Drought projection based on a hybrid drought index using Artificial Neural Networks

The Tarim River Basin is a special endorheic arid drainage basin in Central Asia, characterized by limited rainfall and high evaporation as common in deserts, while water is supplied mainly by glacier and snow melt from the surrounding mountains. The existing drought indices can hardly capture the drought features in this region as droughts are caused by two dominant factors (meteorological and hydrological conditions). To overcome the problem, a new hybrid drought index (HDI), integrating the meteorological and hydrological drought regimes, was developed and tested in the basin in the work. The index succeeded in revealing the drought characteristics and the ensemble influence better than the single standardized precipitation index or the hydrological index. The Artificial Neural Network approach based on temperature and precipitation observations was set up to simulate the HDI change. The method enabled constructing scenarios of future droughts in the region using climate simulation of the GCMs under four RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP5 project. The simulations in the study have shown that the water budget patterns in the Tarim River Basin are more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. Dominated by temperature rise causing an accelerating snow/glacier melt, the frequency of drought months is projected to decrease by about 14% in the next decades (until 2035). The drought duration is expected to be shortened to 3 months on average, with the severity alleviated. However, the region would still suffer more severe droughts with a high intensity in some years. The general decrease in drought frequency and intensity over the region in the future would be beneficial for water resources management and agriculture development in the oases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Pleistocene-Holocene paleolimnology of three north-western Russian lakes

The vegetation history and development of three different types of lakes, lakes Valday, Kubenskoye and Vishnevskoye (northwest of the East European Plain) were reconstructed using paleolimnological techniques. Watershed vegetation demonstrates a close connection with climate fluctuations: gradual expansion of the southern broad-leaved trees to the North during the Holocene with the maximum extent during the climate optimum (8000–5000 BP); and their subsequent retreat afterwards; followed by the extension of spruce during the cold and dry Subboreal time; and dominance of pine-spruce-birch forests in the Subatlantic time. The Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate changes resulted in lake-level fluctuations and other ecosystem changes. Valday Lake was formed ca. 12,500 BP as an oligotrophic, deep water basin. The lake level decreased during the dry Boreal, then increased again during the humid Atlantic period. The large shallow Kubenskoye Lake was formerly a part of an ice margin lake, which was then separated (ca. 13,000 BP) and developed into the Sukhona Basin with an outflow to the northwest. During the Atlantic, the outflow direction changed to the east. As a result, the ancient Sukhona Lake disappeared and Kubenskoye Lake formed in its modern size and shape. Vishnevskoye Lake, on the Karelian Isthmus, was formed at the beginning of the Preboreal after the disappearance of the Baltic Ice Lake. It was flooded by waters of the Boreal Ancylus transgression of the Baltic Basin and had become a small eutrophic lake by the time.     

Anomalous birefringence in andradite–grossular solid solutions: a quantum-mechanical approach

The static linear optical properties (refractive indices, birefringence and axial angle) of andradite–grossular (Ca₃Fe₂Si₃O₁₂–Ca₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂) solid solutions have been computed at the ab initio quantum-mechanical level through the Coupled Perturbed Kohn–Sham scheme, using an all-electron Gaussian-type basis set. Geometry relaxation after substitution of 1–8 Al for Fe atoms in the primitive cell of andradite yields 23 non-equivalent configurations ranging from cubic to triclinic symmetry. Refractive indices vary quite regularly between the andradite (1.860) and grossular (1.671) end-members; the birefringence δ and the axial angle 2V at intermediate compositions can be as large as 0.02° and 89°, respectively. Comparison with experiments suffers from inhomogeneities and impurities of natural samples; however, semi-quantitative agreement is observed.     

High‐resolution synchrotron X‐ray fluorescence investigation of calcite coralloid speleothems: Elemental incorporation and their potential as environmental archives

Synchrotron high‐resolution and micro‐X‐ray fluorescence elemental mapping of two coeval coralloid speleothems from Lamalunga Cave (Italy) are complemented with petrographic, morphological and microstratigraphic studies. The importance of these speleothems relies on their direct and indirect association with a complete Neanderthal skeleton (‘Altamura Man’) found inside the cave. The coralloids grew discontinuously between 64·6 ka and the Holocene and reveal exceptionally high concentrations of Mg, Sr and Si, particularly on convex surfaces, where evaporation is more intense. The incorporation of trace elements depends on several factors including location, shape and geometrical evolution during their growth, as well as climate and environmental parameters. This resulted in calcite precipitation with Sr compositions from 100 to 1200 ppm and an average concentration of 7000 ppm Mg. An unusually high Si content (up to 16%) is possibly derived from volcanic ash transported as particulate and in solution inside the cave. The most common fabrics observed consist of non‐fluorescent elongated columnar calcite forming clean isopachous bands and fluorescent fibre‐like crystals associated with laminated, lenticular bands high in Sr, Mg and Si. Variability in Sr, Mg and Si concentrations appears to induce fabric changes in the coralloids. Elongation and lattice distortion of the crystals was found to coincide with high Mg concentrations. The transition from compact elongated to open to fibre‐like, is here interpreted as due to high concentrations of Si and Sr, which are preferentially incorporated in the speleothem at crystal boundaries and intra‐laminae. It is here inferred that coralloid fabric changes and their elemental content potentially record local rainfall variations through time, with the clean compact calcite marking high infiltration and open fibre‐like and micrite fabrics recording dry periods.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Limestone Provenance in Roman Lime‐Volcanic Ash Mortars from the Villa dei Quintili,Rome

Roman mortars were collected from the Villa dei Quintili in Rome, an archaeological site consisting of numerous edifices from nine construction phases dating from the 2nd century A.D. to modern times. A multianalytical approach was used on 34 mortar samples to infer the evolution of production techniques over time and to identify the source area of calcareous raw materials used in the preparation of the lime. Optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy coupled with an energy‐dispersive system, and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry were used to study the samples. The major and trace element data were compared with the compositions of two types of limestone samples (Calcare Massiccio and Calcare Maiolica) collected from the Cornicolani Mountains. The results suggest that the technological practices and the calcareous raw materials used for lime production remained unchanged over the time period considered (2nd century A.D. to 3rd century A.D.). The compositions of lime‐related particles in the mortars match those of Calcare Maiolica, which suggests its use as raw material for lime production. On the whole, the results are in agreement with data from existing literature regarding both the use by Roman builders of specific raw materials for the mortars’ production and the relative supply area.     

Differential Hydrogeological Effects of Draining Tunnels Through the Northern Apennines,Italy

Water inflows are a major challenge in tunnelling and particularly difficult to predict in geological settings consisting of heterogeneous sedimentary rock formations with complex tectonic structure. For a high-speed railway line between Bologna and Florence (Italy), a series of seven railway tunnels was drilled through turbiditic formations, ranging from pelitic rocks with thin arenitic layers over sequences including thick-bedded sandstone to calcareous rocks showing chemical dissolution phenomena (karstification). The tunnels were built as draining tunnels and caused significant impacts, such as drying of springs and base-flow losses at mountain streams. A comprehensive hydrological monitoring programme and four multi-tracer test were done, focusing on four sections of the tunnel system. The tracer tests delivered unprecedented data on groundwater flow and transport in turbiditic aquifers and made it possible to better characterize the differential impacts of tunnel drainage along a geological gradient. The impact radius is 200 m in the thin-bedded sequences but reaches 2.3–4.0 km in calcareous and thick-bedded arenitic turbidites. Linear flow velocities, as determined from the peaks of the tracer breakthrough curves, range from 3.6 m/day in the thin-bedded turbidites to 39 m/day in the calcareous rocks (average values from the four test sites). At several places, discrete fault zones were identified as main hydraulic pathways between impacted streams and draining tunnels. This case shows that ignoring the hydrogeological conditions in construction projects can cause terrible damage, and the study presents an approach to better predict hydraulic impacts of draining tunnels in complex sedimentary rock settings.     

Impacts of climate change on flow regime and sequential threats to riverine ecosystem in the source region of the Yellow River

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on flow regime in the Upper Yellow River (UYR) basin that is one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in the world. These impacts will most possibly exert negative effects on the habitat availability for riverine species. Thus, it is necessary to understand the alteration of river flow regime under climate scenarios. In this paper, we use the modified hydrological model HBV in conjunction with three general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) to address changes in flow regime under climate change for the UYR basin in the mid-term (2050s) and end-term (2080s) of the twenty-first century. Flow regime is quantified using the Indicators of hydrological alteration approach. Thereafter, the potential threats to riverine ecosystem in the UYR basin are identified based on the projected alterations of various flow characteristics and their ecological influences. The results showed that the magnitude of monthly flow would increase during the dry period. The date of the annual 1-day minimum streamflow will likely shift toward earlier time under different scenarios, and significant increases in magnitude of annual minimum flow of different durations were detected under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the 2080s. In addition, assessments of the modification degree of the overall flow regime revealed that climate change would remarkably modify (medium level) the overall flow regime in the UYR basin, particularly by the end of the twenty-first century or under the high emission scenarios. Besides, destruction of habitat and reduced availability of food induced by substantially increased hydrological instability in the 2080s would make two endangered fishes more vulnerable in the UYR basin. These findings provide insights into potential adaptive countermeasures for water resource management and environmental system restoration in the Upper Yellow River.     

Export fluxes of biogenic matter in the presence and absence of seasonal sea ice cover in the Chukchi Sea

Drifting sediment traps were deployed at 9 stations in May-June (ice-covered conditions) and July-August (ice-free conditions) 2004 in the Chukchi Sea to investigate the variability in export fluxes of biogenic matter in the presence and absence of sea ice cover. Measurements of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate nitrogen (PN), phytoplankton, zooplankton fecal pellets, and the stable carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C) of the sinking material were performed along Barrow Canyon (BC) and a parallel shelf-to-basin transect from East Hanna Shoal (EHS) to the Canada Basin. POC export fluxes were similarly high in the presence (378±106 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) and in the absence of ice cover (442±203 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) at the BC stations, while fluxes were significantly higher in the absence (129±98 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) than in the presence of ice cover (44±29 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) at the EHS stations. The C/N ratios and δ¹³C values of sinking organic particles indicated that POC export fluxes on the Chukchi continental shelf were mostly composed of freshly produced labile material, except at the EHS stations under ice cover where the exported matter was mostly composed of refractory material probably advected into the EHS region. Chl-a fluxes were higher under ice cover than in ice-free water, however, relatively low daily loss rates of Chl-a and similar phytoplankton carbon fluxes in ice-covered and ice-free water suggest the retention of phytoplankton in the upper water column. An increase in fecal pellet carbon fluxes in ice-free water reflected higher grazing pressure in the absence of ice cover. Elevated daily loss rates of POC at the BC stations confirmed other indications that Barrow Canyon is an important area of carbon export to the basin and/or benthos. These results support the conclusion that there are large spatial and temporal variations in export fluxes of biogenic matter on the Chukchi continental shelf, although export fluxes may be similar in the presence and in the absence of ice cover in highly productive regions.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).