Global sensitivity analysis through polynomial chaos expansion of a basin-scale geochemical compaction model

We present a model-driven uncertainty quantification methodology based on sparse grid sampling techniques in the context of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (GPCE) approximation of a basin-scale geochemical evolution scenario. The approach is illustrated through a one-dimensional example involving the process of quartz cementation in sandstones and the resulting effects on the dynamics of the vertical distribution of porosity, pressure, and temperature. The proposed theoretical framework and computational tools allow performing an efficient and accurate global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the system states (i.e., porosity, temperature, pressure, and fluxes) in the presence of uncertain key mechanical and geochemical model parameters as well as boundary conditions. GSA is grounded on the use of the variance-based Sobol indices. These allow discriminating the relative weights of uncertain quantities on the global model variance and can be computed through the GPCE of the model response. Evaluation of the GPCE of the model response is performed through the implementation of a sparse grid approximation technique in the space of the selected uncertain quantities. GPCE is then be employed as a surrogate model of the system states to quantify uncertainty propagation through the model in terms of the probability distribution (and its statistical moments) of target system states.     

Mud‐rich delta‐scale compound clinoforms in the Triassic shelf of northern Pangea (Havert Formation,south‐western Barents Sea)

In recent years it has become clear that many shallow‐marine heterolithic and mudstone‐dominated successions are deposited as mud belts forming part of subaqueous deltas that are related to major fluvial sources either upstream or along shore. Here the Havert Formation is presented as an ancient example of this kind of system. The Havert Formation in the south‐western Barents Sea represents shelf margin clinoforms consisting predominantly of heterolithic deposits. Sediments were mainly derived from the east (Ural Mountains), but a smaller system prograded northward from Fennoscandia. The Havert Formation holds a lot of interest due to: (i) its stratigraphic position, directly above the Permo–Triassic boundary and contemporaneous to the emplacement of the Siberian Traps; (ii) the fact that it represents the first siliciclastic input in the south‐western Barents Sea and it shows interaction between Uralian‐derived and Fennoscandian‐derived sediments; and (iii) its hydrocarbon potential. This study is focused on a detailed sedimentological analysis of cored intervals of the (Ural‐derived) Havert Formation, in combination with seismic interpretation, well‐log correlations and palynological analysis of the Havert and overlying Klappmyss formations. The cored intervals belong to the shelf environment of the Havert shelf‐margin clinoforms (300 to 500 m thick). This sedimentological analysis distinguishes six facies associations, spanning from tidally‐influenced channels at the shoreline to mud‐rich subaqueous platform and foresets of the subaqueous delta. Seismic lines and well‐log correlations show the larger‐scale evolution of the Ural‐derived Havert Formation, characterized by episodes of low‐accommodation and high‐accommodation. The palynological analyses provide the first detailed study of the Havert Formation in the Nordkapp Basin, revising its depositional age in the region as Induan to early Olenekian (Smithian). Furthermore, they strengthen the environmental interpretation; palynofacies present on the shelf record flora of tidally‐influenced coastal plains, whereas the palynofacies in the deep‐water slope contain only amorphous organic matter.     

Retrieving lateral variations from surface wave dispersion curves‡

Surface wave analysis is usually applied as a 1D tool to estimate V_S profiles. Here we evaluate the potential of surface wave analysis for the case of lateral variations. Lateral variations can be characterized by exploiting the data redundancy of the ground roll contained in multifold seismic data. First, an automatic processing procedure is applied that allows stacking dispersion curves obtained from different records and which retrieves experimental uncertainties. This is carried out by sliding a window along a seismic line to obtain an ensemble of dispersion curves associated to a series of spatial coordinates. Then, a laterally constrained inversion algorithm is adopted to handle 2D effects, although a 1D model has been assumed for the forward problem solution. We have conducted different tests on three synthetic data sets to evaluate the effects of the processing parameters and of the constraints on the inversion results. The same procedure, applied to the synthetic data, was then tested on a field case. Both the synthetic and field data show that the proposed approach allows smooth lateral variations to be properly retrieved and that the introduction of lateral constraints improves the final result compared to individual inversions.     

Collisional enhancement of Hi Balmer lines in photoionized nebulae

Collisional excitation of neutral hydrogen atoms can significantly increase the intensity of Balmer lines with respect to pure recombination. If this effect is not taken into account, the abundance analysis of these objects returns biased values, and the bias may be significant if accuracies better than a few percent are required. The most affected objects are young, metal-poor Hii regions, due to their comparatively high temperatures. To date, estimates of collisional enhancement have been based on tailored modeling of individual Hii regions. In this contribution, I describe an ongoing effort to develop a general calibration suitable for application to large samples of objects. Emphasis is placed on the uncertainties affecting the resulting predictions.     

The Early Cretaceous coal‐forming plants of southern part of East Siberia and Russian Far East

For the first time the plants that gave rise to the Early Cretaceous coals of Transbaikalia (Khilok, Chita‐Ingoda, Bukachacha, and Turga‐Kharanor basins), Amur River region (Bureya Basin), and Primorye region (Razdolnaya River and Partizansk River basins) have been obtained. The plants that produced coals mainly belong to the ginkgoaleans (Pseudotorellia, Sphenobaiera, and Baierella), bennettites, and conifers having pinaceous, taxodiaceous, araucariaceous affinity, as well as extinct cheirolepidiaceous and miroviaceous plants. A parallel palynological study has identified a number of the same elements in addition to the cyatheaceous, gleicheniaceous, osmundaceous, and schizaeaceous ferns.     

Optical Counterparts of Undetermined Type <Emphasis Type="Italic">γ</Emphasis>-Ray Active Galactic Nuclei with Blazar-Like Spectral Energy Distributions

During its first four years of scientific observations, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) detected 3033 γ-ray sources above a 4 σ significance level. Although most of the extra-galactic sources are active galactic nuclei (AGN) of the blazar class, other families of AGNs are observed too, while a still high fraction of detections (～30%) remains with uncertain association or classification. According to the currently accepted interpretation, the AGN γ-ray emission arises from inverse Compton (IC) scattering of low energy photons by relativistic particles confined in a jet, which, in the case of blazars, is oriented very close to our line-of-sight. Taking advantage of data from radio and X-ray wavelengths, which we expect to be produced together with γ-rays, providing a much better source localization potential, we focused our attention on a sample of γ-ray Blazar Candidates of Undetermined type (BCUs), starting a campaign of optical spectroscopic observations. The main aims of our investigation include a census of the AGN families that contribute to γ-ray emission and a study of their redshift distribution, with the subsequent implications on the intrinsic source power. We furthermore analyze which γ-ray properties can better constrain the nature of the source, thus helping in the study of objects not yet associated with a reliable low frequency counterpart. Here we report on the instruments and techniques used to identify the optical counterparts of γ-ray sources, we give an overview on the status of our work, and we discuss the implications of a large scale study of γ-ray emitting AGNs.