and marine releases is proposed. The sum of the total inventory in both the marine and terrestrial environments did not match the estimated releases. This imbalance is likely to relate to unconstrained inventory estimates for marine basins (Irish Sea, English Channel and North Sea) close to the facilities, but also to the occurrence of ¹²⁹I in the biosphere, and possible overestimated releases from the nuclear reprocessing facilities. There is no doubt that the available data on ¹²⁹I distribution in the environment are far from representative and further research is urgently needed to construct a comprehensive picture.     

Uranium Behavior in the Process of Primary Pitchblende Ores Alteration by the Post‐ore Hydrothermal Solutions: An Application to Assessment of Uranium Migration from Underground Spent Nuclear Fuel Repositories

It has been shown that the main uranium ore mineral, pitchblende (uranium dioxide), is a natural analog of synthetic uraninite (also uranium dioxide), which constitutes 96% of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Geochronological studies of the U‐Pb isotope systems in unaltered pitchblende from the orebodies reveal that these systems remained completely closed over the entire period (approximately 135 Ma) since the formation of the deposits. The bulk of the primary uranium ores within the Streltsovskoye ore field was influenced to various degrees by post‐ore hydrothermal solutions that led to pitchblende spherulites being replaced by pseudomorphs of an amorphous phase with a U‐Si composition; this phase also re‐precipitated in veinlets proximal to the pitchblende pseudomorphs. A technique specially developed by the authors was used to carry out quantitative counts of the abundance of uranium minerals by calculating the uranium mass balance in one of the orebodies subjected to hydrothermal alteration. The calculations reveal minimal uranium loss from the orebody. Uranium liberated in the process of the pseudomorphic replacement of pitchblende was immediately fixed, in situ, in the newly formed coffinite‐like amorphous U‐Si phase as a result of the development of an efficient geochemical barrier that prevented the long‐distance migration of uranium. In assessing the long‐term safety of underground SNF repositories, the results of the present study give us confidence that SNF uraninite, in terms of the preservation of its integrity as a mineral phase, provides for the reliable long‐term isolation of uranium, transuranium elements, and fission products that are “sealed” in the uraninite matrix. In the case of the mineral transformation of the uraninite matrix by hydrothermal solutions, the liberated uranium would be efficiently immobilized by the newly formed amorphous U‐Si phase.     

Palaeolimnological evidence for recent climatic change in lakes from the northern Urals, arctic Russia

The recent sediments from two deep arctic lakes, Mitrofanovskoe and Vanuk-ty, situated in the permafrost belt within the Bolshezemelskaya Tundra in the northern Ural region, were studied for diatoms, chironomids, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and stable lead isotopes. The magnitudes and rates-of-change in diatom and chironomid assemblages were numerically estimated. Instrumental climate records were used to assess statistically the amount of variance in diatom and chironomid data explained by temperature. August and September air temperatures have a statistically significant effect on diatom composition at both lakes. At Mitrofanovskoe Lake, major compositional changes in diatom and chironomid assemblages occurred at the turn of the 20th century and might be related to the regional increase in temperature. Chironomid-inferred air temperature also increased by approximately 1 °C since the early 1900s. At both lakes diatom compositional changes, coincident with the increase in June and September temperatures, also occurred in the late 1960s. These compositional changes are correlated with the increase in diatom production, sediment organic content and diatom species richness, and are likely to be a diatom response to the lengthening of the growing season. These changes are also correlated with the circum-Arctic temperature increase from the 1960s. A chironomid response to the late 1960s temperature increase was less pronounced at both lakes. Pollution levels are relatively low and pollution history is unrelated to ecological changes. Both lead isotopes and spheroidal carbonaceous particles show a clear atmospheric pollution signal, peaking in the 1980s.     

Integrating the geology,seismic attributes,and production of reservoirs to adjust interwell areas:A case from the Mangyshlak Basin of West Kazakhstan

Dynamic models of the seismic,geological,and flow characteristics of a reservoir are the main tool used to evaluate the potential of drilling new infill wells.S...     

Value of Geologically Derived Features in Machine Learning Facies Classification

Mathematical Geosciences - The aim of this work is to demonstrate how geologically interpretative features can improve machine learning facies classification with uncertainty assessment. Manual...     

Numerical Simulations of Tsunami Waves and Currents for Southern Vancouver Island from a Cascadia Megathrust Earthquake

The 1700 great Cascadia earthquake (M = 9) generated widespread tsunami waves that affected the entire Pacific Ocean and caused damage as distant as Japan. Similar catastrophic waves may be generated by a future Cascadia megathrust earthquake. We use three rupture scenarios for this earthquake in numerical experiments to study propagation of tsunami waves off the west coast of North America and to predict tsunami heights and currents in several bays and harbours on southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, including Ucluelet, located on the west coast of the island, and Victoria and Esquimalt harbours inside Juan de Fuca Strait. The earthquake scenarios are: an 1100-km long rupture over the entire length of the subduction zone and separate ruptures of its northern or southern segments. As expected, the southern earthquake scenario has a limited effect over most of the Vancouver Island coast, with waves in the harbours not exceeding 1 m. The other two scenarios produce large tsunami waves, higher than 16 m at one location near Ucluelet and over 4 m inside Esquimalt and Victoria harbours, and very strong currents that reach 17 m/s in narrow channels and near headlands. Because the assumed rupture scenarios are based on a previous earthquake, direct use of the model results to estimate the effect of a future earthquake requires appropriate qualification.     

The 1994 Shikotan earthquake tsunamis

The 1994 Shikotan earthquake was one of the greatest earthquakes in recent years with a magnitude ofM _s 8.0. A tsunami survey was conducted by Russian and U.S. geophysicists from October 16–30, 1994, less than two weeks after the earthquake. The survey results and a numerical hindcast simulation are reported. Tsunami focusing effect at locations supposedly sheltered by the island chain is discussed. Based on the obtained data, tsunamis which attacked Shikotan Island are characterized as long waves (the order of 10–20 min wave period) with a positive leading wave. Possible consequences of the positive leading wave form are discussed in relation to the observed minimal destruction of beach vegetation and relatively small transport of marine sediment onto the shore. The high-quality tide-gage record in Malokurilskaya Bay indicates the occurrence of a 53 cm subsidence at the site.     

First results on determination of cosmogenic 36Cl in limestone from the Yenicekale Complex in the Hittite capital of Hattusha (Turkey)

We have measured ³⁶Cl in three rock surfaces of the Yenicekale building complex in Hattusha (Bo?azköy, Turkey). Hattusha was the capital of Hittite Empire which lasted from about 1650/1600 to 1200 BC. At Yenicekale, Hittite masons flattened the summit of an outcropping limestone knoll to form an artificial platform as the foundation for a building. Next they built a circuit wall along the lateral precipices of the flattened bedrock platform. We took one sample from the limestone bedrock platform and two samples from limestone building blocks of the circuit wall for cosmogenic ³⁶Cl analysis. Calculated exposure ages are 20 ± 1 ka for the sample from the bedrock platform and 24 ± 1 ka and 52 ± 2 ka for the circuit wall blocks. These exposure ages are significantly older than the age expected based on the estimated time of construction between 3.2 ka and 3.7 ka. We conclude that the sampled surfaces contain significant inherited cosmogenic ³⁶Cl. We cannot directly determine exposure ages for the building complex based on these three samples. On the other hand we may use the measured concentrations to determine how much of the rock was removed from the platform during flattening. To this end we modeled the variation of ³⁶Cl production with depth at Yenicekale using the results from the bedrock sample. We conclude that the Hittite masons removed only around 3 m from top of the limestone block. This means that the volume of rock removed from the bedrock platform is significantly less than the volume in the circuit wall atop the platform. They did not gain enough rock from this flattening to make the building. In agreement with this, the first results of our detailed microfacies analysis indicate that many of the building blocks are not of the same facies as the underlying limestone and must have been quarried elsewhere. Although we were not able to exposure date the Yenicekale complex due to the presence of inherited ³⁶Cl, our data suggest that Hittite masons excavated (most of) the building stones not at Yenicekale, but in quarries outside of Hattusha and then transported them to the construction site. These quarries have not yet been identified.